chubbs

Which stations are from the warmer parts of the County? Chadds Ford, Phoenixville, Devault, West Chester and West Grove. The southern and eastern sections of the county and/or at low elevation are over-represented. Coatesville is in a valley, but at least it is centrally located in the County. Below is a comparison of the 1930-52 and 2010-24 stations you are using. The current set of stations has a much higher weighting of north of turnpike and high elevation. No wonder you can't find the warming that has occurred over recent decades. Most of the "adjustment" you are attributing to NOAA is just changes in your station population from year-to-year and decade to decade. Every time you sub in a station the nature of the station population changes. This is particularly important in the early decades when station numbers are low. You can't separate out climate information without removing measurement inconsistency. Scientists have spent considerable effort in developing methods to remove inconsistency in station location, equipment and errors. This work is decades old and very successful. There is very high confidence in the climate temperature datasets prepared by NOAA and other agencies around the world. Funny/sad that you think you can do a better job by averaging raw data in a spreadsheet without any consideration of station characteristics or data consistency. All of your criticism of the NOAA boils down to one thing. You don't like the NOAA answer. Now you don't even like your own Chescowx answer. Deniers/skeptics have been whining about temperature data for decades. However when it comes to scientific evidence its all talk and no action. Not a shred of scientific evidence has ever been produced. Meanwhile the scientific evidence for the warming we are experiencing in Chester County gets stronger every year, well documented by NOAA and other agencies.

Not sure, but that would make sense. There is a secondary peak in August.

Now you are giving us conspiracy theories. NOAA's climate data is widely used by industry and the general public and is well vetted by testing and comparison with other climate analyses. NOAA is the climate answer for our area. The chart you posted shows how far off your latest “answer” for Chesco is. Not too bad since 2000, where most your data is clustered and you have a representative spread of stations across the county. Then increasingly too warm going back in time as your stations numbers decline and the warmer parts of the county tend to become over-represented. You are the guy making improper adjustments. There is a big difference between your current answer for Chester County and what you were touting a couple of months ago. You have warmed the 1930s to 1990s by 1.4F. Guess a warming present demands a warmer past.

LOL ,It doesn't do you any good to have a lot of data if you don't know how to analyze it. "My data" is mainly your own Chescowx data. Now that it is showing enough warming to contradict your point of view you are disowning it. It obvious that you don't understand how to develop climate information from weather station data. There is strong correlation among weather stations in a region. The high quality stations in our area all show the same climate trend; which is well captured by NOAA. No need to dismiss the best stations when using the NOAA product. One of the main benefits of a dense observing network is station inter-comparison; well used by NOAA and other scientists to develop climate information. The climate trends over recent decades in our area are well established.

Yes the Atlantic MDR should be going up gradually, peaking in late summer, while the global average peaks in late March. I was referring to the recent spike upwards in MDR temps over the past week or so.

Don't know. Here's the site with the original chart (Kim Wood's) https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/SSTmonitoring.html

Yes it is surprising to see SST increasing recently. Atlantic MDR has reached early Aug temps.

Not surprising that you get biased results. Your station mix (which you don't disclose) is changing from decade-to-decade and you aren't accounting for differences between stations in: elevation, latitude, sun exposure, equipment etc. The info you posted in the other thread indicated a relatively warm collection of local stations in the 1940s. Long-term data from Coatesville (3 stations) doesn't show the 1940s as the warmest. Coatesville probably has the best long-term records in the county providing a more consistent basis for comparing decades. Note that bias adjustments don't have much impact on Coatesville decade averages after 1950. The Coatesville data agrees well with NOAA's climate analyses. NOAA removes the bias arising from an inconsistent collection of stations using standard methods that were developed decades ago. Finally I'm not aware of other data showing that the 1940s were warmer. Cherry blossoms weren't coming out earlier in the 1940s for instance.

Another paper summarizing 2023 ocean warming with a comparison to other methods of estimating global heat imbalance. Ocean warming is accelerating. Reasonably good agreement among the methods considering the measurement uncertainty. Global heating rates are running above the worst case scenario (bottom graph). Why? - aerosols are coming down faster than projected due to air pollution control. This warming boost will last another decade or two unless CO2 emissions start to fall as well. https://www.mercator-ocean.eu/en/news/new-paper-co-authored-by-moi-oceanographers-reports-record-breaking-ocean-heat-content-levels-in-2023/

Yes it will take decades to transition away from fossil fuels. Decades of emissions and increasing temperatures in the best of cases. We are committing ourselves to a warmer and warmer future.

Fossil fuels won't provide the same economic benefits in the future that they did in the past, not even close. The best resources are increasingly depleted and climate costs are ramping. Gasoline doesn't cost of $3.50/gal because demand is exploding. We would need alternative energy sources without a climate crisis. An increasing number of countries, the US included, have declining CO2 emissions with a growing economy.

Ceres net radiation data has been updated through January. As expected in a strong nino, the radiation imbalance has been shrinking since last summer, as the warmer atmosphere increases outgoing radiation. The downcycle should run for a while longer; but, we have a ways to go to return to 2015/16 conditions.

There is confusion about whether the warming rate is accelerating and/or climate sensitivity is higher than expected. An acceleration in the warming rate starting around 2010 is expected due to reductions in aerosol emissions. Per a recent Real Climate blog, Hanson's yellow cone is inline with CMIP6 model predictions. There is a large body of work on climate sensitivity, so will need multiple studies and sustained warming above the red line to move the needle. We will see. One final comment: increased forcing from aerosol reduction is better than increased forcing from CO2 emission increases. Aerosol emissions are going to zero anyway. The acceleration has a shelf life on the order of decades before aerosols are depleted.. By pulling the aerosol reductions forward in time due to air pollution control we are giving ourselves a preview of our climate future. Maybe it will spur action. Not that we have placed ourselves in a good position, with warming accelerating just as we approach 1.5C warming; which means we are leaving our comfortable Holocene climate. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/04/much-ado-about-acceleration/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=much-ado-about-acceleration

Funny, Chesco is helping make the "alarmist" case. Googling indicates we have the same CO2 concentrations today as 14 million years ago. Only the ocean and cryosphere, which are slow to adjust to higher CO2, are keeping us close to our old climate. The good news is that the ocean will take up CO2 if we get emissions under control. We aren't committed yet to going back 14 million years. Its up to us to decide how far back in time we want to go. One thing is certain though. Ignoring the problem is going to make the future more alarming, not less. https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2023/12/07/a-new-66-million-year-history-of-carbon-dioxide-offers-little-comfort-for-today/ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adi5177

I agree that albedo effects from fertilization are not.as important as CO2 radiation effects or plant evapotranspiration, which is important in the case of midwest corn. On-the-other hand, don't think Maguire has debunked albedo effects either. CO2 fertilization has a relatively small climate effect that needs to be evaluated carefully to determine if it is positive or negative. Found a paper (link below) which isolated the biophysical effects of CO2 fertilization on climate. CO2 fertilization had a net warming due to effect mainly due to the albedo effect of the northward advance of Boreal forests. Considered separately in the paper, increased CO2 sequestration would offset the albedo effect in the short-term but not in the long-term. In any case the climate effects of CO2 fertilization are small,and the radiation effects of CO2 are dominating. Note also that increasing CO2, increases atmospheric water vapor leading to a radiation effect that is in the same ballpark as the effect of increased CO2 alone. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2006.00210.x

I don't know Paul, I get a different picture after checking the reference. For one thing I couldn't find the chart you posted. It must be from the supporting material. As for the body of the paper, it showed clear evidence for climate change in temperature and heavy precipitation. Below is a text snippet, a couple of charts and the paper link. This leaves me wondering where you get your information from. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019JD032263

I have no problem going back before 1960. I'll go way back, but I'm not going to limit myself to a small slice of biased data. No. I want to look at all the data and use the best methods to analyze it. From the last IPCC report

Don't get me wrong there are many reasons to plant trees and trees produce a net cooling in many parts of the world. Once it is in the atmosphere removing CO2 will be costly and slow. Using renewables/batteries/electrification to not emit CO2 in the first place is by far the cheapest strategy, particularly with costs continuing to drop.

Related to the CO2 fertilization post above, the recent study below accounted for the albedo effect of planting trees. In many places around the world, planting trees causes warming, as increases in absorbed sunlight offset the benefit from CO removal. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-46577-1

The article linked was more sanguine about CO2 effects than your write up. Not all of the greening is due to CO2 and increased greening is a mixed blessing. Your description of radiation effects isn't correct. Increased photosynthesis causes plants to absorb more sunlight, and reflect less, so greening generally causes warming. The effect is particularly large in the arctic where greening is mainly due to expansion of shrubs and trees northward. The greener surface absorbs much more sunlight than the snow or tundra surface it replaces. I believe these effects are included in models but am not familiar with the details. Finally here's a short interview with an ag expert, who expects a negative impact from CO2 on agriculture in most areas. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/is-co2-plant-food

This recent study shows that global heat waves are becoming more frequent, lasting longer, covering larger areas, moving slower, and bringing higher temperatures. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adl1598 Compounding the effects of high temperature, global dew point and wet bulb temperatures are also rising.

Chesco didn't show us Figure 1 and 2, must have been an oversight.

You can't prove your assertions either. I can provide evidence of climate and weather change, reams of evidence. That's something you are short on..

Don't blame me for the "alarmist" talking points, those are Investopedia's points. In a similar vein here's a story on rising Insurance costs in Texas from the Texas Tribune. Hopefully you won't find the climate aspect too alarming. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/11/30/texas-homeowner-insurance-climate-change-costs/ The science is simple and not controversial. Warmer air holds more water. Droughts, fires, storms etc., behave differently in a warmer world. Your talking point sounds good but misses the mark technically. The fact that we have always had these events is a reason to be concerned, not relieved. In a warmer world, thunderstorms have more CAPE, hurricanes higher OHC, rain storms more water vapor, fires and droughts accelerated drying conditions. Per chart below, locally a 100-year flood is now a 20-year flood. I am going to throw it back on you – What weather events aren't being impacted by climate change?