Buffalo Bumble

Quick report from my trip to Lake Placid last Thursday to yesterday...About 4" of snow fell Wed night into Thursday morning, which was good b/c the snow pack up there outside of the higher elevations was pretty much wiped out before that.  A few more inches fell Thursday night, driven by a cold and somewhat moist northwest upslope flow.  While not prolific like we see in the lake effect belts, those upslope mountain snows are great.  Several hours of big flakes parachuting down.  Friday was a bluebird day, and very cold (my car thermometer ranged from -5 to +3 driving around to various hiking spots during the day).  Below photo is facing the Great Range from a place called Henry's Woods outside LP.  Snow started again Saturday afternoon.  Accumulations were initially held in check from downsloping off the high peaks.  Snow picked up early Sunday AM as flow switched direction to the northwest.  About 8" fresh snow as we left town Sunday evening, probably double that up above 4K feet.  All in all a well timed trip to the ADK's preceded by a prolonged winter hiatus.  

Posting from Chaumont (bit NW of Watertown)...moderate snow here this morning, about 3” OTG. Ground was bare when we arrived last night. 

Back to the non winter news...Chaumont Bay has been totally ice free the last week. Father in law reports never seeing this in mid-Jan in his 70+ years being here (parts of the bay are quite shallow, no business being open this time of year). I guess that’s what +11 departures get you from Christmas to now. 

I also heard from a couple people back in WNY that their magnolias started budding, others report opening taps on maple trees to start some maple production. Surely all signs of the apocalypse. 

17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is amazing. Thanks for this. I have to buy crampons for our hike. I cannot wait. I also need new gear, hiking up 5k mountains with temps in the single digits and 4' of snow can be dangerous. Hopefully we see some moose of wolves too, last time they saw a  moose up there. ( I think it was New Hampshire though) Not sure if moose are in the dacks still? 

In my experience microspikes are more than adequate for ADK high peak winter hikes (a good pair though).  I hiked Gothics in December when it was quite icy, and microspikes worked just fine.  Make sure to have at least one hiking partner.  And choose your peak(s) wisely.  I hiked Wright a few winters ago.  Got above tree line and had difficulty following cairns to the peak with 50+ mph winds and near 0 vis.  Summit of Wright is notorious for high winds and severe conditions.  

I'm heading up to Lake Placid tomorrow, mostly cross-country skiing rather than hiking this trip.  That is if the snow makes an appearance in time.  Will post some pics to get you jazzed up for your trip!

For those keeping score...BUF came in with a +29 deg departure yesterday. Sitting at +11.5 for the month. Not a single negative departure day at BUF since December 20th!  Looks like each of the next 6 days will be above average. If that holds, we’ll be at about 30 straight days with + departures. Remarkable. 

Roaring outside!  You forget how intimidating high wind sounds until you get woken up by a 70mph gust with the windows shaking. 

Seeing some big flashes now in the distance too. Not sure if lightning or transformers popping. Probs the latter. 

65 at BUF!!!!

63 degrees right now with breaks of sun. Would be lying if I said it doesn’t feel great. 

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't know, but the snow spotter there posted this picture of the road leading to the ROC airport...

Since we’re all baring our souls today...I’m 46 with a 21 yr old daughter about to graduate college. So I have lots of time to participate, just less $ after sending our daughter to Netherlands to study abroad and Thailand in a couple months for spring break!  Oh, and I have an ancient beagle/Springer mix. 15 and going strong!  

26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs was pretty impressive on the backside of the 16th cutter, especially for the higher elevations..I follow lol

I’ll be in Lake Placid at that time, so sign me up!  

21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Maybe a little bit of lake enhancement there?

 

Could be...made for a nice walk with fat flakes pouring down. Probably going to hit 3” out of this. We’ll take it and run in this pattern. 

Steady fall of snow through the evening here. Everything is fully covered, actually looks quite wintry out for the first time in a while.  Decent radar returns about to push through as well. 

42 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Nah... The D fell asleep in the 2nd half. Rule of thumb all season has been score 17+ and the D should be able to hold them them to... Played way to conservative in the 4th...


.

Tough loss...Need to put up at least 20 points if you expect to win a playoff game, especially on the road. If someone has any good weather news to ease the pain I’m all ears. 

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll gladly trade a snowless 2 weeks for a Bills victory today. 

Sabres got us started, time for the Bills to do this!!!

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

A dusting that is already gone here. Overnight runs look terrible for the next 10 days. Going to need some serious reshuffling to get anything that resembles winter. 

+12 for the month at BUF thru yesterday with nothing but + departures in sight. I’ll set the January over/under line at +10...

About an inch OTG here as it tapers off. 

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Idk I don't dabble in this witchcraft u guys call LR forecasting lol

All I know is I haven't seen full grass since November. 

We still have 3 months to go, as bad as last year was I still finished with 177° for the year .

We will pay for this in the long run when it's snowing into may..

Man, the long range op runs are just a steady train of southwest flow...and not the kind that bring epic snow to BUF. More like January dandelions to Freak’s backyard.  Looks like the polar opposite of those April to end of May periods where the flow just won’t budge from the northwest.  Need a major reshuffling of the deck to get our winter started. 

Open water as far as the eye can see on Lake Erie.  Photo taken this evening at the Lake Erie/Niagara River interface, facing southwest down the lake.  

2 hours ago, daxx said:

I don't live anywhere in this sub, so a little hesitant to post.  I'm not sure why you would want to move so far, when in most years on the Tug it is an amazing place to live. I have stayed in many places on the Tug in the last 15 years for vacations. I found the best areas to be is just southeast of Lorraine to Worth, down to just 5 miles north of Redfield. I'm not an expert of the area at all, this is just first hand experience. Maybe you can convince your wife to move back north a short distance. I'm rooting for you guys to pile it up!  I will be up in February!

No question the Tug rocks in the winter.  But as we're seeing over the last couple weeks it's subject to big thaws that shred the snow pack.  Outside of maybe northern Maine, the UP is probably the most reliable location for both constant snow pack and cold east of the Rockies.  Lake effect snow is frequent.  When storms cut over NY or even to our west, it's usually a snowstorm for the UP.  Probably the place to be for the ultra snow lover who doesn't want to live in mountains out West.  

2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Keep hearing different ideas of how January, and indeed the winter, will turn out. Up here in Canada, Environment Canada is calling for a mild winter ,while The Weather Network is calling for a cold winter. Ryan Maue is calling for a warm first half of January while JB is calling for a big flip to cold. Will be interesting to see how it all turns out. I hope this doesn't go the way of 2005-2006 - that winter was originally predicted to be cold only for January to be a torch.

How’s the snowpack doing up in Ottawa? I have some time off and was considering heading north to get in some cross country skiing. Certainly not happening around here for a while. 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My car thermometer read 61. I just went to Lowes in shorts.

Buy some flowers to plant tomorrow?  Some red and white petunias might look nice for New Year’s...

Currently 56 deg here with a heat index of 68...Seriously, it’s really warm out right now!  The 56 deg does feel warmer with some humidity in the air and no wind. 

This type of winter nighttime warmth usually precedes a strong cold front that sucks GOM air up in front of it. Not so much this time...Kinda weird actually. 

Just now, wolfie09 said:

As of DEC 19th North Redfield had 3" more inches than Rochester lol

She is headed for an all time worst year if things don't improve soon..

Crazy. But then again it seems like the trend throughout the ‘10’s is for winter to not really kick in until mid January.  If any silver lining this week, the lakes shouldn’t be losing any heat...Maybe Erie even jumps a degree or 2. 

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The northern stream might as well be in Siberia haha It's one after another on the European, all the cold air bottled to the north..

 

Yikes...Hopefully temps creep back near normal by around NY’s and we end up on the favorable side of storm tracks.  

10 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We continue to drop..

Yep, minus 3 as we approach Watertown.