Rd9108
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Everything posted by Rd9108
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Fwiw Bernie isn't sold on this being a coastal. He actually thinks it has a better chance of being a borderline cutter which looking at the guidance sounds insane. However he is the expert, that gfs solution is crazy though. -
Yep honestly give me like 3 or 4 and some snow falling on Christmas and I'd call it a win. Don't need a HECS
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Unfortunately gefs is south east of the GFS. Still a lot of time but this just feels like an I95 storm.
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Need it to go negative sooner and close off. Still 200 hours out but I still hold firmly that my prediction is this is a coastal.
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Let's be honest, this will most likely be a coastal storm. However, if we can score a few inches before Christmas I'd say it's a win.
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Gfs and cmc both show some snow with the northern stream. Both phase too late for us but overall the 500 looks a lot better.
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Late phase on the gfs but the northern energy drops a few inches and then the temperatures plummet to single digits on Christmas day.
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Euro finally joins the party and has a late phase bomb. Something to track.
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Maybe too early to say but it's looking like the chances of snow on the ground for the 25th are looking better and better.
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Hasn't happened since 93. This won't verify lol.
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NAM is still showing a sleet situation I don't believe it for one second. I guess something to monitor.
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Gfs has more of a look that I think will happen. It's more of a strong front that brings in heavy precip. I believe we had something similar two years ago in December. It would be enough for white Chirstmas.
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Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention it's ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z.
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The next storm is dead. We now turn our focus on what transpires after the storm cuts and brings in the arctic air.
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Gfs a tick better at 0z. Need this to trend some more or else it's gonna be some cold cold rain.
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Trends aren't great. It's back to a cutter with a very late transfer. Still time but we need to see some positive trends asap.
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Euro crushes us with around a foot. Don't get too excited yet. We know how these go. I fully expect this to shift back east unless block is weaker.
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Idk 0z Euro might be best case scenario for us. We maybe need to bite the bullet and accept that east of us will get 20 for us to get 10. Regardless looks like the pattern is finally changing.
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Miller Bs don't really excite me. With rhat being said we may atleast see some accumulating snow from the northern energy like the 12z shows. I just have a feeling that this will be further east with the bigger snows. Still a lot of time and big changes will happen.
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0z gfs. Still a long way out
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Lol it's an 18z run384 hrs out this will change for better or worse.
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We shall see if something like this comes to fruition but EPS is showing a -EPO, -NAO/AO and the PNA not as positive. Now of course we have seen this how the pattern is slow to change but it seems like guidance is starting to like the idea of it actually happening.
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Something maybe to pay attention to if this happens to trend south. Never know this far out
