Orangeburgwx

Ice ice baby

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18z RGEM running now 

What's the next run, Happy Hour GFS?

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This is hr78 on the 18z, since it was hr84 on the 12z

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This is the ens average...

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6z EPS ticked about 2 degrees warmer at hr 144 compared to 150 at 0z

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18Z GEFS was also a bummer.  A ~6 F jump in average temperature at 1 pm from the 18Z yesterday in central NC .  The big cold was completely lost.  So I am assuming that the PV must be in the west this run.
That PV is driving me insane.

Amazing Run for the GFS! So many opportunities! 

December 12, 2020:
I thought Cameron would post it's wind data by now. But no.
Does anybody have the super secret access to share what the peak winds were here? It was recorded, but who knows what Cameron experienced. They are not posting.
 

Probably around 2 inches if I had to guess. 

It all melted. WTF???   I’m moving to Calgary. 

Model trends:
GFS: positive, several winter events and close calls. Probably most consistent modeling of late 
EURO: Most improved player award. Gets arctic air in. Great CAD look for Thursday/Friday system then a follow up system w/potential before arctic air moves in
Canadian: dumpster fire, no sugarcoating it 
ICON: improved. CAD signature and trended colder towards end of run

Wow...

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I like the looks through 126 
TW

EURO definitely coming in colder so far 

Baby steps out to hr78

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Oz EURO and EPS were a flaming dumpster fire

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on the flip side, the UKMet at hr144 loses the NE Pac ridging so the TPV gets hung up in Canada...

Is there something in the tea leaves about thunder and winter rains vs. Long term forecast? I have been hearing thunder off and on the last hour

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1046mb high

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On the GEFS, the current storm at hr66 (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run.  Another retrograding -NAO block?

On the GEFS, the current storm (just east of Novia Scotia at the beginning of the loop), deepens in the North Atlantic and helps to build ridging back into Greenland at the end of the run.  Another retrograding -NAO block?

18z back to the delayed look, go bucking figure

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Classic CAD

6z EPS gives us some legs out in the midwest compared to 0z, so there's that...

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If this trend were to continue the big dogs would come back.....