Orangeburgwx

Surprisingly quiet in here!  Where did everybody go?    

Marco is a 993mb hurricane via latest VDM

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Marco is strengthening. 996.4 extrapolated and unflagged and non rain contaminated SFMR of 48, 49, 51, 52kts. FL max of 69kts.

Should be an interesting approach here. NE to SW center pass. SFMR gusts (rain contaminated) are pretty strong. 

Marco has a narrow window to get right with an enormous ribbon of shear just to the NW, but it looks like it’s continuing the gradual trend of getting its act together. Recon finding a lower pressure and some stronger winds, especially at FL. Today’s the day for this one to reach its peak intensity given the guidance for the environment ahead.

I don't buy anything beyond a 45 mph system here.

What the hell is going on with the GFS lately? Sheesh...

It's American thats why 

Wonder what that closed vort they found was... MLC?

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FWIW:

Earliest M named storm

Tropical Storm Maria 9/2/05

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That shows potential I guess but land interaction is going to inhibit it. The models, I think, are underestimating it a bit. Not a lot of shear or dry air and some good warm water.

If there were to be an Atlantic Patricia (and there will be in the next few years) it’s not going to recurve. A storm sub 890 and 200mph plus would occur in the SW Caribbean somewhere near the Caymans. That’s the the only area with MPI to pull it off. So it’s not escaping. 

@Floydbuster time to change the header to Tropical Depression 14

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Where  exactly  are the  super favorable  conditions? All i see is  ultra  bone  dry air, massive shear, and  super  upper  lows. Weak sauce at  best. Maybe  if  98L can survive the  super  unfavorable  conditions and stay intact as a wave  it  might  find  a  window somewhere. 

My guess  is the Euro will completely  drop 98L this afternoon. I still hold  out  hope sept 20-oct 10 Might be a  little  better and a real storm might  form. This remains an el nino pattern no matter what SST's are. If you  showed me this  picture and asked  me el nino or la  nina  i would say strong  el nino. Shear  from the east  pac will kill off 97L. 12Z gfs very weak. I  pay no attn to the  canadian. For the  peak of the season and the  supposed super favorable  conditions the  GFS makes  josephine  look like a cat5 compared to 97 and  98L. They are  barely  blips.

What?

Apparently the GEFS hasn’t been handling things correctly according to @MJVentrice on Twitter...

We will get that look in November of 2020 and again in April of 2021.We can't buy a -NAO in the heart of winter.

The NOGAPS makes Kyle a 958 mb Braveheart-Superstorm near Ireland in a few days.

Waves off of Africa are the main focus, but what about storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico. Living on the Florida Gulf coast, seems like these are the ones that catch us off guard and throw us into a sudden preparation.

Do the models for this year suggest anything out of the ordinary?
The SST Anomaly is above average right now in a large part of the Atlantic.

But what about other factors beyond my limited knowledge?
 
 

We now have Invest 93L

Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT:

Looks like a TS...

System has really faded on modelling, has more dry air to contend with that we thought earlier, and now looks to be shear-plagued until it gets to about the area of the Bahamas. Also may have limitations due to land impacts if something can even get going. The ceiling is much lower for this system than what it looked yesterday. Very similar setup that led to the demise of Gonzalo. Only thing I'll say though is these two back to back systems are priming the atmosphere somewhat. Next system coming off the coast seems to have a more moist environment ahead of it. In the MDR region, it seems it takes a wave train sometimes before a system can break through, especially early in the season. I believe these systems are doing just that.

So for a layman who enjoys trying to make sense of the models you guys post, is it safe to say there's about a 40-60 chance of a SE landfall with this? Or are there certain models which are assumed to be more accurate?
*disclaimer that I understand that where it will be in 9-10 days is just about the DEFINITION of unpredictable*

12z

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