Orangeburgwx

I got my therapy, I write fanfics as a hobby XD

Couldn't bring those wetbulbs up...

12z GFS jumped on board, but is a day quicker (Jan. 30th)

To be fair, I copied that from the webpage... And this was my morning CAE disco: LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The region will remain between two winter jets over the weekend into Monday, with the northern branch over the Ohio Valley and New England, while the southern branch moves across the Gulf of Mexico. This will support surface high pressure and dry weather. Temps will start chilly on Saturday with lows in the 20s and highs from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. As the surface high slips southward, surface winds will turn to the west and southwest, allowing temps to become a few degrees warmer each day and night. The next cold front will be in the vicinity on Tuesday. Models and ensemble means are in impressively good agreement with timing for a system 6 days away, but they do differ on the amount of moisture coming with the front. The GFS and GEFS mean indicate a better chance for showers with the front than the ECMWF, but have kept it relatively simple for now with a slight chance in the southeastern half of the FA, and low end chance in the northwest. Models diverge much more significantly after that time, and bear watching.

Took a peek at the weeklies and you are correct, but comes back raging cold last half of Feb/early March... Par for the course for the Southeast

As the saying goes "I believe that is a vast understatement..."

Weather channel a week from today: Cloudy with rain and snow showers in the evening. Snow showers overnight. Low 28F. Winds NW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precip 50%. About one inch of snow expected

Artic high wavetrain, of course it will be dry like that

Hell no, got burned by the 28th, NOT doing it again! If it is still there in a few days I might

1.1" snow, .3" ice for me from that storm... Well that's gonna put me in the dark

Yeah we do... Question us can we pull it off?

Went on vacation

Swing and miss down my way too good buddy... High was 55°, only got up to 47°

My gut agrees with yours....

Oh I am, but still, that would be a total nightmare if that verified...

Man the end if that FV3 run was brutal... A 24hr ice storm for South Carolina

Look at the HP placement on the FV3. Savannah is not good for us

h5 is a strung out, suppressed mess... But it does try to spin up a weak low over Jacksonville

Right now it is only out to hr36, but that HP near Montana is a tick south and 1mb stronger compared to 6z

Because it is really hard to trust the NAM...

Grasping at straws here, but the 12z GFS looked a little better for the 28th...

digs myself a camp in the base of the cliff

Personally I think what screwed us most was the ENSO at the start of winter... went from a forecasted modiki/weak Nino to a weak moderate.

What the hell is going on with the h5 on the FV3...

Btw 18z GEFS was mountains only for this weekend...