Jump to content

paulythegun

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    814

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by paulythegun

  1. paulythegun
    We’re definitely not there yet (to the point of hopelessness) you’re totally right. We have recent data to confirm that. Tons of snow the last couple decades. It was always going to be a slow bleed. But at the same time: it’s objectively warmer, and that warmth is concentrated in the northern hemisphere, during winter. Bad! Haha.
  2. paulythegun
    Lava limits snow ratios. Don’t count on 10 to 1. We need the magnum rock to solidify and cool if it’s going to support accumulations.
  3. paulythegun
    warmbad2.mp4
  4. paulythegun
    Dec. 17 folks
  5. paulythegun
    If a model has 15 members out of 50 with a coastal storm with a nice track 300 hours out and 35 members with random stuff (like cutters), then the MEAN temperature is going to be worse than useless. It's going to be misleading! even if the temps were colder, it wouldn't mean much of anything because that could just relate to the timing of the cutter and associated cold front passage. think about 50 separate storms and how they average out on an ensemble map. it's like if someone said, "Well, the ensemble only has a 1000mb mean low pressure reading off the coast 300 hours out, that's not a very strong coastal storm, it's saying it's going to be a weak storm." No it's not! that's the average across a spatial domain!
  6. paulythegun
    #NEverForget the victims of El Nino: sailors boiled alive in the east pacific
  7. paulythegun
    yeah looks potent on 500mb. upslope snow in the blue ridge, maybe some inverted trough snow inland in new england when the surface low actually develops (too late for us).
  8. paulythegun
    Benny Hill Music (6z gfs, hours 132-270)
  9. paulythegun
    The latest euro weeklies suggest that January will either look like the euro weeklies or that their 0.001% added value will not prove useful beyond random dart throwing and climo
  10. paulythegun
    DC's snow drought started when the trump sons came to town and continued when hunter biden showed up. Is it possible that DC's snow is just being snorted away by presidential failsons?
  11. paulythegun
    snow mostly limited in the city to grassy areas, cartops, and grassy cartops
  12. paulythegun
    BIG SIGNAL days 15 to 20 for a potential pattern change by day 30 that might lead us to snow day 40. Keeping an eye on this moving window.
  13. paulythegun
    3k nam has 6 hours of white rain for DC.
  14. paulythegun
    Suppose this belongs in banter. 3k NAM fake snow map
  15. paulythegun
    Water...like from the toilet?
  16. paulythegun
  17. paulythegun
    Severe Anafront Watch! SUNDAY NIGHT LWX: Colder air will move in behind the front, first later Sunday afternoon in the Allegheny Highlands and then Sunday night from northwest to southeast across the rest of the area. With the upper- level trough axis lagging behind the frontal passage by a few hours or so, this suggests that there will be some anafrontal characteristics to the boundary. Therefore, there may be a few hour period of rain or rain changing to snow behind the cold front before drier air eventually works its way in overnight. The best chance for accumulating snow will be along the ridge tops of the Blue Ridge and Allegheny/Potomac Highlands where cold air will move in sooner.
  18. paulythegun
    need a non-thread for this weekend's potential non-anafront https://i.imgur.com/tcRQN7z.jpg
  19. paulythegun
    Watching this potential SSW that is modeled with 1% certainty in late December. If it hits, we could definitely see a week of sustained cold somewhere in the northern hemisphere. Timing? Winter months. Location? It could be any random air parcel over the ocean above the equator
  20. paulythegun
    “Everyone on earth knows that El Niño Decembers are warm” (????!) “Everything is still lined up for January, after the 100% chance warm El Niño December that was predicted 9 months ago hits” (!?!?!?) “It will never snow heavily again without a perfect circumstance of luck and timing” [emoji736]
  21. paulythegun
    Days 15-20 looking like the best window for a pattern change that might lead to sustained cold. [autopost, now until forever]
  22. paulythegun
    still has the inverted trough off the coast action though. snow tv
  23. paulythegun
    Heh 12z GFS vs 18z. You can see on the 500mb charts that ridge is further east and there's not as much spacing between the clipper and wave ahead of it.
  24. paulythegun
    Look at these sea temps. Offshore wind platforms are causing this! They’re diverting the Gulf Stream! (Farts, belt breaks, pants fall down) In all seriousness, as long as December SSTs are this crazy, gonna be tough for the coastal plain to see snow in the early season without a shot of extreme cold. From now until forever. Which is why I’m watching the depth of cold air in Canada. I’ll cheer for you folks in the burbs, but in the city, we’ll need a legit cold shot or else the thermal gradient/mixing issues won’t work for us until this cools off.
  25. paulythegun
    i generally agree with this winter forecast, though not with alaska making landfall on mexico (you don't see that often with el nino winters)
×
×
  • Create New...