EastonSN+

Thanks for this. The only good snowfall winter on the list for CPK is 64/65.

Wondering if other factors are negating the effects of the typically warm phases of the MJO (laster year was cold despite the MJO). Perhaps the responses we are used to seeing historically will no longer be the case..

Maybe I need a visual, however, why are the trade winds distributing specifically to the WPAC? Also does that mean the EPAC will remain generally cooler than average due to upwelling?

I don't think we can determine which factor will eventually cool the WPAC until we can pinpoint what is causing it (as opposed to other areas).

Do we know exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps (as opposed to any other region like CPAC or EPAC)?

Correct. For me I still like watching the approaching rain/snow line and seeing how much accumulation we get before we flip. Sometimes up to 8 before a flip to drizzle occurs.

JUST looking at the CMC and GFS model runs, this does have a 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 feel to it. If so this could be a big winter for the 84 corridor (or at least December).

May take a few years but they will be back.

Why wouldn't they continue to cool? Through history all sections of the pacific have had warming and cooling trends.

Seeing the waters in the western Pacific continue to cool is a great sign. One MET who was likely joking said "for the rest of our lives" regarding the "boiling" westpac warm pool. Also seeing the potential for a clear pass through phase 8 in December is another good sign. All in all good trends.

The western PAC continues to cool, great sign.

IMO there is way to much overestimating the SE ridge already. Also, its the RNA pumping up the SE ridge, not the other way around. Last year the SE ridge was not a major player, since we had a +PNA.

This is great. Thanks!!

It seems as though the affected area is CPK/LGA through SNE. Eastern PA as well. I am in awe of how much snow the Delmarva region has been getting. I remember growing up it seemed to be always warm/wet cold/dry. I would watch the weather channel (before internet lol) and they would use the phrase "its just a cold SNAP for the northeast, temperatures will rebound nicely......". The delmarva area did extremely well back then also.

That's what makes it so incredible IMO. If the east coast was in a 2011/2012 multi year repeat then this would be expected.

Thanks Don! What makes this even more incredible IMO is the fact that during this time frame New Orleans had a bigger snowfall event of greater than 4 inches (and Ocean City Maryland had multiple events).

The NYC average was 21.91 inches during the 30 year period from 1970 to 1999. From 2020 to now the average is 15.84. We are not far off. The average was 32.35 from 2000 through 2020. That has skewed the average higher as well as expectations.

Its the RNA pumping up the SE ridge, not the other way around.

2000 through 2018 was dominated by a positive PNA pattern which created troughing in the east the majority of the time. Unfortunately this has flipped to predominantly negative since 2018, hence more east coast ridge. We will get back to a positive PNA multi year pattern at some point. Just have to be patient.

Yeah unfortunately the RNA creates a SE ridge, and without blocking can facilitate cutters. This really feels like the old fashioned warm wet, cold dry years of the past. Last year we had plenty of cold but remained dry.

If I remember correctly, there were a number of storms that just missed central park with snowfall. Even though I believe the city ended up around 4 inches for the year, with subtle differences it could have been much more. Of course the giant blizzard ending April 1st that year was too warm and east for Manhattan (all the other borrows did ok). However if that same storm occurred 2 weeks earlier, Manhattan could have had a solid 6 to 10 inches. Going into this year with low expectations, I would definitely roll the dice with a 96 / 97 repeat.

True, although we cant guarantee that any given winter won't turn into 2020/2021 or even better.

Still counts for the winter season total.

We still have enough cold air. We may lose a few inches on changeover events, however offset that with more intense storms with higher moisture. In theory, IF the SE Ridge is truly more powerful, less suppressed events. I don't think we will average less snow than 1970 through 1999, and if we do it will be due to randomness.

Central part had 10 inches of snow between two systems in March.