BlueRidgeFolklore

1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I understand what you're saying, but using last September,  one of the warmest on record for many, is not a great benchmark. Plus averaging this September compared to last year doesn't tell the whole story. The highs this month have been way higher then the highs for September last year. The average highs in AVL this September have been nearly 5 degrees higher than last, resulting in 8 days it has reached 90 or higher through the first 17 days, compared to a monthly high of just 87 last year. The only reason the averages are closer to last year is bc the lows have been closer to normal, but most people are reacting to the highs. And this is just AVL.  Yes, it will eventually cool off, but most of us hate bringing summer into October. Even if we go below the mean for last year, that will be little comfort for most. Regardless,  looking forward to these next couple of days!

We're running nearly neck and neck with 1980 in terms of averages through September 17th, here at AVL. I get what you're saying but I've been around long enough to know this isn't out of the ordinary. I'm not saying that one is the rule or the exception, I am simply saying that I've been through it before. 

15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Until Jerry or one of his Caribbean cousins shows up and wrecks the party with 100% humidity and 85° temps well into Oct.  We are not going to get off the hook easy this year.  

I hear this every year and every year we blow it out of proportion (at least in my eyes). The SER was killer this time last year and yet for KAVL we're only averaging 1 degree above our mean for all of September last year. By the end of this week, I'll guarantee that it will be at or below our mean for September 2018. I get that each backyard is different but I also know every September in the South continues the dog days of summer to the point that we become weather weary. I agree with FallsLake above, eventually (sooner than later) it will give and this will all be an afterthought.

7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

What an amazing past couple of days! Saturday we did not get out of the 60s and Sunday we did not get out of the low 70s. Monday was also spectacular for August.  

Per GSP's discussion this morning, it looks to continue:

.SYNOPSIS... A cool wedge of high pressure will linger across the region today, but will break down ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the area Wednesday. Drier weather is forecast behind the front until late in the weekend.

Outlook: Scattered convection is expected Wed afternoon, as a cold front crosses the region from the northwest. Improving/drying conditions are expected for the latter part of the work week, while a another cold air damming event may set up for next weekend.

This weekend is looking very pleasant (a little wet) with temps not getting out of the 70's.

19 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Severe Thunderstorm watch for the area fellas. Be on the lookout.

Last night came a gully washer in Brevard.

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

For August this has been the perfect weather. Absolutely loving this for August weather.

Yea, it's really hard to complain right now. Very mild for a typical mountain August. I remember last year this time thinking the humidity was insufferable.

1 hour ago, Buckethead said:

Rain has passed and I'm sitting at 53/53 currently.  Feels great!

It feels really nice! Breezy and crisp like fall.

Looks like we'll get our first taste of fall early next week. Some areas in WNC might not get out of the upper 60's!

My son starts football this week and it got me thinking about how fall is right around the corner. I noticed the CPC 4 days ago put out a discussion stating their belief that we're headed toward ENSO-neutral through fall and winter. So for the sake of breaking up the silence, what is everyone projecting for fall heading into winter here in the mountains?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

1 hour ago, scwxfan said:

He won't be doing anything on the Davidson. 

He'll be doing in the French Broad because that's where the Davidson will take him. 

14 hours ago, jpbart said:

Of course I am going to Brevard this Sunday to fish on the Davidson River, I hope it's not a wash out.  I will fish in the rain so long as its not a thunderstorm.

No you won't. LOL! I can guarantee you it will be a washout.

Finally looks some needed rain headed our way. *Needed being the key word. You can shut off the spigot as soon as it's done.

1 hour ago, Hvward said:

12z EPS average snowfall totals increase for WNC.  KAVL Up from around 1" to just under 4".  Boone avg also up to just under 4" and Franklin 12z EPS shows around 3" on average.  15 members(30%) at KAVL show 6"+.

So if this happens for KAVL, then our 2 largest snows on the year will have fallen in Spring (after the vernal equinox) and Fall (before winter solstice).

That shows just how fickle our weather is. 

3 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I'm ready for some 50's.  I can break out the flip flops then. 

2nd week of April is looking good for warm weather.

2 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

We're due for a hundred year flood if we continue the rain through the summer and get a tropical storm to roll throu.....yikes is all I'm guns say. 

Hunnerd year flud?

We're heading straight for the Old Testament, gather the goats and load the boat if this keeps up.

I'm looking forward to summer.

The rain gets warmer.

16 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Hope you all are doing well. I have moved again, this time to southern Maryland, maybe the snow gods will be easier on me up here! The storm in December was nice but it has been a miserable wet, cool, rainy winter since. 

Where in SoMd did you move?

1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Strong El Nino subsurface wave.. looks like an El Nino Spring. 

More rain. Yay.

4 hours ago, Sw NC weather said:

Getting some much needed heavy rain

Sight for sore eyes. I was honestly beginning to think something was wrong. We hadn't had rain in 2 days. 

We have something to track!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQo1HIcSVtg

5 hours ago, Buckethead said:

I prefer that to living in a tinderbox like WNC was in 2016.  

I think all this excess moisture will be just as miserable. If we head into Spring this wet, it's going to be miserable. We'll have 10 fold the mosquitoes that we're used to and mold spores galore. Basements and crawlspaces are flooding like crazy, foundations are cracking, roofs a leaking at alarming rate. Not to mention all the washout and mudslides we're having and you can forget farming/gardens if this keeps up.

At least during a dry spell, less the once in a century wildfires, you can still enjoy it outside in the sun. If we don't dry up soon before April, it's going to be miserable.

1 hour ago, Phelps said:

I know winter isn't over in the high country yet and we'll see what happens the rest of February but right now it isn't looking too promising.  If the next 2 weeks are anything like the last couple then it will be the 2nd February in a row with very little snow, even in the highest elevations.  Frustrating. 

KAVL won't see below freezing temps for the rest of February! Crazy!

Who would have thunk this.......... in February.

55 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

After spending the last couple of days in Asheville and Raleigh in shorts and short sleeve shirts, I'm done with winter. I hope it warms up and stays warm. 

Same! We've had a 12 incher and some other smaller snows. I'll call that a success and ride off into 70 degrees and long days!