EastonSN+

Hey Don hate to bother, however once the pattern flips to Pacific flow dominace do you feel that we will have "breaks" in the pattern favorable to cold/snow in Jan and Feb, or so you believe we are heading towards a 2011 2012 type pattern stability? 2016 2017 would be a good example of the former. For the latter of course with the "fluke" scenario and March volatility taken aside. The reason I personally feel better about this winter is the warm pool in the NE Pacific and the blocking that for some reason is showing itself.

Yeah don't think a quarter of that falls this way

Let's hope we score something before it happens.

Maybe a far enough west shield like this. A quarter of the snow total and would be extatic.

One north one south then the Nina pattern. Ugh I hope not

U know how this will play out for us. Misses just to the east then Nina takes over and we look to March.

Coastal CT gets less than inch while LI gets 2 to 4

Ended up with 12 in SW CT. Eastern CT got slotted.

Perhaps a trailing wave following a cutter like January 2012

Looking at 2006 how does Fairfield get 27 and Bridgeport 12.5. the towns are literally right next to each other makes no sense. 4 seasons u do a snowfall map for this one yet? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_2006

It's amazing how inconsistent that period was for southern CT. Here in the SW part ended up with 2 great pasters. Think you were in between the 2 feet to your east and the 5 to 12 band to your west. Agreed that long island storm was a terrible bust. Ended up the snowiest March in my life (snow 0. 10. 9.5. 2.5) barely beating out the 20 from 4 storms in March 2015.

Which party winning leads to a colder and snowy winter?

When there is a fast flow without blocking i.e. 2015 longitude seems to help ema. Strong blocking seems to lead to lows closer to coast. Some examples Dec 2010. Dec 2000. Maybe I am off somehow in reasoning and it's just random storm tracks. Western and eastern New England seem to be equal in snow distribution over time.

Yeah I know it's a good head start for sure. However 2011, 1989 and 2018 can happen just as easily as 1995. 2012. 2002. Got clobbered early all the aforementioned years and ended up with a split between great and terrible winters. Maybe all the la Nina, missing NAO talk has me extra tentative. Probably can throw out 2011 and 2002 as the background state is completely different. I did enjoy the snow the other day though. Hopefully we all end up with a solid winter - rooting for everyone.

Works for me.

I could see that. I am skeptical of EMA getting a great snowfall winter though. I am thinking 75% across most of New England with exception of Main NH and Vermont which will be 125%. Hopefully I am wrong and it's 95 96 or 10-11.

We do better than EMA when there is a negative NAO. Obviously we are not getting that this year sooooo we enjoy not snow blowing.

Incredible storm for SW CT. Although hated losing power for 4 days for 5.5 inches. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2012/29-Oct-11.html

I hope NYC does well this year also. Love when everyone shares in the wealth. Think you had them at 90% of average which is good.

This is what happened during the 2011 Halloween storm. I lost power for 4 days trees and limbs down everywhere. Down here snowed a lot but did not stick.

Is this the first time SNE has seen snow from the remnants of a hurricane?

97-98 here was 3.5. 1 inch less than 01-02 of 4.5 All snow here sw CT

11-12 would be an improvement snowfall wise over last year.

Thanks for your analysis, you have been spot on recently. Although this time I hope you are off that was a terrible winter snowfall wise in lower half of SNE.

I somehow lucked out with that Western CT strip that gave me 9.5 and Bridgeport 5.5 on the March 13 event. 0 10 9.5 2.5 April storm 6