Orangeburgwx

Southern edge is almost down to Columbia now... Let's see what the FV3 has in store

Sorry everyone if it seems that im being a weenie, will try to curb my excitement...

Banana high is a term used when a high (or pair of highs) bends around an area of low pressure and blocks it. It happened with Hurricane Florence and set it on a path to the Carolinas instead of OTS. The GFS has a track record (pun intended) for showing that BS about pile driving into HPs, it isn't going to happen, so the low will track further south as has been shown with both the GEFS (the GFS ensembles) and the EPS (Euro ensembles). That major suppression is why even my area is going to get at least SL/FL (Sleet or Flurries), I hope this helps.

Not a bad look this far out

Less than a week out and all indicies show both Carolinas getting something... So let's bring this one all the way home

73 was a Super El Nino... Just a reminder...

You serious?

Still heading due SW, this keeps going it might be a direct landfall in Myrtle Beach instead of sliding in to the north. Areas to the south end of the envelope just got put back on notice (I'm still under a TS Warning until further notice).

Cranky is a EURO hater this time of year

man that eye took a dead SW hook by looking at the Weather Channel coverage radar

I just got put under a Tropical Storm Warning

Wtf 9pm was 34.0N, 76.6W

Pressure: 951.7mb

18z GFS ticked back south

Yep

6:00 PM EDT Thu Sep 13Location: 33.9°N 76.3°WMoving: WNW at 5 mphMin pressure: 955 mbMax sustained: 105 mph

Looks like that would be a direct hit on Emerald Isle

The center blob looks like it is moving almost due west right now, that plus slowing in forward speed might kick it further down south-southwest west. This is going to be a long day and night for everybody, so even nowcasting is wishcasting.

GFS, to me, ran the system in too high imo... I think it dives down further into SC than that last run showed because it is really slowing down now

IR and Dvorak continue to improve by the minute

I don't know man... Last 90 minutes or so the IR and Dvorak looks better

Eye seems to be drifting west the last 30 minutes or so

From my NWS office: Friday Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Friday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Saturday Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Saturday Night Hurricane conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Yeah she is really coming in high and hot by a full degree longitude

Also more time over water (ie the Gulf Stream)