EastonSN+

He is taking the EPS verbatim which if correct is good for us.

The EPS does not have the troughing the same way the gefs does as the mjo is weak in phase 8 and the gefs while it is moderate on the eps. We have seen a positive PNA so far this winter so hopefully we get a positive PNA this time or at least a more east-based negative EPO. However I do agree if the gefs is correct then the snowfall opportunities will not be as great as with the EPS is currently showing.

Yeah he's just pointing out what the EPS is showing which is a very good look if it goes away that's more an issue with the modeling.

The end of the gefs run. Taking a step back from a trough in the West that blocking looks really good. Looks like the reason for the difference between the EPs and a gefs out west is the fact that the mjo is extremely weak in phase 8 on the gefs however is moderately strong on the eps.

Ended up with 0.5 in today. 1 inch on the year in Easton Connecticut.

Ended up with 0.5 in in Easton. 1 inch for the year.

Thanks for this. Out of curiosity why did 16 17 have a wall to wall winter in a La Nina. We had the thunder snow event in February that year and a major snowstorm in March. This also happened to a much greater extent in 95 96 and 2010 2011 (I know some think winter ended after January however we had two more snow events in February and March that year). Are there any signs to look out for that would indicate a winter like 16 and 17 in advance. Forky did mention earlier a weakening La Nina perhaps that's what happened in 1617 as well. Finally in the middle of Atlantic forum they are tracking the PDO and has stated that is rapidly rising and perhaps to go positive perhaps that happened in 1617 as well.

All three ensemble suites show a trough in the East Coast. Eps looks great. Gefs takes longer to get to a better look and has a much broader trough. G e p s looks good as well more in the middle however closer to the eps.

Central Park should get close to 2.5 for the season.

Cold and dry warm up and rain cold and dry again.

Fairfield Norwalk and Darien all reported 27 inches on that storm and I think Bridgeport reported a 15.1 LOL

Yeah if I am not mistaken the optimistic period starts past the 5th of January so perhaps we will have a brief trough out west before we get to another trough East. Will be interesting to see which way the EPS leans.

Yeah they tend to cause systems to be shredded when the blocking is too far south and we do not have a ridge out west.

Gefs gets to the following look which must be due to a spread in The ensemble members. If this look were to verify I would think that the risks would be systems being shredded or weak into the South. On a side note I can never tell if forky is teasing the forum or has legit concerns LOL.

GEPS did not take a step back. Let's see what the EPS shows.

I think the last two Winters where we had a trough to Baja causing the southeast ridge to link up with the negative nao is entrenched in a lot of minds. We can snow with a trough out west as long as it's not as deep or position too far west.

Agreed. Going out to the end of The ensemble runs there tends to be a lot of spread which also may be showing the disparity between a few members of the model suite trying to put a trough out west. Also one can't expect a good look to last throughout the remainder of the winter however it could also be a reload period. LOL I must admit given the last two Winters I am also consciously thinking that something will go wrong.

Agreed not sure what looks wrong on the gefs geps or eps. At the very end of the EPs and gefs there is a slight look of a trough out west however that's at the very end and the models may be trying to revert back to a la nina look may never materialize or materialize later.

Great post the last couple of years had a trough to Baja west of the Rockies.

Perfect

Best start to Winter in 3 years

Another positive is unlike the last two blocking episodes this time we're not fighting a massive deep RNA to Baja causing the southeast ridge to link with the nao.

It's really good to see the same setup appearing in all three ensemble guidance.

In my opinion the 2018/2019 winter was underrated for snowfall. We were below average snowfall wise but not by that much. The two March snowstorms really made up for a lot of ground.

0.5 inches in Easton Connecticut.