BlueRidgeFolklore

Chris Justus saying he’s not changing his forecast. 

8 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Lol at the short range models.  Don't think I have ever seen a low take that track with such a strong high in place.  This should correct.

What do you think is causing the short range models to struggle with this?

Just now, franklin NCwx said:

From GSP...

 

The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow
forecast.  The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians.
Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing
through most of the event

There you go! Boom!

9 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Pretty big shift downwards.

Not for the mountains. Actually bumped up from this morning.

Jason looked at this thread (me specifically) and said “keep talkin’ that sh*t”

touché 

11 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Here's GSP's latest expected snowfall map.  Numbers going down for NW piedmont but remaining quite strong in mountain areas:

Those numbers went up for the southern escarpment. 

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just trends to watch, not favorable trends if you want what the NWS snow map depicts.

It’s not a trend. NWS had a disco earlier where they were confident the LP was heading towards 95, not taking a dip in Lake Chatuge. NAM is struggling to resolve this for some reason. 

Just now, BretWx said:

Precip moving in on the NAM around 1AM Sunday, AVL is at 28/25 by 4AM at 25/23

Like clockwork, CAD appears stronger as well.

4 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Was reading back through the thread leading up to the 12/2018 storm... Good times! 

 

Man, where did @HurricaneTracker go? Haven’t seen him in a while!

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I have to say, it is a bit disappointing the rest of the board has given up just because they aren't getting huge totals. Guess you get less analysis and model pbp when the big population centers aren't getting hit as hard. 

Been like that forever, hence why we start a Mountain Thread every year.

2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

WLOS call:

Safe bet. 6” increments gives a ton of room for variation. 

5 hours ago, GoAPPS said:

Why is it that warm air can get in here and lower our snow totals but cold air never makes it over the mountains in time? Is it simply that the warm air has an easier time rising over the mountains and funneling in?

Depends on the setup but that feature nearly always shows up in the models with CAD setups and it’s not simply a snow hole in AVL but a stretch of lower totals extending the entire river valley from Madison into Buncombe. Makes sense, all the cold air is dammed up along the eastern escarpment, so any access to the warmer air west of the Apps would cut totals. 
 

Obviously the higher elevations in this region still do well.

24 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

Met beat me to the punch, I’ll take my 16-20” and head to the cashier.

To hell with the cashier, I’m hitting the express self checkout.

CJ upped his totals after GSP posted some bullish numbers.

42 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Thoughts on the Frutiland area? Thanks guys.

Go up to Bearwallow for Blizzard conditions  

3 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

But the Black Mountains (including Mt. Mitchell), just to the NE of the town of Black Mountain, get clobbered in this scenario (more than two feet).  So, being just to their SW could be beneficial too.

That “V” of lower totals on the GFS coming into Asheville from Madison County, is due to the French Broad River Valley funneling in warmer air from TN. That’s always a battleground area with CAD. In these setups, AVL isn’t Black Mountain. Black Mountain will do well.

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's thermals are crap too though, I really hope this isn't a trend with the Hi res models..

CAD is almost always underdone at this range. As Ward and others have said, this will likely get corrected as we get closer.

8 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 6z euro snow map is absolutely insane.  Ive not seen totals spit out like that in probably 5 to 6 years here.

Jason Boyer after seeing the 6z Euro. (I kid, I kid)

1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

In fairness to Boyer, he doesn't say plain rain, just that it would be mixed decreasing snow totals and said that it could be significant. But, he did say it was getting warmer on the models which I have not seen nor decreased snow totals 

Jason always takes an indifferent stance with these storms. Give his followers just enough to understand that there is a major winter storm coming, but backs off just short of going all in to save himself the humiliation and ire if it all goes wrong. If you forecast 6” and get 12”, what wonderful surprise. If you forecast 12” and get 5”, it’s pitchforks and bayonets.

8 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

I was just talking about him. If he wants to stay on the conservative side he needs to be that way from the get go. I just talked to family that watched him and said snow was a miss it’s gonna be mostly rain now. Which is far from the truth we’ve all seen it today on models totals have not went down! He could be putting some people in danger if he doesn’t jump on board by tomorrow evening!

Just saw his post. Mind boggling to say the least. 

1 minute ago, WxKnurd said:

Franklin to Toxaway corridor is gonna jackpot with the favorded area in the border counties having to play catch-up with backside NWFS to get close to their totals IMO

64 Special incoming. From Hendo to Brevard up to Toxaway, Cashiers, Highlands and Franklin. I can see 15+ in some of the higher elevations around there. 

She’s a beaut Clark.

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I think we actually see a correction to a better solution here in the mountains. 

Me too. CAD should likely trend stronger as we get closer.

 There is no doubt that we’re about to get walloped. 

Great Googly Moogly!

6 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Incredible NAM run... Hard not to get excited at this point. Hi-Res shows 7" imby.

I’ve noticed on the latest HRRR and NAM runs for that area around KAVL, it wants to bleed cold air down the river valley into Henderson County. You might get a surprise!