Orangeburgwx

This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory.

A friend of mine on vacation in Germany thought it would be a good idea to gloat that he saw snow today...

Freaking LOS ANGELES got snow?!?! Screw you Nino!

To anyone who has NFL Network... The new AAF really should be given a good look. It is football as it should be played

Considering we all love to chase unicorns (the models), if you could actually have one, what you name it? (boardwide question so anyone can answer)

Eh... Took the chance like we always do when a 50/50/low rolls around (now watch we get triple thumped Monday, Wed/Thurs, and next weekend and somebody (my money is on Mack) complaining about the thread getting taken down early...

I think you are the only one here with that viewpoint... No offense

I got my therapy, I write fanfics as a hobby XD

digs myself a camp in the base of the cliff

Pats win

Overtime in Arrowhead!

As a Browns fan, now you know how I feel every freaking week... #screwtherefs

I lost $50 because of that damn no-call

That comes from several factors: 1)Not handling the h5 energy well 2) the OPs are just that, operationals, so the ensembles will have more spread 3) the GEFS is currently hampered by the fact the GFS has sort-of incomplete data due to the shutdown 4) For the ensembles not matching other model ensembles, see point number one

BWAHAHAHAHA

I'm gonna vent... Some 13 year old in the Discord server I'm in has only been studying the weather since 2016, yet he is trying to tell me "Florida never has pure snow" despite me posting multiple storm totals from various years, and all models that show FL snow are wrong. I have been studying weather for 18 years, I know what the hell I'm talking about.

I got my flake quota for the year... I'm past the point of giving a dam (pun intended) cause at this point it is all gravy for me

Mahomes played at Texas Tech, he will be fine

^this

My winter checklist: 1) At least one day of flakes (check) 2) recordable snowfall (check, got a trace from the Dec. 10th event) 3) sub-freezing high temp (TBD...) 4) Low of 25 or lower (cut that one close, 27) 5) get mad at my grandpa for asking me when he is going to get his major snow event (he was here for '73... But he is snow greedy) triple check just from the last week alone 3/5 with a month and a half to go is not too shabby

DAMN! Brady is putting on a clinic

I third it, always make an out of the way stop when I go up to Gatlinburg just to eat there

I got 8.5" in Feb. 2010... I'm not out of this yet

.7" is my yearly winter climo... Anything over that im happy

Gamecock fan here, but man does it feel good for the CFP Championship to be back in the Palmetto State #TwoTeamsOneState