Rd9108
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Everything posted by Rd9108
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And there it is the notorious cutter. Once a cutter shows up it never goes away. -
I do find it hilarious reading the other forums and them obsessing over every little detail. Meanwhile I just want a little but of snow. Hopefully the 0z runs are good I gotta get some sleep.
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Still a long way out. We are all waiting for our next 20+ storm but in the mean time a few inches before Christmas would do.
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Gfs is about to show about the best storm we possibly could get here.
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6 days out and people are throwing in the towel. Come on everybody should know better than that. Big changes are gonna happen run to run.
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Meanwhile east coast weenies are losing their minds over the models at 6+ days away.
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This should be fun to track. Honestly seems like the ceiling for this is really huge. Somebodynis gonna get a huge storm the question is where. Idk how good Bernie is but he's still sticking with his west of 95 call.
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I'm not sure he's doing another Twitter live at 730-8 so I may listen and see his thoughts if I remember. He said the models are doing the windshield wiper effect.
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The ensembles should have some insane solutions.
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Fwiw Bernie isn't sold on this being a coastal. He actually thinks it has a better chance of being a borderline cutter which looking at the guidance sounds insane. However he is the expert, that gfs solution is crazy though.
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Yep honestly give me like 3 or 4 and some snow falling on Christmas and I'd call it a win. Don't need a HECS
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Unfortunately gefs is south east of the GFS. Still a lot of time but this just feels like an I95 storm.
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Need it to go negative sooner and close off. Still 200 hours out but I still hold firmly that my prediction is this is a coastal.
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Let's be honest, this will most likely be a coastal storm. However, if we can score a few inches before Christmas I'd say it's a win.
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Gfs and cmc both show some snow with the northern stream. Both phase too late for us but overall the 500 looks a lot better.
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Late phase on the gfs but the northern energy drops a few inches and then the temperatures plummet to single digits on Christmas day.
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Euro finally joins the party and has a late phase bomb. Something to track.
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Maybe too early to say but it's looking like the chances of snow on the ground for the 25th are looking better and better.
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Hasn't happened since 93. This won't verify lol.
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NAM is still showing a sleet situation I don't believe it for one second. I guess something to monitor.
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Gfs has more of a look that I think will happen. It's more of a strong front that brings in heavy precip. I believe we had something similar two years ago in December. It would be enough for white Chirstmas.
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Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention it's ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z.
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The next storm is dead. We now turn our focus on what transpires after the storm cuts and brings in the arctic air.
