Orangeburgwx

Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?...

This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory.

A friend of mine on vacation in Germany thought it would be a good idea to gloat that he saw snow today...

Freaking LOS ANGELES got snow?!?! Screw you Nino!

FV3 vs. EURO vs. GFS... All showing cold in LR, question is who is going to win? With the shutdown over, hopefully the FVS rebounds

12z EURO with a 1061mb power bomb...

To anyone who has NFL Network... The new AAF really should be given a good look. It is football as it should be played

The government shutdown gave it a little more time to live...

Hell, Michigan

Shift it 100 miles SE and it will get the whole board down to FL involved

If JB varieties then the Browns are wining SB 54

I'm on the cutoff line again... Is it too much to ask?!?! Oh yeah that's right: 1)Never trust snow on models outside 48hrs... Even inside 48 always be skeptical 2)SER/WAA (warm nose) always prevails 3) CAE snow shield screws the entire state of SC, Savannah to Augusta, and from Charlotte through the triangle #rantover

In his defense, the ENSO collapsing and not producing the Modeki/weak Nino screwed over every single prewinter forecast...

At work so haven't had the chance to look at the 12z suites... But gonna take a guess that SC got burned on every model with no snow falling...

No, today's trends will settle the score #yougotNAMed

Considering we all love to chase unicorns (the models), if you could actually have one, what you name it? (boardwide question so anyone can answer)

Lmao TWC gives me 1-3" of accumation on the 2nd/3rd

Sunday, Feb the 3rd at 13:00 — Main run: 7.1 in — Ensemble mean: 0.1 in Maximum: 2.6 in 90% Percentile: 0 in Minimum: 0 in 10% Percentile: 0 in All times are local time (EST) Current run: 12z Now you see? That ensemble mean shows no support.

As if that 11" will verify

Not this time...

Literally just one week earlier

Gladly https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/south-carolina/snow-depth-in/20190203-1800z.html

I just did a profile match... It is downright eerie at how that snow gradient is nearly identical (but to a lesser extent) to the infamous 1973 Blizzard

11"?!?! Im gonna faint.