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Everything posted by EastonSN+
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Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15. Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms. This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8. Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.
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Ensembles (GEFS and GEPS) look good however GEPS breaks down the look about the 27th while GEFS looks like it's starting to at day 15. Hopefully we get one if those great pattern change storms. This good stretch hit the minute the MJO hit late phase 7 and now 8. Looks to move to phases 6 and 7 again. Will probably get to 8 again for March for a grand finale.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Technically they say two to 4 now (they upped it) but I doubt it. -
Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
NWS says I get no accumulation at all, starting as a rain snow mix. LR looks good! -
Hey - last time we baked in February (2018) we had a 4.5 inch snowfall between 70 degree days followed by the snowiest March/April pattern of all time! Let's do that again.
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Agreed disappointed with the ensembles.
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Not a fun GFS run. Kind of dry with a couple clippers. Will probably change.
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In all honesty I think we do good in March. We are getting this cold stretch the minute the MJO hit phase 8. The EURO has the MJO gout back to phase 6 and 7 right as the weeklies flip. Beyond that it looks like it's heading back to 8 in time for March. Therefore we should get another stretch like this. Also yes, does not mean we can't score in Feb as we have scored in much worse like Jan 12 and Feb 18.
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I had more snow in 11/12 than I do so far this year. Brutal.
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Hope March rocks!
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We get crushed in March a lot. 2018. 2019.
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Yup this one is pretty well modeled this far out. TBH would rather it go out to sea than get flooded with wind.
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GEFS looks good to the end. Only negative I guess is the western ridge keeps migrating west to off the coast at the very end. Not too worried as if we do go back to phases 6 and 7 perhaps we can get back to 8 at the start of March.
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Yeah already punting here in SW CT. Looking ahead, hoping for more events while we are in phase 8.
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Just going by the events of the early 90s. Had this setup and usually was 1 to 3 followed by rain. The latest EURO snow map looks exactly like what I saw back then.
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This looks like a 1 to 3 followed by heavy rain for me. Meh. Focusing on the Long Range now.
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Still looks like March 1994. More interested in the LR at this point.
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Not saying we can't get a 1 to 4 inch snow sleet dump before we flip, but a complete snowstorm seems unlikely at this point.
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Issue on both is the position of the high. What's to stop this from coming due north?
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Teles look good on GEFS, MJO not loading though. Only downside I see is the MJO on the EURO quickly moves back to phases 6 and 7 by the 16th.
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Thanks Don. Would be disappointing given the favorable pattern, but we have scored big in unfavorable patterns while striking out in favorable patterns before.
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Teles look great moving forward. MJO on EURO only downside as it quickly moves back to phases 6 and 7. For some reason cannot get GEFS MJO.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
EastonSN+ replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Ugh ugly runs overnight. Starting to look beyond. Not much past this storm on the models BUT we are heading into the good pattern depicted on the ensembles. We wait. -
Extremely nice! Hope that look does not break down for weeks.
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If I could lock that in. Approx. 5 here on that map which is close to what I had March 1994 system (had 5.5).
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