Orangeburgwx

@mackerel_sky ensemble 17... Nough said https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

My opinion for this winter: We all got Houston Astro'ed Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Don't you dare throw that analog at me... that was 47 years ago Mack, only way I will see 28" is if I move to Maine! Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Shoutout to@eyewall for starting *NEXT* winter's long term thread Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Good god, talk about an early jump off the cliff... Also, CFS only goes out to October, and it is above average temps from April to the end of the run (for now) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Suppression city Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Nasty squall line ripping up southern Alabama on the 25th (hr204) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Yeah it was, and go figure on the sounding I got screwed by a *100mb* thick warm nose (850mb-950mb with 5C temps), if it was not there (700mb was cold enough) it would have been pure snow. Talk about sickening, but still lots of time and wiggle room to bring it back down so not worried Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Thanks guys, reason I asked was based off that 29th storm, I would start with 6" of snow (10:1 ratio), then get decked by 1.25" of ZR (1:1 ratio) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

I know that Snowfall has a ratio to liquid (6:1, 10:1, etc.) is ZR a 1:1 ratio with liquid? Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

I posted this on the MA forum, but I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections EPO: strongly positive (of course..) PNA: Goes positive (bonus) NAO: dips negative around the 26th (surprising I know... Now it needs to stick) AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing with an almost ideal set up Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk So@mackerel_sky there is a glimmer of hope

I went and looked at the latest GFS 14 day interconnections EPO: strongly positive (of course..) PNA: Goes positive (bonus) NAO: dips negative around the 26th AO: dips slightly negative around the 29th Get the EPO to tank and we will be in good standing Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

It is literally a freaking fire hose zonal flow at d10 with all cold air blocked from even entering Canada... On to the EPS and hope the cold returns in the 11-15 day timeframe Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Uhh... Ya'll beat the Tarheels in Chapel Hill this year though... Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Slide the low 75 miles to the south and everybody gets a piece Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Holy moly the bowling ball at the end of e15... https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020011518/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

32by the mountains, 33-36 across the CAD regions on the 850mb temp, so maybe a token flake or two mixed in Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Also, go look at the 2m temp maps for the Mid-Atlantic on the ECMWF Hi-Res on Pivotal (which also covers both Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama), it is temps in the upper 30s for Western NC, and temps 50s towards the coast at hr240 (same timestamp as that 850mb temp anomaly pic) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2020011512&fh=240&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Even for me (I live further south than you) my mean average from the 0z EPS at days 11-15 was a high of 48 and a low of 38... I'll take that over 68/50 any day of the week Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

There was also a volcano that erupted in the Philippines (which can screw with the MJO due to how far an ash cloud can spread: look at Pinatubo in 93), besides we live in the southeast, so disappointment is the norm. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

You can't even take the EURO OP at face value anymore, there is a reason there is a "mean" on the ensembles (which the OP is part of). All you seem to be trying to sniff out is a "snowy pattern", but ALL of us here on the board want it. However, after the absolute blowtorch the last three weeks have been, the more seasonal temps are fully welcomed by us. I'm not panicking about nothing, I'm just waiting on my cold air. Besides, golden rule is "stronger high pressure push, more suppression", we can always have one or the other but it is extremely rare to get both simultaneously in our region of the US to create a 73 or 89 repeat. Take the cold air first, then we look to Fab Feb for the pattern to crank into gear. Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Personally, I'm just glad we at least get our "normal" temps back, flakes are just a bonus Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Out to hr60, the initial low over the plains is a little further west than at the same stamp (hr66 on the 6z run) Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

Use this to get back on topic, that recurve sucks! Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

https://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GEFS/2020011412/SE/GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk