Jump to content

Orangeburgwx

Members
  • Posts

    2,592
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Orangeburgwx

  1. 426mph... What the hell, did it teleport to freaking Jupiter?!
  2. A blend of Andrew and a much stronger Katrina? Really... What makes you think that?
  3. Yet during the age of the Dinos CO2 and temps were higher than they are now... But GW and CC aside, this is not the place for that shitstorm
  4. Thanks! Here is the data set I was looking at: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
  5. Sure you are looking at the right data? I am on the site and it shows 7/12/19 at 8.062
  6. Gap grew: 7/13/19: 7.964 7/13/12: 8.039 7/13/11: 8.097
  7. Im in a severe thunderstorm watch (not complaining, about damn time we had some rain)
  8. No banter, but want to share a pic of this beautiful ride I saw at Walmart this morning
  9. Yeah but when the EURO backs it up?...
  10. This is from 1025pm (waiting on the update) Friday, a cold front riddled with convection will work through the CWA from west to east. I have high confidence that everyone will see rain, starting in the northwestern counties during the morning, then reaching the eastern areas by afternoon. We are still 2 days away from the event, so there could be some adjustments needed to the timing. As far as the severe threat is concerned, the current slight risk from SPC looks like the most reasonable course of action this far in advance. However, it would not surprise to see the enhanced risk expanded westward by at least a couple of tiers of counties when the new Friday forecast from SPC comes out overnight. Shear looks to be very strong Friday, with the area in the favorable quadrant 100+ knot jet at 500 mb. Instability will be modest because mid lapse lapse rates will only be seasonable, but it won`t take a ton of CAPE to cause problems given the expected bulk shear. The biggest area of uncertainty lies with the convective evolution, as well as the mesoscale high/low couplet that should form with forcing this strong. The GFS is not picking up well on this, whereas the 00Z/06Z ECMWF and the 12Z hi res guidance do have a reflection of this evolution. If the ECMWF/NAM solution is correct with the mesolow moving north northeastward bisecting the CWA on Friday, areas along and east of the mesolow track will have an enhanced risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, due to increased low level helicity, increased surface convergence, and the potential for stronger rear inflow jets behind any bow echos that form. Unfortunately, our models are simply not good enough yet to forecast the exact evolution of these features 48 hours in advance, so we just have to mention the possibility in our discussions and hope we can refine things more as we get closer to the event. There will also be some heavy rain with the front as PWs increase to 1.5+ inches under strong divergence aloft. At this time, excessive amounts do not seem likely due to the quick speed of the front, but local issues may arise that could require flood advisories, or possibly a warning or two in our flashy areas. One other issue Friday will be the winds ahead of the front. Given the strong winds expected at 850 mb, we will likely have strong enough winds mixing down to warrant at least a Lake Wind Advisory, if not a full on Wind Advisory.
  11. A friend of mine on vacation in Germany thought it would be a good idea to gloat that he saw snow today...
  12. Freaking LOS ANGELES got snow?!?! Screw you Nino!
  13. To anyone who has NFL Network... The new AAF really should be given a good look. It is football as it should be played
  14. Considering we all love to chase unicorns (the models), if you could actually have one, what you name it? (boardwide question so anyone can answer)
  15. Eh... Took the chance like we always do when a 50/50/low rolls around (now watch we get triple thumped Monday, Wed/Thurs, and next weekend and somebody (my money is on Mack) complaining about the thread getting taken down early...
  16. I think you are the only one here with that viewpoint... No offense
  17. As a Browns fan, now you know how I feel every freaking week... #screwtherefs
  18. I lost $50 because of that damn no-call
×
×
  • Create New...