The 4 Seasons

Nice, thanks. Just wanted to make sure that was the final, i saw you posted a pic of a ruler with 3" earlier but didn't know if it was the final report or not. Busy christmas eve but i should have a map tomorrow or the day after for CT. Merry Christmas everyone

Thanks for the reports @Damage In Tolland3" the final there? Highest report I could find is 3" in Pomfret.

Radar update 3

Radar update 2.

Kevins already at 2...hell probably end up 3-4". While my 0.8 melts by noon. Thats a sick positive bust though on christmas eve, enough to use a damn snow blower.

if u get a measurement when the accumulation is done that would be awesome, ill probably have like zero reports from Litchfield county for this one. sucks that you're leaving CT, i know what thats like and no snow anymore is ruff. Latest radar. Don't like this band consolidating and moving just north of my area.

lol i read that fast, and my brain read: "Looks like weinstein here"

Harvey?

Radar update.

Anyone whos in CT please @ me or send me a report when all is said and done. It's a very minor event but an inch or so on xmas eve is kinda a big deal enough to make a map so ill being doing one. Reports are always low when its something small like this so anything helps, tia.

Light snow. 25F. 0.8"

Back to steady light snow, probably about a half an inch. 25F

An inch? Wow. I just went outside don't have my ruler but I would say 0.2-0.3 estimate. Just flurries now before the next slug moves through soon.

Steady snow for about 45 min, roads covered. Looks nice out.

Here's an example of the juiced up off hour runs on the EC for the last 4 cycles. The on-hour 12Z/00Z cycles look nearly identical and the 18Z/6Z counterparts look similar as well. Don't ask me why this is happening, it's also just a snapshot of one days worth of runs, so at the same time doesn't "prove" the 6Z/18Z are more or less juiced than the on-hour runs. It's just something I've noticed as well as many users on here. Anecdotal more than anything, but it is interesting to see it visualized. A few years ago we didn't even have the 6Z/18Z ECMWF to look at and maybe that would have been for the better?

I'd pay good money to see that interaction.

Maybe you can drive up 95 and chase the C-1 in CT, might be fun

Make sure you don't forget to put chains on the cruiser and get the blower ready. Maybe you'll see some flurries tonight down in the city.

34 and light rain. epic.

BDL had a christmas day storm in 95? i was too young to remember that one

Yeah i noticed that too, those are just raw percentages from records. The period of record is different between the stations and missing data from years, there's a lot of missing data from ORH including 2002. The reality is probably a 10-15% difference.

Good summary of the situation by BOX. This is a very fickle situation with multiple shortwaves to resolve over the next 96 or so hours. The first SW isn't even onshore of the West Coast yet. What complicates things even more for southern areas is the marginal airmass. Right now i wouldn't forecast anything beyond R/S showers for X-Mas Eve and Day. The 00Z Icon solution might as well be a 384 hour fantasy storm on a GFS OP run, but it's always nice to shovel digital snow. The first in a series of disturbances then moves through overnight into Christmas Eve, this one quite weak and unimpactful. A low pressure moving from the Great Lakes will likely bring warm frontal precipitation in the form of light snow showers or flurries lingering into Friday morning. Given the lack of moisture, not expecting much more than novelty flakes, perhaps a dusting by Friday morning. This isn`t set in stone though and will come into more focus over the next 24 hours as we get into the hi-res guidance (we`re just within the range of the NAM which presently wants to keep the system too far north to give us much of anything). Stay tuned to see if it might be a picturesque Christmas Eve morning. Turning our attention next to the weekend/Christmas holiday, there unsurprisingly remains even more uncertainty, as this will depend somewhat on the behavior of the system ahead of it. At this point what we can be sure of is that a shortwave will drop down from the western Great Lakes around Christmas bringing unsettled weather with it which may fall as rain, snow, or a wintry mix depending on the eventual track of the low. Too soon to stray from ensemble guidance which, as is often the case, shows the best probability of >1 inch of snow over the higher terrain of northwestern Massachusetts. Either way, this won`t be a blockbuster storm, with odds of snowfall exceeding 3 inches essentially nil. Some interesting climo for Christmas Day at BDL. In the past 30 years there have only been two days with an inch or more snowfall. Those days were in 2002 3.8" and 2017 with 3.3". There's a 58% chance of a defined "white Christmas" i.e. 1" or greater on the ground at 7AM. But only a 5% of a chance of 1" or more snow on that day. The record being 1974 with 4.0". Percentages of days with 1" or more snow depth at 7AM in Southern New England. KBDL 58% KORH 52% KDXR 46% (sparse data not official from airport) KPVD 42% KHVN 41% (sparse data not official from airport) KGON 26% (sparse data not official from airport) KBOS 24% KBDR 20% KISP 19% KEWR 18% KNYC 15%

#FREELEO

Today is the 12 year anniversay of the December 19-20th 2009 nor'easter that heavily affect eastern and southeastern southern New England. Low pressure tracked just outside the 40/70 benchmark. There was a very sharp gradient and cut-off between heavy accumulations and near nothing. In Connecticut NW CT received next to nothing while eastern and SE eastern CT accumulations approached 2 feet. Here, on the line we picked up 10-12" (estimate). Blizzard warnings went up for all of long island and southeast mass. Mostly warnings and advisories for southern New England.

Theres a few members of the EPS/GEFS/GEPS that have this system diving farther south with advisory to warning level snowfall across most or all of southern New England. Obviously were still very far away and those members are in the vast minority at this range. Something to keep an eye on for now.