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Orangeburgwx

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    Winter 2020-2021 whining thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    I have the sudden urge to play me some Fallout.
    Made a full version of the parody I did, hope everyone here on the board enjoys!

    For those who missed the first one, it is a parody of "Uranium Fever".
    -----------------

    Well, I live on down by the Carolina shore
    But I'm a winter weenie down to the core
    So I took a chance and made some plans
    To go find me some snowy lands

    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown
    Southeast winter, there is no cold air around!
    Pack up the truck, pick up my stake
    I swear I'll move to a northern state
    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown

    I caved in and bought Weatherbell
    On the prayer my goal prevailed
    I scanned through the models trying to find a spot
    And soon found one that looked like the jackpot

    I sped like a bullet as fast as I could
    Taking back trails in those Smoky woods
    When at last I arrived around the bend
    Trying to cash in on the northwest trend

    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown
    Southeast winter, there is no cold air around!
    Pack up the truck, pick up my stake
    I swear I'll move to a northern state
    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown

    I took stock as I set up camp
    Keeping my phone charged and oil in my lamp
    However the very next thing I knew
    That damned ridge had flexed and grew 

    I tell ya man, I started to sweat
    Fearing that this trip would only end in regret
    So I went to sleep to clear my mind
    Dreaming of seventy-three and eighty-nine

    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown
    Southeast winter, there is no cold air around!
    Pack up the truck, pick up my stake
    I swear I'll move to a northern state
    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown

    Dawn approached
    Morning came
    And the HRRR showed it was go time
    Steadying my nerves I looked across the sky
    Only to realize the NAM again had told a lie

    Thirty-three and rain isn't fun
    That ol' warm nose is a son of a gun
    Sighing in disappointment I packed up my gear
    Heading home until next year

    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown
    Southeast winter, there is no cold air around!
    Pack up the truck, pick up my stake
    I swear I'll move to a northern state
    Cause Southeast winter always makes me frown!




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    • Haha 1
    • Confused 1

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    06z GFS considerably colder than 00z with the Tuesday system. Has HP slightly stronger and further south and maintains a wedge look through the system. Verbatim freezing line stays on va border instead of shooting north in other runs
    This is something to watch

    Notice where the temperate change boundary line is on the 6z GEFS, the low tracks EAST of the Apps, up through Greenvillee9d761d8cf86ad57ee1cead1ebf7f986.jpg

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    It's hard to keep up with all the different scenarios over the next 4 days.  Would be a shame if my area got blanked (with cold rain again again again).  I want access to a site with more models.  What's the best site to pay for premium models?  (EPS, ECMWF, etc...)
    Weatherbell, $25/mo but man, you get a lot for your buck. (6z and 18z ECMWF are on there too)

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Totally agree, I remember a storm in Jan of 2016 where models were trying to run the low right through the wedge particularly the GFS. A day or so just before the storm it started going with the other guidance and running it around the wedge and redeveloping on the coast. I think the Nam may do well with this storm once we get in that time frame. 
    Will be in range tomorrow

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h.  Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. 
    Who would have ever thought we would need a weaker low to give us wintery precip...

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    In the old days, the wright weather days, you would've been banned for behaving like several people have behaved. We are, at a minimum, five days out. For anyone to believe we've reached our final destination with regards to this event is just silly. 
    No doubt about that, you see the 6z right? It brings ZR back into SC, which wasn't seen since 12z Monday. I am not buying that apps rubber because of how dense that arctic air is, but the more amped the low is the more likely it will cut, however a 995ish off the SC coast (if it went that route) would cause one hell of a headache

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