The 4 Seasons

61 pages of epicness

Probably the first and only call ill make on this one. If this look better (or worse) at 12Z i may update it. Pretty much a non-event the way i see it. Can't rule out a few isolated 2 or 3" amounts in interior southern connecticut. Right now, areas near the NY boarder look the most favorable on modeling.

OKX and BOX hold on the advisories but definitely cut back in the wording and amounts. From 2-4 locally higher in the BOX area to 2-3 and "up to 3" in the OKX zones except fairfield and new haven where they continue 2-4". Definitely boarderline to keep the advisories going. From the OKX AFD: Much of the frontogenetic and thermal forcing with the coastal low will remain offshore, while the precipitation shield expands to the NW of the low as the upper low approaches from the west. In some ways, this is taking on the appearance of a trowal, but in a much broader scope. Guidance continues to trend downward with liquid equivalent amounts generally less than a half an inch. Furthermore, the WPC Superensemble snowfall amounts have also dropped with the best chance for advisory level snows remaining across western Passaic county in NJ and Orange county in NY. Elsewhere across the advisory area, snowfall will generally be in the 1 to 3 inch range. While dropping the advisory was contemplated across eastern areas, ensemble mean guidance was just below advisory level snows in these areas. Should this trend continue with the 12Z cycle, this will have to be revisited.

Certainly wouldnt write it off completely yet. The RGEM is being a bit stubborn, for the CT/RI/SE MA area it did cut back a bit from 00Z but is still the most bullish with the system.

NAM isn't a piece of guidance, it's a piece of shit. (but i do agree with the sentiment)

Seymour - 1, Tolland - 0

A marginally improved 3K/12K NAM. Time to flush this turd down the toilet and move on. C-2 for most of CT seems reasonable at this point.

a couple runs ago you were in that 16-20 range. RPM is good for a chuckle. 00Z was a complete dud, then 3Z drops 20+ LOL

From BOX and OKX

now that the GFS16 has been running on time and 4X/day on pivotal, ive been paying more attention that

Feb 5th 2001 FYI

read my mind. thats my number 1 all timer, such a great positive bust.

get Nammed

I'm still shoveling potential from last season

20th anniversary of this beaut.

do you have a link so i can get these images and more or did you just save these at the time? im currently archiving all the snow storms from 2000-present in SNE.

u got 20" on both dec 03 and feb 03? Dec 03 was one of the worst busts of all time here, prob close to Jan 15. That slot was atrocious.

i feel you on that one my man, thats for sure.Not as bad as Dec 2003, Jan 2015 or Mar 2018 but CLOSE!

Happy 10 year anniversary

Damn. Fatality in VT. RIP.

GOT IT. CTown supermarket is not only open today till 10pm but it has eggnog. niceeeee never. is it hard?

im on a hunt to find egg nog today, its like trying to find santa claus and rudolph.

True but i try to look at it glass half full...at least we had a big dec snowstorm during the holiday season and deep snowpack/cold in the week leading up to christmas. Hey at least its interesting id rather have this, rain and damaging winds than a 2014 or 2015 december with 50s and 60s and fog/clouds no interesting wx to speak of. Merry Christmas Everyone.

I'm only going to put the ones i was around for and personally experienced. 1) Feb 5th 2001 2) Mar 4-6th 2001 3) Jan 23rd 2016 4) Feb 9th 2017 5) Jan 4th 2018