chubbs

Less regional variability in US than I would have expected.

Warming picked-up coming out of the hiatus. GISS v4 currently has a 30-year warming rate of 0.21/decade. The 10-year rate is 0.36/decade (barely significant due to short period) http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html

Not sure where you are getting your paleo (or other) info from. CO2 is a control knob and water magnifies the impact of CO2. Without CO2 there wouldn't be much water vapor in the atmosphere. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356

Can't get too excited about any one study or model. However, after 40+ years of rapid warming since aerosols stabilized, it should be clear that nature isn't going to bail us out.

Yes and the summer sun was 5+% stronger in the arctic in the HCO explaining the summer warmth. We are blowing past the HCO in the arctic with unfavorable orbital conditions for arctic warmth.

Interesting how misinformation on climate science and renewables goes hand-in-hand.

Funny, I have the opposite reaction to ice cores. The temperature/CO2 correlation is almost perfect in ice cores and modern observations.

Hasn't received any publicity, but the NHemi oceans are scorching, much more important to global July temp records than the brief European heat wave. Per below the warming has continued in early Aug. UHI?

No -RSS implemented a new method in V4. The main difference between uah and RSS, is that uah discards some NOAA-14 data because it "warmed too much". RSS is in much better agreement with other data sets. Below is land temperatures where diurnal drift is most important. UAH lags in the late 1990s/early 2000s when the NOAA-14 data was removed.

Warmest July for RSS - 0.71 vs 0.70 in 2010. 0.8C of warming in past 40 years.

Think this will go down to the wire. The Pac-side pack has been deteriorating in a favorable pattern.

Looking more and more like a 2 horse race

From Amy Butler's twitter. Unusual coupling of the stratosphere and troposphere this summer. Models at times too eager to end pattern.

4 days later forecasts are variable but most keep it going for quite some time - probably helping by preventing a classic dipole

Recent summer warming in the Yukon exceeds the Holocene climatic maximum despite reduced summer insolation vs early Holocene. https://t.co/gCPWogUB5N

Top 100m of ocean. Tends to go up in steps, with this decades step unusually large.

IPO phase could bring September ice-free date forward. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL081393

Antarctic sea ice has large natural variability. Here are a couple of speculations: 1) I don't recall the details but one paper flagged the the large nino in 2015/16. For sea ice the timing does line-up, 2) The antarctic ozone hole is slowly recovering this would tend to weaken winds and produce warming, both of which will reduce sea ice extent 3) Antarctica warming lags because of the deep ocean nearby which is slow to warm. as time proceeds though Antarctica will catch-up. Per the chart below, the south pole has also warmed in the past decade in a way that doesn't match enso, so it is likely more than just enso.

Rapidly receding Arctic Canada glaciers revealing landscapes continuously ice-covered for more than 40,000 years Here we show that pre-Holocene radiocarbon dates on plants collected at the margins of 30 ice caps in Arctic Canada suggest those locations were continuously ice covered for > 40 kyr, but are now ice-free. We use in situ 14C inventories in rocks from nine locations to explore the possibility of brief exposure during the warm early Holocene. Modeling the evolution of in situ 14C confirms that Holocene exposure is unlikely at all but one of the sites. Viewed in the context of temperature records from Greenland ice cores, our results suggest that summer warmth of the past century exceeds now any century in ~115,000 years. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08307-w

With government shutdown, only Berkeley Earth is available for 2018. Clear where we are headed. More details on 2018 at link below. http://berkeleyearth.org/2018-temperatures/

UK met 2019 forecast. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/2019-global-temperature-forecast

November Antarctic sea ice. Blutarsky.

Nino lifting global SST. Bottomed out well above the 2011/12 nina levels.

Not the whole story, but the other man-made and natural factors tend to cancel out.