The 4 Seasons

beautiful day today, i dont mind these..i went for a walk, felt like 80 in the sun

71

RIP RPM

also looks quite a bit faster which we tend to expect with these type of systems.

First call. Given the fact that we are still 60+ hrs out we went with a general 4-8" for CT with highest end of the range likely for N CT and lower amounts near the coast. The globals GFS/EC/GEM being south at 12Z and colder were a good sign but we're not ready to the pull the trigger on bigger amounts 6-10/8-12 for CT just yet. We're also allowing for some tics north/warmer in future runs. Right now 4-8" for most of CT with sleet/zr slot ending as some light snow possibly. Not to mention lift in the DGZ looks god awful but several hours of 8-10:1 snowfall will achieve these ranges atm.

It's a goddamn warzone in here

The funny thing is 10:1 is almost exactly the same for CT, RI and most of MA. So especially for this storm there's even less of reason to post it. It's zonked out in CNE and NNE obv due to the much cooler max T in the profile

What an epic bust down here in CT from about 91 and west. I remember it vividly. We were under a blizzard warning with calm winds and clear skies. OKX wouldn't pull the plug until about 9PM. Got about 2" from WAA snows on the front end and that was it. E CT did well and verified the warnings.

Latest update to the season to date snowfall for CT.

Final totals in CT. Thanks for all the reports. Ill be working on a season to date snowfall map so dont forget to update New England Snow website. I think we were pretty bullish on this event from the start but clearly not enough. Grade is based solely on the final call. We issued a short-term map update after the event started. Least amount of the snow fell in far N and NW CT and i think most of the state was within the 1-3" range. We busted way low on the eastern 1/3rd of the state with 4-8" there. Final Grade: C- Final Call: Short-term update:

last update after the blizzard

Any final totals in CT please send them my way. Reports are tough for this one because it was so stretched out over time with multiple parts. Anything would be appreciated, thanks.

Total? @Ginx snewxcan you let me know your final, looks like the jackpot as expected.

2.4"

1.7" 630AM

Light to moderate snow past few hours. Big flakes with excellent snow growth. Should be close to 2" atm.

Final call. Might end up being on the lower side in parts of eastern and southern CT. Bumped up quite a bit from our first call yesterday morning. First call.

This winter blows chunks, that is all.

18Z GFS looks like dog sh*t.

The germans are coming?

Since 6Z only goes out to 90 hours. If you go out even further in the run the differences are even more dramatic Let's take a look at H5 and compare it to 00Z at 105 hours and 111 hours, 4pm Sunday and 10pm Sunday respectively. The 12Z run is significantly different than the last big run at 00Z and much more what you want to see for rapid east coast cyclogenesis running up the coast. We are still quite a way out for this potential event but the afternoon runs overall are trending in the right direction. The EPS is not a great look overall at this range we are going to want to see an improvement at 00Z. Very few members are hits. Heres the mean SLP/QPF and member SLP.

that report does seem a little sussy though

Can't believe its been 5 years already. But this beautiful bomb hit Feb 9th 2017. Notable aspects of this storm is that was particularly easy to forecast with extremely good consensus amongst all models and run-run consistency. Widespread thundersnow broke out in CT during the early afternoon hours with rates reaching 4" per hour.

right now its looking like a sun afternoon into overnight. That would mainly be a night storm. But at this range ~100-120hrs you can expect that to shift up to 6-12 hours in either direction.

? wasn't it literally one bad season before that, 11-12. 10-11 was good to great for most of all SNE. 9-10 couldn't have been better than 10-11 even for your area?