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The 4 Seasons

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Everything posted by The 4 Seasons

  1. The 4 Seasons
    POU with 11.5" must have got most of that in 2 hours lol
  2. The 4 Seasons
    That was a great storm to end out a god awful year. i was getting some of the heaviest snow i've ever seen at around 4"/hr here.
  3. The 4 Seasons
    CC and hourly rates
  4. The 4 Seasons
    Gigantic flakes atm, dendrites sticking together. heavy snow.
  5. The 4 Seasons
    That is 00Z...
  6. The 4 Seasons
    pretty much, its just getting annoying now. Overnight runs were overall very good. I never thought id say toss the euro run inside of 24 hours, but here we are. Maybe it was better when we only had 12 hour cycles ha
  7. The 4 Seasons
    What the hell happened to that model, that's like a NAM level drunk move
  8. The 4 Seasons
    question: i used to use this site for vertically averaged f-gen but it seems it hasnt been updated since march 2023, you have an alternative? i know sites like pivotal and some others have 700mb or other layers but i found this one useful because it did like 600-800 vertically averaged frontogensis, tagging @Ginx snewx as well
  9. The 4 Seasons
    It doesn't
  10. The 4 Seasons
    It's atrocious
  11. The 4 Seasons
    Not really concerned with details given the time lead and everything else but thats a nice giant middle finger to CT Almost worse than 18Z...well come around tomorrow to more realistic soln, thermals are a concern though closer to the coast esp given the SST
  12. The 4 Seasons
    UKMET is solid warning snows for nearly all of CT, thermals be damned on that model. low 990s BM track 925s and 850s are plenty cold.
  13. The 4 Seasons
    dont forget the JMA, KMA, Icon, ARPGEGELGO, IBM and the RPM...RIP RPM
  14. The 4 Seasons
    dont remind me of that pos. that was literally a Jan 15 lite in the snowfall distribution across CT. Ended up with 7" all light snow, occasionally moderate. got stuck in between some bands where seymour/ bethany got 9.5-10" to my west and 12-15" just 5 or 10 miles to my east. trash
  15. The 4 Seasons
    looks like BOX pulled those graphics they made earlier, i think OceanStWx was right...probably a mistake..they now show <1 for the snow showers tomorrow
  16. The 4 Seasons
    thats good to know, based on the limited stuff ive seen i assumed we were the highest/bullish. i can easily see these numbers going up or adding an additional range in NE CT to MA hills. We'll see where were at tomorrow, nearly 72hrs to go from start time.
  17. The 4 Seasons
    First call. 3 days out, confidence is average. Some new maps and new details added for this season. Probably gonna change for final on Friday but this what we're thinking ATM. Confidence is much lower around NYC/LI/NJ but thats not a concern for this forum, probably gonna have to tighten up that gradient-ha
  18. The 4 Seasons
    yea i figured as much, looks awful for the public or for anyone who doesnt know that
  19. The 4 Seasons
    ive already seen articles on MSNBC home page with this graphic in it. Probably auto generated AI written stuff, not sure
  20. The 4 Seasons
    WeatherWIZ + Costco = Cheesewiz
  21. The 4 Seasons
    Absolutely. Atm im more worried ab. what the gefs is showing than mixing for us. We'll see where were at tomorrow at this time- ha. But we still got nearly 84hrs to figure things out and tons more runs to go. Just like seeing the consistency and potential for a higher ceiling even if that means playing with fire (i.e. mixing)
  22. The 4 Seasons
    Very solid 3" and 6" probs, bumped way up since 00Z
  23. The 4 Seasons
    Good to see that spread tighten up quite a bit and drop a lot of those sheered out whiffs from last night. The Mean and the 50 percentile match up very close now.
  24. The 4 Seasons
    UKMET is south but was also very far N and warm at 12Z so its expected.
  25. The 4 Seasons
    WXbell mean is a tick down from 12Z with about 4-6" for much of CT. Stormvista seems to be a step higher, which is usual for them
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