Blizzard of 93

Here is the 12z EPS for the 6/7th chance. Lots of options on the table with several of the low locations taking the low track under us and several that look like the current Op. This is not over according to the ensembles.

I agree, ensembles are the way to go for a few more days.

Even considering the 12z Euro Op at 500 for the 6/7th chance, the Southeast ridge is muted and there is ridging off of the coast but centered well to the northeast. There should be plenty of room for the storm to dig a bit more and slide west to east instead of heading to the lakes.

Luckily we have 6 days to go. Lots of time for a few small changes to help the snow cause for us.

The 12z Canadian also has a bizarre progression of the Jan 6/7 storm. It can’t make up its mind as to where to put the low as it approaches PA. We are very much in the game for this one. We just need the pattern to stay a little more progressive & we will be in business.

The Canadian is painfully close at 12z for Monday. We just need a little bump north.

Can you post it if you get the chance?

It is a little bizarre to me as to why the GFS is cutting the January 7th storm. There appears to be be decent high pressure to the north with some ridging out west. This low is relatively weak at 1003 so it’s not like this is some strong storm screaming towards the lakes. I like the Euro’s handle on this at this time.

This is then how the 6z GFS ended at day 16 with still the colder look continued.

Yes, long range 6z GFS shows more of the sustained colder look with the trough in the east with Winter storm opportunities.

Indeed, good thing is the Euro is all over it and has shown some good snow hits the last few days. This is only 6 or 7 days away, so not fantasy range!

I’m going to bump this good news from overnight so no one misses it! Happy New Year’s Eve!

Here are the snow maps for 1/7 Happy New Year's Eve ! Kuchera & 10:1 maps

Very good 0z Euro run indeed for 1/7…

Congrats Pittsburgh!

Unfortunately the 0z NAM went the wrong way.

Almost time for 0z runs to begin.

Yes, indeed…very interesting…

EC = close to something really good later next week. There is some ridging out west and there is plenty of cold High pressure to our north & northwest. As it is, the storm transfers from western PA to just north of NYC. It would not take much to have a little more flat solution or a slightly earlier transfer to bring us the snow goods.

Thank you! Yes indeed…. We have been on a good run lately.

40 years of history show many bad years mixed in….

I think we have mostly a good group here. The activity is at an all time high. It will be more fun when Winter gets good. I love this place!

Yes, this is true. Several good quality posters left the Mid Atlantic & New York thread over the last few years. I think they were overwhelmed by the negativity and got tired of fighting it. @psuhoffman is posting much less than other years. @Bob Chill is mostly gone. Those 2 were the main reason that I joined this place. I lurked for years and read their detailed comments everyday. I learned a ton from those guys. The New England thread is sadly following in their footsteps this season. The good quality posters are being overwhelmed with all of the negative & mostly ridiculous posters that add no value to the discussion. The New York thread is mostly unreadable. I feel bad for @MJO812 . He looks for snow chances, but gets trashed everyday for trying to be positive & look for snow. Sadly, this is the way of the world on social media and the way of society in general. Everything is the here & now with instant gratification. There is little regard for history or knowledge.