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EastonSN+

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Everything posted by EastonSN+

  1. EastonSN+
    I believe that was the last winter where we had an above average snowfall December.
  2. EastonSN+
    Hi Don, I believe Central Park stands at 11.6 in of snow for the last two seasons and this season so far. There is a chance that DC can reach a foot which would eclipse the 3-year Central Park snowfall total. I wonder if this has ever happened where DC's 3-year snowfall average has eclipsed Central Park.
  3. EastonSN+
    Agreed however in this situation there is some remnant blocking, and with the cold air in place it could change over to rain, but you would at least have some front and snow. Better than having what we have now and that's a trough with the access right over us which is dry.
  4. EastonSN+
    Still need to watch the following time frame, as this would be our best opportunity where the RNA finally starts to head negative, which will help pump the southeast ridge a little and fight the suppression. Cold air is in place ahead of the storm in this situation.
  5. EastonSN+
    Looking at the below it does not seem like the mjo wave is as strong so it might have limited effects on our pattern.
  6. EastonSN+
    Ironically the new look is a better opportunity for us with regards to snowfall then the old one, which is obviously suppression given the access of the trough. I cannot wait for this jet extension multi-year period to end, however as we have seen some patterns can last more than a decade so this may last a few more years.
  7. EastonSN+
    The problem with the last two years is the RNA was incredibly negative. If the RNA was moderately negative or lightly negative with that nao block we could have had a couple of KU events. Ironically, if we had an RNA in this period, we would likely have seen decent snowfall if not more. On a side note this is like 2019 I believe, when the Middle Atlantic did better than us.
  8. EastonSN+
    We would need the nao to stay negative and it could be a big snowfall opportunity for us, however if the nao does not cooperate then yes it's pretty much over until March.
  9. EastonSN+
    Not only that but the Middle Atlantic may have more snowfall in this storm than Central Park had in 3 years combined LOL. Depending on how this year ends up. To be clear I still believe we have a good opportunity mid-month when the blocking relaxes however if it fails then we will be in the warm phases of the mjo and we have to wait for the reload so punting some of February is never good.
  10. EastonSN+
    We may end up with negative departures for December and January with little to show for it. Just speaking of the mjo which looks weak, it will be heading to the warm phases by the end of the month. Hopefully we get back to the good phases by March where the shorter wavelengths may help with suppression. What's wild is the MA may have more snowfall this year than the combined snowfall for Central Park in 3 years combined including this year.
  11. EastonSN+
    This is what I was fearing. Maybe it comes back North a bit today but running out of time.
  12. EastonSN+
    More concerned that the trends might be reversing
  13. EastonSN+
    If you look at Connecticut Northwest New Jersey and Pennsylvania the precept shield definitely moved South. Also check Washington DC.
  14. EastonSN+
    I will be honest I was hoping for a more sizable shift North or a larger precipitation shield.
  15. EastonSN+
    Hoping here in Southwest Connecticut.
  16. EastonSN+
    The 18z euro is out?
  17. EastonSN+
    The issue now is wave spacing otherwise it would have came up the coast that low pressure to the West is affecting it.
  18. EastonSN+
    Think the gefs came a bit north
  19. EastonSN+
    Yeah I was joking on that one. Will be interesting to see what the ensembles say
  20. EastonSN+
    LOL uh oh we started the north trend a day too early.
  21. EastonSN+
    Going to be an interesting Euro run
  22. EastonSN+
    Seems we need the primary to hang on longer
  23. EastonSN+
    I really hope it arrives, even if for a short time. We really need to shake things up.
  24. EastonSN+
    Agreed on the nao part. What I like about this look if it is to come true is we do good with a slight RNA and negative nao. What we want to avoid is the last 2 years where we have an epic trough to Mexico. Slight RNA and a good nao block and we could be talking big snow.
  25. EastonSN+
    Way out there but this is a much better look if we want an overrunning event. At least better than what we're seeing now.
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