Buffalo Bumble

Snowing heavily here, big flakes accumulating quickly.  Was it supposed to start this early?  I was expecting a lull until later this afternoon...

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I chased in Dunkirk in late 2017 but it wasn’t a big event. My process for all my wx chases are the same: I like to do my research, pick my spot, and setup before an event starts. I’m pretty stationary during it (I prefer the long jebwalk) and well stocked if things get rough.

I think driving is the biggest risk so I stay away from that if I can. I’d want a lot more LES experience (and better car) before considering driving through the best of a band. Long way to go before I’m blasting through 6”/hr monster bands like @BuffaloWeather lol.

Nice, sounds like you're well prepared.  You should be in for a great show the next few days.  If/when the band drops south of Watertown onto the Tug, you might consider taking a short drive west on Rt 3 to Sackets Harbor.  Great elevated views of the lake there, you could probably get some epic pictures of the band coming off the lake.  Couple nice restaurants/breweries there too.  

Pretty impressive and fast temperature rise here.  I was at 16 deg around 3 PM, up to 32 now.  Dunkirk up to 35 with a strong south wind.  And quite the temp gradient across upstate right now with the north country at or below 0.  

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
WATERTOWN      CLOUDY     3  -6  66 NE14      29.89F WCI -15
FORT DRUM      NOT AVBL
OGDENSBURG     CLOUDY     0 -17  46 NE7G15    29.98F WCI -13
MASSENA        CLOUDY     1 -13  51 E15G23    30.06F WCI -18
SARANAC LAKE   FAIR      -4 -12  68 NE8       29.88F WCI -19
PLATTSBURGH    CLOUDY     0 -14  51 NW5       30.12F WCI -10
$$

NYZ001>004-010>016-019>021-085-290400-
WEST


CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
NIAGARA FALLS  CLOUDY    23  14  68 E6        29.66F WCI  16
BUFFALO        CLOUDY    31  17  56 CALM      29.66S
DUNKIRK        CLOUDY    35  19  52 S18G40    29.63F WCI  24
JAMESTOWN      CLOUDY    27  13  55 S14G20    29.66F WCI  16
WELLSVILLE     CLOUDY    22   8  55 S9G17     29.73F WCI  12
ROCHESTER      CLOUDY    23  11  60 SE8       29.76F WCI  14
PENN YAN       CLOUDY    26   9  48 S10       29.80F WCI  16

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know LES is a tough business. I couldn’t live long if every season areas just a few miles away got smoked while I watched flurries.

We usually don’t have this problem with coastals. We fail on the dreaded rain/snow line. Or a total whiff. 

Good luck...but not too much lol

Hey, props to you for making the trek to Watertown to chase this event!  Just curious, have you chased lake effect events before?  This one could be pretty high on the danger side with the combination of heavy snow, strong winds, and frigid temps...

For entertainment purposes only...here's my WAG at upcoming snowfall through Friday:

Erie Jack: BUF Airport - 27" 

Other notable Erie locations: Williamsville - 18"; West Seneca - 23"; Hamburg - 20"; Colden - 19"

Ontario Jack: Barnes Corners: 47"

Other notable Ontario locations: Watertown - 23"; Osceola/Highmarket - 29"; Redfield - 14"

1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah that map seems very suspect for sure but I guess it’s possible...

It's raining and 40 deg in Cleveland right now.  Probably not warm enough to open much water up down there, but any little melting will help to prime the pump.  

33 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

I think it may have broken up some further down towards Cleveland with temperatures above freezing and strong southerly winds, but that is definitely going to inhibit lake effect bands of Erie significantly. It'll probably be frozen over by Thursday afternoon, so ski country probably won't see too much

I'm surprised at that map. Figured with the strong band that fired up in southern Erie County late yesterday afternoon that a good chunk of the central basin was still open.  

50 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Going out with BuffaloWeather right now to chase that band in North Collins. Band looks fantastic! 

Snow must be really piling up down there, been more or less in a band all day. Look forward to your report!  

30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Hmm... BUF just doesn’t really seemed impressed with the lake effect for the metro on Wednesday. I mean will still are 2 1/2 days out but their verbiage is very lackluster...

Record cold is certainly a possibility.
West-southwest flow will lead to a lake response during this time
with snow showers northeast of the Lakes Wednesday. It won`t be
until Wednesday afternoon and evening that another clipper moves
into the Upper Great Lakes and the lake response intensifies east of
the Lakes by Thursday morning. These winds will also produce
dangerous wind chills to -20F to -30 Wed-Wed night


.

Interesting...was thinking the Tuesday night to Wed night period would be the best shot for northtowns, but per this maybe dry air will hold things down during that time.  Hopefully things trend better and we start to at least see some watches pop up in WNY by tomorrow afternoon. 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you have the link to this page?

I'm really surprised by this. Even near Cleveland there is just broken ice. Monday and Tuesday look around 32 which will stop the icing. Even more intrigued for the Weds-Fri event now. 

Same here, figured any lake effect this week off Erie would be battling a lot of ice cover. That band this morning in southern Erie was cranking, so that’s a good sign too. 

To each his own, but as a northtowner I would chalk up yesterday as a great event. If I’m expecting a 12”+ lake effect event here every couple years I’m gonna be disappointed a lot.  

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Was just going to post...snowfall rates have picked up again and the band looks to have strengthened.

Yeah, band looks great right now. South Buf to West Seneca should be in the thick of it. 

Pretty cellular here for last couple hours. But when it comes down it pounds. Fun watching this wiggle around and spit little bursts around. 

Should be some big totals with that band just north of the Tug.  Copenhagen to Carthage jackpot?

1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

What a beautiful radar. This is the type of band and setup that spurred my interest in weather at an early age; when I lived in North Tonawanda. . Makes me nostalgic to be honest. 

Yeah, it's almost mesmerizing, isn't it?  

Couple pics from this afternoon's ski at Knox Farm.  In a funny twist...I left home around 2:30 today to chase the snow in southern/central Erie County, and it ended up chasing me right back home!  

Snow++ here!

About to hit the road north from EA. Still ripping here, eyeballing 2”/hour. 

I’m out Cross country skiing at Knox Farm in EA. Band just moved in here. Vis way down. Pics later!

I'm very curious to see what the Euro snow map looks like for next week.  I have absolutely no idea what the weather would look like in upstate as depicted on the Euro with a 1002 mb low over Delta's house on Tuesday, then a 985 mb low screeming up the CT river valley on Wednesday.  Won't happen, but wonder what kind of snow/rain that sucker spits out...

30 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Wow there must have been an odd cutoff south last night...are you in the City? I have almost 6" now after the last 1/2" came through about 45 minutes ago in Williamsville. 

I’m in Snyder, just west of the village of Williamsville. So yeah, probably outside the band last night by about 2,000 feet...

Couple inches here overnight. Looks like Hamburg to Colden getting pounded. BUF Weather probably out doing snow angels as I type this. 

I’m trying to wrap my head around what the sensible weather will look like around here IF the PV somehow deposits itself in the upper GL’ next Tue-Thur. Bitter cold bone dry air with blue skies...bands of lake effect as thermal trofs pinwheel around the lakes...mothers crying in the streets for their babies...Oh the possibilities. 

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

Clipper looks nice on the ecwmf after this les event. 

Sunday?

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Snow pack is gone but boy did that changeover happen quick! It’s ripping outside this morning! HUGE flakes!!!


.

Held on to some snow cover here, and the heavy snow this morning is a nice refresher. Looks like about 2” so far, sticking to everything. Welcome back winter.