Orangeburgwx
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Posts posted by Orangeburgwx
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GFS suites hr84
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GFS still strung out, temps being the main issue
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That band across the SC midlands mix or ice?12km NAM Simulated Radar at hr84
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6z GEFS
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Yeah, but more ensembles with at least a .1" on the ground, it is almost March, take what we can getLooks down from earlier
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GEFS
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This was mine... Cold rainNAM soundings for N GA mountains at HR 84. Surface wet bulb is below freezing. Just somehow someway need some sufficient moisture to run into it.
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HP went from 1046 at 18z to 1047 this run... FWIW
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Subtle tweaks...
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850mb level Gulf Swirl (think it is a HP since it barbs are clockwise), doesn't extend down to the surface, but I wonder if that will have an impact... 12z and 18z also showed it and was stationary through all 3 runs, but is it something to watch?
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This is the 850mb temps, again using 12z, 18z, 0z for 0z Thursday
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NAM trended colder each of the last 3 runs for 0z Thursday (which is key). Below is 12z hr84, 18z hr78, and the latest 0z hr72.
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It will be an overrunner too, need it to bring down the cold column to the surfaceLooks like the models are shifting from an overrunning event , to a coastal storm? Or I guess it could be both?
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Boom, moisture slightly later (overnight Thurs/Fri)
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850s stayed about the same from 6z, 700mb temps actually went below Savannah this run, and the 2m temps were a couple ticks colder (CLT went from 46 at 6z run to 39 at 12z run). When ensembles get to range we will see...
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6z suites on the GEFS, inside 5 days guys let's bring this home!
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GEFS came back to life a bit from earlier today
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"And warmer"Trend on last 3 runs of the Euro Ensemble Mean for Thursday aftn. More precip to the north and warmer
Everybody better hop in the "rates will overcome" boat, because that is going to be a big issue unless the system slows by 24 hours to allow colder air to sink in.
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And here is the result for 18z
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Simple, here is next week's threat, GEFS threw down a second snow storm in fantasy land at d13-14Then you should have posted another day/time snapshot to explain why. Step up your game
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11/20 for me too, I will take token flakes but man some of those look good...About 11 (~55%) members hit my general area. This looks like either a hit or a miss storm overall. Not much in between
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Euro is Dr. No for a reason...Well the Euro killed this discussion for now
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We still outside 5 days... We wait
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Couple GFS ensembles hinting at snow at hr204
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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020
in Southeastern States
Posted
hr108, bunch of suites held back the vort until the coldest air seeped in
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