Orangeburgwx
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Posts posted by Orangeburgwx
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Yeah, remember Florence a few years back? It RIed into a 4, was forcasted to be a 5, and as it was doing it's first EWRC shear destroyed the core. This reminds me of thatI think it's easterly shear.
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959.8
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82 kt surface in NW eyewall
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10-15 nm is right in the Cat 5 golden zoneEyewall looks much improved on the last few scans from the Cayman Islands. It’s 175+nm away but the eye appears to be 10-15nm wide. Also, recon just took off. Should arrive near 0z.
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Hah! Got blocked for calling him out on Delta going sub-900
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Sunrise is 7:23am...8am eastern, 7am central
It will be landfalling at DM...
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12z tomorrow is what, 8am?That shear is probably why the core is messy. Per GFS soundings, shear decreases again tonight and through landfall. Landfall is ~12z tomorrow so we've got one more diurnal max to really make it. First landfall call for me is 916mb/145kt.
EDIT: I'll add the core being messy now is bad news for cancun. We won't get an EWRC with a messy core.
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Laura did, when it had that merger EWRC, then when it completed the pressure tankedThat's a valid point. Not often you see a pressure rise correspond with a decent uptick in winds
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Unless that 4nm eye grew, which would bump the pressure up140mph now. So obviously still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure actually came up though which is odd
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How long til next recon?
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Yeah but sub 900?Jim Edds is legit though.
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And so the fear mongering begins...
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Other observation:
Pressure went up by 1mb, and the FL winds were lower
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Slight bit of shear, or maybe the eye is just that small that it accounts for the shift
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4 nm wide eyeInner structure looks pretty disorganized on satellite for a 130mph 954mb.
Is the eye so small that it's difficult to see at that resolution or something else?
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No offense butMy friend/coworker lives in Cozumel. What implications are we looking at for that area? She is staying put.
IS SHE INSANE?!
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VDM:
4nm wide eye
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11am yesterday: 45/1002
Now: 130/954
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That NE/SE pass is about to be a freaking gold rush...
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Uncontaminated at that, pressure plummented almost 3 full mbs too (956.7 to 954.0)There's a 118 kt and 132 kt flight level wind on that pass.
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That is a full 4 Mb drop from earlier955 mb from the dropsonde.
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Meso hell...RE:[mention=3675]Superstorm93[/mention]
The second image here shows some intense mesos embedded in Delta's tiny eyewall.
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Last pass: 956.7
Pass before: 957.2
Still dropping
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Major Hurricane Delta
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
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