Orangeburgwx

Short vid I made:

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No offense but that's a terrible pic LOL

Apologies for the poor quality

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I got light snow showers

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Light mix down here in Orangeburg (multiple family members around town have been texting me about it)

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When is the next SREF?

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Looks like an uptick in the mean actually, across the piedmont

GEFS cut back again

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Are the temp trends we have today a factor for Thursday? Cause TWC went with a high of 64, NWS 67, but it is only 56 here with a light rain. Will underbusting our highs now pay off later?

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Triple threat cage match

CMC/ICON/NAM vs. GFS vs. ECMWF/UKIE

Models are going to be swinging punches today, lots of shifts

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https://twitter.com/_jwall/status/1229745451144040450?s=20

6Z Euro (and ensembles) is drier again.  This is a trend that it keeps getting drier and drier.  NWS and local mets leaning heavily on this model given its record.  

I went to the grocery store today.  

6z 3km and 12km NAM... Both at hr60

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3am Disco:

&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front to slip south through the FA Wednesday, while upper energy shifts to our east. It appears that most of the precip will be shifting towards the south and east during the day. Cooler temps to also filter in behind the front. Slow moving front to remain to our south Thursday while another upper disturbance moves east across the region ahead of an upper trough digging into the region. A surface wave is progged to develop off the SE coast and move NE. Cooler air will continue to work into our FA from the strong parent Canadian high to our NW while guidance continues to indicate precipitation for our FA Thursday into Thursday night. Some questions about precipitation type Thursday nt, mainly to our NE. Latest model ensemble means indicate some light snow accum across our E/NE FA. Local top down tool indicates a period of rain/snow mix Thu nt for the central and east FA. Confidence limited due to several key factors in our local perfect storm approach for significant winter weather not being met. Main issue is cold air not being in place before the onset of precip but rather is coming in as the precipitation/moisture is shifting out. Even if a period of light snow occurs, surface temps appear will be above freezing and warm soil temps would lead to melting and reduced impacts. Will leave in rain/snow mix for Thu nt but will not indicate snow accum at this time.

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UKMET show anything?

Never loaded for me on pivotal..

ECMWF still not on board. Even more suppressed. Until it is on board it would be wise to believe its solution. Looks warm as well.

To those who want it:

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I know in past years I've seen the occasional post mentioning increased data gathering around this point in a storm's timeline.  Has anyone heard if the NWS is planning to get additional information into the initialization of the models??  Or, would this system not impact a large enough area for that??
 
Edit - It got really quiet in here... spooky!!!

I'm getting 2001 flashbacks... #PrayersforNewman

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GSP 
EDIT: Sleet was about the same as the snow, but picture won't post....sigh

18z GFS suites

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I don’t see the NAM?

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Some things I’m seeing;

Starting with the bad:
- I don’t know how much of a northwest trend is really *possible* given that the shortwave is coming from the northwest. A shift north could mean a flatter system overall and could mean less precip.
- Euro + UK combo saying no is a tough hand to bet against
- Betting in a late blooming coastal always scares me, a lot can go wrong with transporting moisture that far away from the LP

Now the good:
- Hi-Res models haven’t gotten a good crack at this yet. They’re not just good for thermals, they’re *much* better at rendering topography. Can’t emphasis enough how much of a night and day difference a mountain range looks on the gfs compared to the nam 3k. I mention that because any shortwave gets stretched and contracted in the mountain west and that has implications downstream. Our shortwave is being held back in dang Utah may look a little different in the hi-res stuff
- We have a wildcard I haven’t seen mentioned yet: this shortwave. It’s currently between Oregon and Hawaii and flies into Cali in 3 days like a bat out of hell. Pay attention to this storm; if it holds on some more of its integrity it could be a nice little boost to our Rockies shortwave

I’m pretty neutral on this storm, I’m not completely optimistic but it still has a lot of upside.

This should be taken into consideration when watching runs, not just in winter, but across the board...

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Man, I don't know grit.  I'd understand if we were on the fringes of the juice, but no model has significant precip near us that I can tell (maybe the nam long range).  You expecting a powerful NW trend here? Storms that are legitimate usually have some models in our court.  I'm just not seeing anything close.