Rd9108

This would be hilarious and sad at the same time.

And yet this thread hasn't really gotten much bigger.

End of range NAM has a little wave that rolls through and drops a nice band of snow just south of the metro. We've seen these types of waves before so this outcome wouldn't shock me. Regardless it's south of the 12z run.

If we had days like today I wouldn't mind the lack snow/cold. 40s and heavy rain gets extremely old.

Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim.

Storms actually south of us for a change on the GFS. Cmc more amped and actually gives a decent event. We track

I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week

Yeah I saw that, first time I haven't looked at the 0z models at night. Went to sleep at 1030 and didn't bother to look when we had an accident at 2. Looks like we may get a small dose of winter and might even get a decent event.

Maybe some surprises in some localized areas. Idk who remembers the one year in November we had some lake effect squalls and some areas got like 5 or 6 inches because of some heavy bands. Should be a nice a winter day regardless.

Yay more mud

Are you KPitts alt? You've been awfully negative lately.

You trusting the gfs past 5 days is doomed to fail. It could end up being 80 or 20 and heavy snow. Gotta wait to see what happens.

Sheesh it's snowing good, should be a fun commute.

I was just making a joke but most likely it would be a cold and miserable month. Snow would be possible but snow in April is gone in an hour.

Writing was on the wall whenever we kept seeing the frontogenesis band get weaker and further north on the mesoscale models. I warned people who texted me that this was most likely gonna bust. Don't worry we will get blocking in April.

Wheeew I also spent too much time on this. At this point it might not even the temps that get us, it might be the lack of precip before the temps surge. Tough winter.

MAG with some interesting thoughts. Wish we had some more Mets around here. You go to the northeast threads and there is 4+. Regardless always good to get some thoughts from an expert. Most guidance has been supportive of at least a couple inches generally from the metro north, which I’d feel okay about. The big question is the south of the metro and how much warm advection precip can actually manage its way up into the rest of SW PA early, like especially prior to and near 12z. It’ll snow anywhere if there’s a more expansive precip shield that gets into PA early enough. Even without much of that, the main part of the system with the direct southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico could still yield a start as snow with pretty heavy rates even in further SW PA but obviously time would really be limited there before the column temps get routed and then the dry slot arrives.

Sheesh might be a non event here when it's all said and done. I guess just hope for a bust.

Must be a bunch of backside

I hate being that guy but the 0z HRRR has like no precip hitting agh County until it changes to rain.....

Credit to MAG I dunno if I’d call it straight-forward haha, at least the part that ultimately matters (snow on the ground). GFS is getting good snow to the LSV and even SW PA because it focuses the preceding warm advection snowfall there instead of a thinner stripe across northern PA as the higher res short range models and the Euro have been showing. I tend to think there will be better coverage with a system like this to deliver something closer to a Euro type solution but I’m not currently buying the full GFS type scenario that has some of the best totals actually in southern PA and some of the Sus Valley. I mentioned in my post in the last page that will have to see how radar trends go tonight and how well the meso guidance is modeling it. The WAA stuff is the key part of seeing any notable accums (advisory type amounts) in southern PA.

MAG had a good discussion in the central thread. Look towards western Kentucky and the Ohio River to see what happens there to maybe get an idea if the gfs has a clue or not.

So in simple terms, this threat is dead.

Interesting on the HRRR that initial finger isn't as stout but there is a sign of some extremely heavy snow right after that.