Rd9108

Credit to MAG I dunno if I’d call it straight-forward haha, at least the part that ultimately matters (snow on the ground). GFS is getting good snow to the LSV and even SW PA because it focuses the preceding warm advection snowfall there instead of a thinner stripe across northern PA as the higher res short range models and the Euro have been showing. I tend to think there will be better coverage with a system like this to deliver something closer to a Euro type solution but I’m not currently buying the full GFS type scenario that has some of the best totals actually in southern PA and some of the Sus Valley. I mentioned in my post in the last page that will have to see how radar trends go tonight and how well the meso guidance is modeling it. The WAA stuff is the key part of seeing any notable accums (advisory type amounts) in southern PA.

MAG had a good discussion in the central thread. Look towards western Kentucky and the Ohio River to see what happens there to maybe get an idea if the gfs has a clue or not.

So in simple terms, this threat is dead.

Interesting on the HRRR that initial finger isn't as stout but there is a sign of some extremely heavy snow right after that.

It's the lack of KPitt. Somebody has to make up for his negativity.

What's the best guidance for seeing this?

Again 18z 3k says zero chance of that happening. I know its not modelogy but how can you see this and think we are getting anything more than an inch or so.

Trust me they're the experts and they forget more about weather than I'll ever know but every short range guidance is trending worse. I can't see how they could up the totals unless you mean they expect some back end too. I'd be absolutely shocked if we got more than an inch tomorrow.

They must have tried some Fentanyl that is all over the city.

Yeah this one is cooked. I don't see how we even see an inch out of this on the front end.

Looks like 3k NAM is slightly better than the 6z. Maybe we can get a surprise.

I was looking for the one I made so I'm stealing this one

Well hopefully this can trend better but man just north of the city gets hit hard on the NAM Looks right to me lol

Idk the Euro hinted at this too yesterday. It may not last long but we could get a good period coming up here.

Yep and most of the storms are east of us for a change. Hopefully other guidance catches on because I'm sick of the mud!! Just had to give my one dog a bath because of the mud.

Shhh I'm using reverse psychology

0z will most likely cut totals down and continue that trend. We don't win against warm air we just don't.

This one is officially done lol

I mean this is the difference a day makes for this threat. A week away this thing could go anyway at this point.

I like being the under dog

That's what's confusing me is the NAM usually is the one super amped and warm. Hopefully the Euro holds serve here at 12z.

We don't usually win in these scenarios so I'd temper expectations and anything that falls is a win.

NAM alittle over 4 inches and then dry slot? Looks like a little more just north but who knows what's gonna happen with this type of set up. I'm just excited we may actually see some legit heavy snow and not just a squall.

Glad people in our area are finally enjoying some winter weather. Hopefully it's the rest of the sub forums turn next. One final gfs map before bed.