10 to 15 day ensembles have no skill, the 10 to 15 day ensemble mean looked good two weeks ago as does today’s….as I said many times statistically it is worse than a coin flip
Massive block means little when it links up with the SE ridge and strong negative PNA. It’s very possible we link up the ridges and can go very above normal for the second half of December
Lots of ppl just are seeing red in Greenland and expecting a good pattern. Not going to happen, SE ridge will join up with the blocking and dump the PV into the west