The 4 Seasons

Nice graphic

That was only last year, the storm I've been referencing a few times. Most fx were 4-8. The duration was short. 9a-4p here.

i remember it last season too for some reason.

I was getting deja vu with some of these maps so i went back and looked through Feb 7th 2021. Had to share these striking similarities at the surface from models from the Feb 7th 2021 nor'easter. 21 left/22 right

agree

Anyone else noticed that almost all NCEP data has halted at 12Z for NAM/GFS/HRRR. All the sites that have graphics for these models seem to be working fine but everything that has point data, bufkit data, banding hasnt updated since 12Z in most cases. BUFKIT data is all stopped around 12Z: PSU Bufkit Data Distribution Coolwx has nothing for the HRRR/NAM/GFS since 12Z, GFS has 00Z but no 18Z NCEP Model Time-Series (BUFR) Forecast Hourly Weather Data (coolwx.com) this site i use for banding hasnt updated NAM since 12Z moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Also i noticed when i click on TT for a sounding it says "model run not available" even though the graphics are available.

Yeah Gfs nice bump up /west. Not to mention this interesting shape over CT..

I can't speak for recent models i.e. 0z/6z but when I looked at 12z gfs/Nam I noticed the dgz was pretty narrow and realitively low with the best lift above it. At least for the CT sites I looked at. I saw a post from oceanstwx about it earlier. What are your thoughts? I imagine the better runs like the 3k Nam and hrrr look better.

Latest okx map, 4-6 all of southern CT reasonable

I like where we are right now I'll have to look closer when I can get on a pc but I thought the 6z hrrr and 3knam look great for ct. Nam was paltry qpf wise but not really worried. 4-8 for most of CT seems pretty reasonable. Could forsee a stripe of 8-10 in e CT.

Southern CT is in a advisory for 4-6 same amount the watches were for. Idc, just think it's kinda funny. Stop stealing my pink polygons!

Warnings up and new watches for MA, advisories up for CT.

Using my phone to look at models is a real pita. But here's some porn.

Hrrr even a bit better than 00Z. Warning snows for CT. It's notable how consistent its been in the long range i.e. 18-48hrs for this storm and the Monday Mid Atlantic storm. It's usually a hot mess in the extended hrrrx range.

This storm and model runs are giving me ptsd flashbacks of 2/7/21

Warnings and weenies flying everywhere in the sky

Gfs coming in extra hot.

For science.

Watches? Didn't see that one coming. Guess with the uncertainity and possibility of ramping up its covering the potential but 4-6 is really pushing it for a watch here. Thats 5" avg.

While the EPS mean spread is tightening that is still quite a large spread for a 48 hour time lead compared a lot of typical coastals i've seen/tracked over the last 10 years. I think we'll know by the 06Z Friday runs...

Thank you my blood pressure is rising reading some of these comments

really? 4-6 seems reasonable to me. a lot can still change but its not anything wild.

you'll get 0.1 and like it

Not really surprised by 18Z GFS or any other model. More interested in the 00Z/12Z 05 suite when new upper air data has been sampled thats coming on shore. Tomorrows 12Z will be important. Off hour op runs right now mean very little to me.

Not sure if this was posted but OKX first maps (for the whole event). Seems bullish for them but within reason.