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Orangeburgwx

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Posts posted by Orangeburgwx

    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    They have a lot of wind , too! 
    I won’t be dissatisfied with lack of snow up there! 
    Watch this be the one winter we get a 73 repeat and Iowa gets firehosed

    But still, stay safe Mack, and don't feel afraid to drop in once in awhile!

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    • Thanks 1

    Tropical Storm Bertha

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Two in May already -- has to at least tie a record? ... Seasonal forecast thread is open, simplified format this year, no big amount of work required, just your seasonal numbers. 
    Thanks man, keep up the good work

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    Tropical Storm Bertha

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Up to 50 mph at landfall. 1004 mb. Man this thing was winding up coming ashore! Pretty impressive rapid organization! This would've made a run at a hurricane with just 12 more hours
    5mb drop in 30 minutes, 8 hours at the most it would have been a cane

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    Tropical Storm Bertha

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Second named storm of the 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

     

    BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bertha Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022020 830 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

    ...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

    LOCATION...32.7N 79.4W

     

    ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA

    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

     

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------

    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of South Carolina from Edisto Beach to South Santee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning, in this case in the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

     

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------

    At 830 AM EDT (1230 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 79.4 West. Bertha is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track the center of Bertha will move onshore in the warning area in the next few hours and the move inland across eastern and northern South Carolina later today and into west-central North Carolina by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Bertha is expected to weaken to a tropical depression after moving inland and become a remnant low tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rain accumulation of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches across eastern and central South Carolina into west central to far southeastern North Carolina and southwest Virginia. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area in the next couple of hours. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

     

     

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    • Like 1

    April 23rd Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Yeah I'd be a little surprised if we didn't end up with a 15% area at some point given how large the 10% is right now.
    Split the difference on the area, that will put the 15% over Eastern GA and the SC midlands

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    April 23rd Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    We're in HHH this month and have been through 2 significant severe weather events. Hoping an MCS forms and slows that warm front, keeping the instability down tomorrow PM. I guess it's better than the inch of snow we got at our house from a rare April lake effect event!
    Several models busted the MCS into a QLCS.. that does not bode well for the hope for a weakened threat

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    April 23rd Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Looking like consensus is still sticking with a faster(rather than slower) evolution with this system keeping the ceiling much lower than it would be if it were to slow down significantly. Definitely still time for that, but seeing the 12z suite, I think the NAM is almost certainly the outlier on the slow end, GFS an outlier on the fast end. 
    Inside 72 hours I would trust the NAM over the GFS...

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    April 23rd Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    What is this Oklahoma? Dryline barreling through the SE just miles away from the ocean with solid lapse rates is absolute trouble.  Also the lift in place will create more of a string of pearls type setup instead of a bunch of spinning QLCS.  
    Other than warm front placement I don't know what there isn't to like about tornado chances on Thursday, and violent ones at that.  With such good thermodynamic properties and lift, SRH on the order of 300+ will be more than sufficient to produce some monsters
    Dixie Alley has been Tornado Alley this year

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    • Like 2

    April 19th Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    it looks like outlfows keep the best moisture south...
    some models have two warm fronts...the one with the best moisture remains south until very late
    if the model radar is correct then pattern recognition is for training outflow dominated sagging storms along the warm front with flooding and wind threats
    the exceptions may be early over east Texas and in to LA before they form a blob and late tonight 
     
     
     
    So you saying that the outflows will soare SC? or could there still be tornados?

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    April 19th Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Sounding like storm mode is big concern.
    It is since the HRRR has a stick up its rear end and keeps mixing out too much low level moisture... Lot of people are going to be in for one hell of a nasty wake up call

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    April 19th Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Pressing X to doubt moisture mixing out that severely so close to the Gulf with unimpeded return flow. Not like the temps are in the upper 90s or 100s either.
    Which will only amplify the threat is the moisture doesn't mix out

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    • Like 1

    April 19th Severe Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted


    It would be helpful to those of us still learning or who do not know as much bad the rest of you if people could explain why something is bad.

    Saw another post in this thread with a picture and the caption “Not good” (or similar).

    My first thought: why doesn’t it look good?
    Second thought, “Crap - it covers my area”.

    Hammer


    . Pro
    Any time you see "PDS Tornado" on that Skew-T, that has a potential to drop EF4s, the ones that tore up Mississippi last weekend had that in their Skew-Ts

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