BlueRidgeFolklore

10 hours ago, wncsnow said:

We are over 5 inches already for this month despite the dry spells. I don't think we get to 10 again but it may be close... 

It will be close. A gullywasher is a'comin.

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the euro does bring down some colder air but nothing sustained with the way the NAO and AO are. We will get fronts coming through much I do think we hedge on above normal. 

Agreed but we can never have too much cold air building to our north. Looks like we'll rely on wedge fronts for reprieve during an overall warm pattern in November. I'll take that.

The 12z runs are saying not so fast on a warm November, at least the start of it.

2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Looking at the pattern ahead and the teleconnections I think November is toast for the most part. 

Not necessarily a bad thing if you want cold around Christmas, as I've been alluding to. Eventually the teleconnections will lead to a cold pattern for us at some point, as we've seen this fall. When you look back at last year and how we got cold toward the middle to end of October, we ultimately went into November colder than we left it, which carried into a scorcher of a December. It's been a great fall, I think I can sacrifice a November for a good pattern flip coming in the dead of winter.

42 minutes ago, Moonhowl said:

I know it isn't popular in these parts but especially after staying winter until mid-May I don't mind this bit of Indian summer.  This Fall has been great compared to the scorch fest last year!

This is a 180 from last fall where it was warm early, got cool toward the end of October through Mid-November and then flipped back to warm for December where we were in the mid-60s on Christmas. I can handle a warm (relative) November if in exchange we get a true fall and Christmas (one of which has already verified).

Let's hope this warmth is a good thing.

18 minutes ago, Buckethead said:

Yeah, it's totally normal up here in Wolf, but its in the long range and we're supposed to mock fantasy land snowstorms, right?  My tune will change if its still showing up in a week. 

I took this here on 10/29/17.


Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I’ll leave the mocking to flatlanders, we welcome any blue that wants to show up on a map, no matter how far out. 

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

There's some fantasy land eye candy on the 6z GFS around day 12. Maybe 2020 is just crazy enough? Nahhhh...

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Seems about correct to see the first flakes begin to fly. My wife's birthday is at the end of October and we always find ourselves chasing a few token flakes around that time. These were taken in 2017, which I find similar to 2020. Both were Nina years, both were wet from Summer to Early Fall, both were good color years and both seem to be trending towards a cold ending in October. I am not sure how that fares for winter, I honestly can't remember how the 2017 winter unfolded.

These were taken on October 29th. We started in Bethel, NC and ended up finding snow near Max Patch.

2 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Heading to Cataloochee Sunday to see the leaves/Elk...  what exit do I need to take to get there?   Also, how are the leaves in that area

Exit 20 on I-40, turn onto Cove Creek Rd and follow the signs.

This is a little lower elevation than Banner Elk or Wolf Laurel but Maples are turning like crazy here, very vibrant. Oaks and Poplars beginning the transition. Can definitely see the oranges, yellows and browns beginning to pop through the sea of green. Plenty of leaves in the road too. This was earlier coming down the mountain in Transylvania County.

1 hour ago, weatherlover said:

Was thinking of riding up to cataloochee (however you spell it) Sunday to see the Elk...have any of you Mtn folks been near that area in the last few days?   Was wondering how the leaves were in that area...  Thanks for any input!

I was up there Sunday. Color is starting to pop through. Not sure how the weather is going to be there this weekend however. Keep an eye out!

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

How are the leaves looking? It should be moving pretty quick now with this weather.

Maples and poplars are turning by the day.

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

How is the foliage looking in the mountains? Any sign it is going early this year?

Looking good. Definitely looks, especially in the valleys. This week should really send it into hyperdrive.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The big trough on the Euro is too far west and we get smoked with rain next week from multiple lows riding the front.

It is west, but ENC and the Piedmont appear to the take the brunt of the rain right now. It'll be interesting to see if the westward trend continues however.

1 hour ago, landof2rivers said:

Not weather related but a topic for the mountain peeps.

We have a bear that’s been showing up at our house outside Boone. We’ve been there 10 years and have never seen a bear until this July 4th and 6th. This morning a bear showed up and entered an unlocked car and helped itself to the person’s lunch.

We never leave food or trash outside nor do we have bird feeders. 
I don’t mind the bear being in the area but I’m not thrilled that it might associate our house with food now. 

Any thoughts on how to coexist? I’m afraid to send the dog out unless someone goes out with the dog. 
 

The only way to coexist is to accept what bears do. They don't have the ability to reason, they don't know that your car, your house, your bird feeders, your trash are off limits. To them, they're just trying to survive and it's free game!

Bear populations have exploded in the mountains because hardly anyone is hunting them anymore and until bear hunters are welcome again, it will continue to explode and human/bear interactions will continue to increase. That's just the harsh truth.

Not WNC, but interesting nonetheless:

If this verifies and we can ride this pattern into mid-October, there's a good chance we could see our first flakes flying in the higher elevations in less than a month. I've seen it a few of times in my lifetime here. 

Gut feeling based on years past but I believe we're finally going to get a real fall this year.

We're officially heading toward a La Nina winter. That's not a bad thing for the mountains (obviously El Nino didn't do anything for us last year) depending on it's strength. We've had some decent La Nina winters in the last decade. 

Looks like today and tomorrow could be the last days in the 80's for the majority of the mountains.

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

The Euro shows no rain at all next 10 days+ 

I ain't mad.

12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the models are jumping around a bit and currently there are a few differences between the GFS and the EURO.  Go figure. 

I honestly think it'll land somewhere between. Seasonal and dry. I'll take that.

On 8/29/2020 at 1:31 PM, Met1985 said:

Looking out in la la land it looks like we might actually see some fall temps in September.  Im debating firing up the fall/winter thread up next week.

Let’s. Roll.

45 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

I might be exaggerating but it seems like we haven’t had a dry stretch last more than 2 days all summer.

don't even think it can be called a dry stretch if it only last 2 days

I think you're right. It has been a sloppy freaking mess all summer. Ridiculous.

Hard to believe it was just 4yrs ago that we were building toward conditions that would lead to the costliest wildfires in our areas history. 

Feast or famine around here.