Jump to content

Orangeburgwx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,592

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Orangeburgwx

    January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    i was thinking the same thing actually---it would slide out but its already giving us heavy now even from where its at. If it gained just a bit of latitude....
     
    anyway...its 10 days out but its interesting
    Funny enough everyone on the Southeast forum needs the opposite to happen. Still, everyone from northern Florida (Jacksonville ish) to New York needs to watch close

    Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

    Winter 20-21 Discussion

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    Here is a weird question for everybody. When I look at the EPO index, it is clear the positive phase is the one that is correlated to cold in the Central/East. But then I see sites where the EPO in the negative phase is supposed to that. I know what the EPO is and what it does, but did CPC change the definition of which phase was positive? There seems to be a common split, where some people refer to the -EPO as "good" for cold in the East and others refer to +EPO as "good" for cold in the East, even they are clearly talking about the same thing, where one is named incorrectly.
    This is Nov 2014, 2018, 2019 which all have major +EPO phases on the CPC index. But according to a site like the one below (not picking on them it just popped up), should be a -EPO. When people talk about a positive or negative EPO...are people even talking about the same thing? Phases seem to be defined oppositely in some places.
    EPO.png&key=82969831acbddb6f0ba181174fdcc3374e11dbe6c4983ff1ceb82b5df97dc43f
    https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data
    2014   1.11   0.31   1.24   0.05   0.77  -0.69   0.33  -1.03   0.20  -0.66   3.21 -99.902015   1.27   1.18   1.13  -0.35   0.49   1.72   0.23  -0.28  -1.38   0.33  -0.94 -99.902016  -0.35   0.23   0.24   1.47   0.14   1.26  -0.36  -0.42  -1.41  -0.84  -1.43 -99.902017   0.39   0.21  -1.04   1.04  -0.72   0.50   0.00  -1.65  -0.46  -0.58   0.41 -99.902018   0.66   0.23   0.30  -0.18  -0.98   0.05  -0.16  -0.78  -0.83   1.17   1.42 -99.902019   1.07   1.20   2.11   0.67   0.32   1.74   0.10  -1.18  -1.50  -0.47   1.93 -99.902020  -0.60  -1.79   0.44   1.54   0.04  -0.69  -1.97  -2.39   0.06   0.57  -0.66 -99.90

    https://www.wisconsinwx.com/teleconnections
    NegativeEPO.png?t=1518811296795%26width=691%26name=NegativeEPO.png&key=1d0c9dd0a3b6dd9ce529bc10509a4638c36e398d2f923187c6b1e17e014952c5

    The fact we need a ridge over Alaska means it needs to be the orange and reds on the 500mb maps

    Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    The GEFS maps from College of DuPage use the old GFS rather than the FV3. Meaning it could be more or less reliable depending on how you feel about the FV3 lol
    I personally wouldn't put too much stock in this depiction. The "fingers" of snowfall seem to point to an issue resolving borderline temperatures during the time skips. Plus the pattern of snowfall would imply that this is the back end of the anafront, rather than post-front flurries from the back-end energy like the RGEM shows. 
    Why doesn't CoD use the FV3?

    Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

×
×
  • Create New...