chubbs
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Everything posted by chubbs
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Per Jaxa, looks like antarctic extent is also at a record low. First time ever for both poles at same time?
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Saw this Wipneus plot of PIOMASS minimum volume at the ASIF. This year ended up close to 2010 and 2011 and not far below the linear trendline. If we follow the linear trend, 2012 will be a normal year by 2022.
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Northern oceans have continued to warm while el-nino fades cooling the tropics. See also: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.year.html
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It is surprising how close CT SIA came to 2012. The series of storms in August may also have played a role by enhancing bottom melt.
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NSIDC extent dropped 120k on 9/6 to 4083k clinching 2nd place.
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Yes, good job flagging 4mil as a reasonable prospect at the start of the year
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Would expect above average extent losses to close out the melt season due to the large areas of low concentration ice, good melting momentum, and relatively mild weather to start September particularly over the Laptev.
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Here is 70-80N on the Pacific side covering most of the rest of the Arctic Ocean. There are some year-to-year differences, particularly this year, but the overall trend is similar.
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Cool season 80-90N has warmed by roughly 4C in the past 20 years, so unless things slow down, 2C is not that far away.
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Down 360k in the past 3 days. With this late area drop, looks like 2016 is going to separate from 2011/2007 on CT SIA.
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Could also be cloud/precip/ice movement since it reversed last night with a 147k amsr2 area drop. Day-to-day trends have been variable but area is still dropping at a good clip averaged over the past week or so.
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Yes dipole would be much worse in June or July. I favor 2 or 3 on area.
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You were thinking 4-6'th at the start of the stormy period. Is that still your call?
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Big area losses in the CAB the past couple of days. With the stormy pattern forecast to persist for the next week, may get open water close to the pole.
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Per the PV pattern, 12z euro/gfs forecasting strengthening low moving from Laptev/ESS to CAB in 4/5 days, euro bottoms out at 966, gfs at 971.
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It doesn't address global methane concentrations only emissions associated with NG production and use and comparison to other fossil fuels.
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This is an update of an earlier controversial paper. Paper has a clear discussion of methane emission estimates and does a good job of supporting the factors used. The main takeaway is that there is not much advantage for NG over coal when methane leaks are accounted for.
