showmethesnow

I know that many on here detest Breitbart but I thought they might find the information in this article note worthy in regards to what we are seeing with the hospitals as well as what we have seen in regards to the IHME. There is nothing political about it is just general information which is of a very positive note vs. what we were seeing just days ago.. And NO it does not mean I am Right Wing fanatic that inhabits Breitbart, it just means that I am well read who visits many of the Right and Left sites to get a perspective from both sides. https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/04/06/u-s-coronavirus-hospitalizations-lower-than-predicted-ny-marks-75-drop/

Haven't really been following it for awhile about peak dates per state but the last I checked I believe the IHME had a peak date of May 14 for MD. That was roughly a week or so ago but I just looked now and if I am reading it right it is now showing the peak to occur just past the mid point of April (the 18th) much closer to the National avg. of April 15th. I really am not sure to what to say at this point. That is a huge difference (month) in just roughly a weeks period of time. I have already stated my doubts about the model and this puts further doubt in my mind on its accuracy. But they get paid the big bucks so they are more likely right then this average Joe's opinion. Now these peaks are based off of projected resource use so it won't completely align with affection rates but it does give us a pretty decent ballpark figure to base max infections are at. eta: I also question if this might argue for a higher infection rate (at least through the general MD region) then the model has been projecting. I will have to let this percolate through my mind for awhile though before I would jump to this conclusion.

Wanted to also add to my previous post as far as when we will start lifting containment of the Showme household. End of April is pretty much the earliest that we will start this as it is based on the best case scenario based off the national peak average. Unfortunately we are seeing dates of roughly mid-May for the peak in MD. And like it or not Hanover is more associated with MD then the much earlier date that we are seeing in PA. So we could very well be locked up for an additional several weeks if not longer.

Talking 2 weeks where we have had no contact with anyone outside the household (we have stayed totally at home). We were practicing social distancing and limited stay at home the 2 weeks or so prior though. I had pretty much stocked up on everything we would need to ride this out for up to 2 months about 6/7 weeks ago (so I missed the TP hysteria ). So the 2 weeks prior to our total lock down my wife did go into work a few days (short work days) and I made a couple quick trips to the grocery storm for fresh/perishable food items. Oh, and there was a couple of Dominoes runs thrown in there as well . As far as how much longer we continue this total lock down I am looking at the end of April before we start peaking our heads out of the bunker.

Dear Diary, We are now 2 weeks into our lock down. Supplies are running low. Trying to decide if I want a sardine and jelly sandwich or whether I prefer a cake icing and capers one. Now if I only had bread.

All I can say is I continue to have serious doubts about the IHME projected 3% infection rate nation wide through this wave of the pandemic. Everything I am seeing argues strongly against this figure as to where it is underdone if not grossly underdone. I also question if we don't see a longer period at the apex of the curve (the highest infection rates) then currently projected by the model of a week to a week and a half. I believe there is the potential we will see a longer period at the apex, potentially much longer. How much longer I really haven't thought through at this time. Now my reasoning for a longer period is loosely associated to the idea behind the 6 degrees of separation. Now maybe later on I will try to write something up to break down my thoughts on this how the 6 degrees of separation is coming into play. Six degrees of separation Six degrees of separation is the idea that all people are six, or fewer, social connections away from each other. Also known as the 6 Handshakes rule. As a result, a chain of "a friend of a friend" statements can be made to connect any two people in a maximum of six steps.

Okay we just looked at a case of where travel time was a limiting factor on outward spread, where it could only move outward as quickly as the the fastest mode of travel by the host. In the example above we were talking the fastest mode being that of a horse. Now I want to expand on that a touch. There are natural barriers put in place that will either stop the spread or make it very difficult to continue. In the example below we see mountains to the north and an ocean to the east. Now these barriers may or may not stop it (depending on if travel is possible over/through/around) but regardless they are a major impediment to its spread in those directions. So let's see how this would play out over time using travel time and natural barriers and assuming there are available host throughout.. Each red circle is a week further in time. Notice what we are seeing is a ripple effect such as you would see if you dropped a rock into a pool of water. But we are also seeing these ripples die as they meet the natural barriers (Ocean/east, mountains/SW) These two factors alone (travel time and natural barriers) play an extremely important role in limiting the spread of a disease. In earlier centuries these quite often put the brakes on any major outspread of disease throughout Europe and Asia. Now on my next post that I will throw up later today I want to show what happens when you take these two limiting factors to a virus' spread out of the equation. It is not a pretty picture and one reason I believe we are more likely then ever to experience out breaks in this world that will make the ones we saw in past years pale in comparison.

Dear Diary, Day 13 of the lock down. Have made a new friend today. His name is Sam. Had some wonderful stories to tell. Also had a tragic story about losing most of his family to a mysterious mist. Note to self. Throw the spray can of Raid away.

Pulled this from an article. ____________________________ Barrasso reacted to White House Coronavirus Task Force member Dr. Anthony Fauci telling CNN’s Anderson Cooper that the state should be implementing stay-at-home orders. “The tension between federally mandated versus states rights to do what they want is something I don’t want to get into, but if you look at what is going on in this country, I just don’t understand why we’re not doing that in their state,” Fauci said. _____________________ I admit I LOL at Barrasso's response. _____________________ “We do have a state of emergency in Wyoming. Anyone coming into our state, there is a 14-day quarantine. People are staying at home,” the Republican Wyoming senator told “Fox & Friends.” “But remember that people are spread out here. We only have about five people per square mile. We have been socially distancing the entire 130 years that we have been a state,”

I think we are getting pretty close in that regard. And unlike the WHO test which needs to be sent to a lab to grow enough virus to test we will be seeing Johnny on the Spot testing where we can get results in hours if not minutes. Really think that will not be an issue when we do start ramping the country back up.

You are a lost cause. After this post I am pretty much done responding to you. Can't argue/debate someone that selectively chooses which facts he wants to believe and which they want to ignore all for the sake of their hatred for one man. Now I am going to leave a departing comment to put in perspective your dismisissing/defending of China. China basically gave the rest of the world the big old middle finger with withholding this information on the virus a month+. And that is probably understating what they did considering we are talking 100's of thousands, if not millions of deaths can be laid at their door. This doesn't even take in account they have basically shut down a majority of the world for several months. And if reports of earlier cases in November are in fact true there is the potential that China was even aware of this problem upwards of 3 months before releasing that. Now there is one important thing to consider here, motives. After all you have to understand the motives behind such a blatant disregard for the rest of the world. First, it could be nothing more then the fact that they were embarrassed at the fact they could not contain this. After all, image in the eye's of others is very important within their Culture. Let's just say, if this was the case then it is probably one of the stupidest reasons for signing the death of so many. But second, we could have also seen them trying to cover up a mishap with their level 4 bio-lab that they did not want to become known. I guess that is a more worth while reason though still stupid in the extreme. But now let's consider a third. What if in fact they were hit much harder then they are letting on. So hard that they would have dropped a peg or two in the World order. This would be absolutely unacceptable to the CCP who has been striding so hard over the last several decades to become the World Power. This is a China that had reached a point in strength where they felt they could get away with expansionism/imperialism without outside interference from the other world powers as we have seen over the last few years. To get knocked back down was not an option so they took the recourse of allowing this virus to spread world wide to knock down their competitors as well to once again put everyone on an even footing. This scenario should scare the Hell out of any sane human being. After all China has nukes for God's sake. Now I try to look at the best in people so I would like to believe that it was the first case, no matter how stupid, that was the driving force with with holding this information. But I can tell you right now the information that has been leaking out really is starting to make me favor the other two options. I just hope for the world's sake it wasn't the third. Because if it is, it doesn't bode well for our future.

Businesses yes, not so sure about the administration as of yet. They have been hinting at an earlier time frame the last several weeks then I am somewhat comfortable with but that has been pushed back several times to where I now believe they are suggesting the end of April. This is within my projected time frame from above but I do believe that may still be a week or two early.

That will probably be one of the hardest industries to get back on line. But that too will hopefully get back to a somewhat semblance of normalcy towards the fall. But that will be somewhat dependent on what we see as far as a secondary wave if it in fact exists.

Most definitely. We are seeing the peaks of infection spread out over a month or more through different portions of the region. It will be a process where we see states relaxing things a week or two beyond the peak where the numbers argue we won't see a substantial bump up in infection rates. Rates of new infections where the state can quickly jump in and quarantine the new infections.

Trials can last years I believe. That is part of the red tape and regs I have mentioned on previous posts. We are going to see a relaxation of this though. Just no way around it. Time just does not afford us the luxury of extensive tests.

Knew you were a bitter old man but a sh*thead? Never knew.

Actually I am starting to believe there is something to cosequine and these other Malaria drugs. But it still doesn't change the fact that it is not a cure. And if we let the infection rate overwhelm the medical systems they do very little good if we can't administer them to many of the patients that may need them due to lack of bed space. Not even sure what type of supplies we do have as far as these drugs. Might not be in sufficient quantities to come close to meeting our needs. Really at this point we are doing the best thing possible with social distancing ignoring all other possible factors.

I think you are under estimating the resiliency of Americans. Will it curtail the activities? Most definitely. But will people continually shut down everything in fear of the virus? No. We will see a testing of the waters by many on the first week or two but after that they will start diving right back in after they see no disaster has befallen them.

Yes, if in fact it does help to lower the death rate it will help to alleviate the worries many will have as they begin starting their lives back up.

That will play a part somewhat. But the fact it is not a cure and just a possible method of mitigating the deaths attributed to the virus really lowers it's impact. After all what we really need at this time is a lowering of the infection rate and that doesn't achieve that.

Really even hesitant about jumping into the lives vs. the economy debate but I do want to throw a couple things out there. One has to consider at some point whether the cure eventually becomes worse then the disease. Here are some things to consider with our current shut down. It is not just about the stock market though quite a few people have taken a massive hit with their retirement funds. One has to consider that many/most people live paycheck to paycheck. They can not afford to go months and months without having money coming in (just forget the stimulus money, it will only tide people over for a short period of time and the money needed to sustain these people with higher stimulus money just does not exists). Any prolonged absence of income will put them in a position where they are spending months, if not years, trying to catch up. So the money they would typically spend on consumer goods that stimulates the economy is now being diverted to catching up on bills. Considering how many are living week to week this will very quickly put the brakes on any economic recover and actually throw us into a deep depression. A depression that will only exacerbate the financial hardships that many will experience. Now I just mentioned the basics on the financial aspects here. There is much more to consider. The overall stress on many throughout the shutdown financially, emotionally, physically and psychologically are high now and they will only increase the longer we are shutdown. Stresses that are already at extremely high levels. Now many of you scoffed at Trumps comment about suicides. But scoff as you may, this will be an issue we will have to deal with as people come out of this finding their lives drastically altered if not almost destroyed completely. This doesn't even factor in that we will probably see a sky rocketing of addiction as people try to cope with the new reality. And the longer we have to deal with this shut down the worse it will be. Now there are other factors to consider as well but I am not going to delve in them at this time. So what it really comes down to is a balancing act as to when we decide to start loosening the lock down where we can get us out of this with the least amount of damage. I mentioned last week that I was thinking 4-6 weeks and a max of 8. I still am running with that idea (would now be 3-5 weeks, max of 7).

I was curious as to whether prior exposure to SARS or maybe even MERS or some other virus may have provided some immunity for the countries that experienced these outbreaks. Looking over it it looks as if that it is still up for debate. Know every little on virology so I was wonder if any that were more knowledgeable would have a take on this.

Now the the topic I first threw up was about spread in a self contained bubble of a small community without interference (below at day 10). But let's see what happens when we expand on that. Below we have a collection of communities. Our infected community is in the center in red. Now let's see what happens when we have interaction between all these communities. The virus in this example has a life cycle of 8 days from initial infection until the host is no longer contagious. Now lets assume we have an infected travel who just caught the virus departing to each of these communities. In example A we are seeing 14 days to that community. Well above the 8 day life cycle of the virus so we see no spread. In example B we have a traveler heading to a community only three days away so there will be spread. Any infected traveler now departing from that community as they travel to the farthest out community now runs into the same issue as example A where the travel time is longer then the life cycle of the virus. So we see no spread. But let's look at example C. Travel time to the farthest out community is 11 days. It is beyond the 8 day life cycle of the virus so you would think they would be spared. But that is not the case. What we have are steeping stones for this virus to hop scotch to that point. In fact the virus can take 2 different routes to reach the farthest community. It can hopscotch from community 1 to 2 then move forward or it can move directly to 2 and then proceed, as both these routes are within the life cycle time frame. Now let's see what we have a month later. Note that we have seen the infection limited as we now have another limiting factor to its spread. And that is travel time from one group of hosts to another potential group of hosts. Now this example is based on individual travelers departing to each of these communities. It does not take into account the possibility of groups of individuals traveling together where they can infect each other on the trip thus expanding the life cycle of the virus substantially. Now these travel time are unrealistic in our current age when people can now travel from one side of the globe within hours. These times are more representative of a bygone period of time. So I guess what I am saying is that we no longer have the luxury of this very important limiting factor in play as they did years ago which would quite often see outbreaks burnout before they could reach the more distant communities/nations.

Can't even begin to debate you when it comes to economics but I will throw one thing out there. Granted I agree with your thoughts as far as the US having a strong economy heading into this thing where one would typically expect a strong bounce back. But now all the worlds economies are so intertwined we also need to be aware of what is occurring elsewhere. From what I see the EU will struggle after the fact which will put a damper on things on the worlds economy. But the real elephant in the room is China who has massive fingers intertwined into everything. I have a feeling they took a massive hit with this virus, far worse then they are letting on. Now the CCP may very well be able to force the issue on getting the economy up and running again quickly despite things. But what if they can't or even worse we see an uprising after the extremely draconian measures they have/are evidently employing (not that I am particularly expecting that)? Now excepting an uprising a sluggish Chinese economy would really hamper the recovery of the world's economies. So we are pretty much talking at that point can a strong economic recovery by the US pull up the world's economies or would China and the EU drag them down?

Thanks for the update. You said they are getting good results with the chloroquine? Are they using that as a cocktail or a stand alone? And if it is a cocktail what other drugs are they employing? Just curious as other studies have used different drugs.