Blizzard of 93

The 12z Euro also has the 27th/28th storm that the GFS has shown a few times in recent days. The 12z Euro has Warning snow for us, but the bullseye this run was in MD & northern VA.

Yes, the 12z GFS is the middle ground with a few inches of snow next Saturday. The Euro was a little further north with more rain, while the Canadian was a bit south.

We have the chance at a good ending to this Winter. The -NAO is showing up across most of the models & it is not getting pushed back in time.

It’s pretty bad everywhere in east, but my original comments were pointing out the 5 & 10 in Harrisburg & Williamsport compared to the other disastrous totals in the region. It’s not good anywhere outside of Buffalo!

Not saying that whatsoever…you are reading into my comment way too much… Just pointing out the levels of bad are all relative. Our Winter is certainly bad, but it could be worse.

Low of 22 in Marysville this morning. 29 currently.

Lol, it’s bad, but my point is that it’s all relative. The people in DC or NY would be a little happier with 5 or 10 like Harrisburg or Williamsport have so far.

Lol, The 5 at Harrisburg & the 10 at Williamsport don’t look too bad on this list compared to the misfortune of others on this list.

The 6z GFS still has the follow up storm on the 27th/28th but it’s good seeing the snow impacting areas just to our south at this time.

The NAO looks to begin impacting the pattern later next week & beyond.

Good to see the NAO still forecast to head negative beginning later next week on the Euro & GFS ensembles.

The 6z GFS is still on the next Saturday snow to mix train.

Soon these type of forecast discussions will be written for CTP!

The 0z Euro also has the next Saturday Winter storm chance with a good front end thump of snow changing to a mix.

The 0z GFS still has the next Winter storm chance on the 27th as well with a storm that transfers from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic coast.

0z GFS still has the Winter storm chance for next Saturday. Snow to mix this run. Advisory type of event potential this run.

Let’s see what 18z says… We need to get the first event potential to hold within 5 days this time.

That’s why I said if we got 15-20 by early April that it would make the Winter become slightly respectable to me when all is said & done. That would mean that MDT would have a 20 plus inch snow Winter, which would still be below average, but it would be a more respectable snow total when compared with other poor snow years over the decades.

According to this, if we extrapolate his ideas & factor in our CTP interior location that can help us, we should get 15-20 more inches of snow by early April. That would turn a disaster Winter into slightly respectable season if we ended that strong.

The beginning of this quote is JB discussing the fast movement of the MJO.

For the record, Joe Bastardi had not thrown in the towel. Here is part of his post from earlier this week. He is all in on a strong finish to this Winter! “Well something is different. Its not spending 15-20 days in warmer phases It moves through twice as fast as average this time, instead of half as fast as average. 2) The seasons are changing with the seasonal change. 3) The La Nina is fading. 4 There is a stratwarm. So it looks like there are differences. So to be clear. Since the I-95 corridor has been snowless and this may be the warmest winter on record in some of these places, I am going to put numbers down for a test case Since everything is done over/under, here are mine Average temps of IAD, DCA, BWI PHL EWR LGA, the park, JFK. ISP PVD and Boston March 1-April 15. -5 Snow Iad/DCA 12. BWI 14. PHL 15. New york blend 18. PVD/Bos blend. 20 So April 16 will score it up”

The 18z GFS total snow map would make @paweather pass out!

Many models & ensembles have liked this period on & off the last few days.

Only 1 week away.