EastonSN+

Pretty cut and dry from a historical perspective. Strong El ninos are either warm and relatively snowless or have a short snowy period inclusive of a major event. If we get that period then NC can easily reach above average snowfall. Basically an all or nothing HR hitter coming to the plate knowing 3 strikeouts are inevitable. However always that chance for a HR in the 4th AB.

Looking at this in more detail, the 1992 storm was never an ideal track for all snow in NYC/LI and SNE. This past event had a much more favorable track.

The track of the 1992 storm can be found here. Looks like the primary tracked inland to the DelMarva, stalled, then moved out which is why it rained in the beginning in SNE. Seems very different than the recent noreaster and if 92 followed the recent noreaster's track we would have been buried down to the coast at least. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

Its a risk / reward climate here. The chances of breaching 95/96 for the snowiest winter is also on the table any given year due to our proximity to the ocean (noreasters) and latitude. I can see both happening in my lifetime. In fact the snowiest winter was only 2 years prior to the latest snowfall year of 97/98

Will be very warm. However even 97/98 had snow. Receiving 0 accumulating snow is almost like predicting no thunderstorms for the year. At least one ingredient, precipitation, will be in abundance. History has shown 2 great examples of well timed historic snowfalls in super ninos so I am all in for rolling the dice on a super nino. Our biggest risk for a shutout would be a season like 01/02.

It was a great elevation snowstorm. Even in CT the higher elevators received a lot.

Thw majority of the precipitation during the 1992 storm happened when the low was over the Chesapeake, the reason the first 2/3 of the storm was rain. When the low moved offshore we promptly turned to snow. The reason the snow totals were relatively low was a lot of it fell as white rain until the evening (I remember the storm very well as I was working at a grocery store pushing cwrts outside). This past storm the winds stayed NE/NNE until the storm moved west. Therefore would have been snow. When the storm ocluded we would have actually turned back to snow. February 2010 is a good example where the CT coast was rain UNTIL the storm moved SW and we turned to snow even with the precip coming in from the SE.

Please see here (link below). This is a rain track for us as it was inland for the majority of the storm. The noreaster we just had was off shore for the majority of the event. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-11-12-1992

1992 went inland over the delmarva which is why the first part of the storm was rain. This one stayed east of us keeping the winds NE to NNE which would have likely been snow (barring a 1998 type el Nino warm environment).

I feel like we lucked out big time. Was expecting widespread outages and trees/large limbs down. No branches down here.

Happy the power outages were not as many as expected. Did not lose any branches.

Winds have been occasionally gusty here in SWCT. Still no high wind warnings however dreading what's coming. Hoping the winds are somehow weaker here.

I hope its wrong.

I really hope this underperforms. Otherwise power outages will be substantial.

NWS still caps gusts to 46MPH here in SWCT. Nothing wind warnings.