showmethesnow

Actually have been stating a .75-1.25 mortality rate for some time now. What I didn't mention because I thought I would be laughed off these boards was the fact that when I took a little different approach to calculate these numbers I was actually coming in with under .2%. And honestly I didn't particularly believe this after hearing 15+% rates in Europe. Just figured my logic was faulty or I was just screwing up the math.

Study out of Germany that I posted a couple of days ago. Not that I particularly am believing it but the fact of the matter is we are seeing more and more coming out of the possibilities of a larger spread.

Really not sure we can use Iceland as an example in this regard. The differences in numbers involved are of many magnitudes greater here. Much easier to control a virus through mediation when you are dealing with such small numbers. That said, I could very well be wrong as far as my thoughts on total spread. Will not deny that. I had my questions as far as the impacts of Social Distancing and I error-ed on the low side for various reasons when I crunched the numbers about a month ago. But I do believe the numbers they are projecting now are off the mark by a good bit (below 2% infection rate last I saw?). So though we may not see the 15% (which I favored over the 20%) I do believe we will approach 8-10% minimum.

We are well into community spread. At that point there is really no way to do tracing to find out those that have been infected. The only way at this point is to test everyone (or at least a very significant portion). eta: As far as the under 1%. Not so sure that is the case. We have seen several studies come out in recent days that say we are looking at a far bigger spread. One suggest the possibility of 8x what they are currently stating.

Though I do believe we saw a much higher infection rate then is currently believed I see no way we are even sniffing an 80% rate. Right now I am thinking we may see 15-20% of the population after this first go round. That in its own right will help somewhat to make containment easier on any future outbreaks. Where it really comes into play though is the higher rates will be seen in the cities where I am thinking we will see 30-35%, possibly even 40 on some of the harder hit ones. Considering the cities are pretty much the breeding grounds for this virus to see the rates I just stated come into play will have a significant impact on any future outbreaks. This is one of the reasons I feel that if we have to endure a second wave this fall/winter it will be of far less significance then we are currently seeing.

Not really sure a massive testing and tracing is even feasible. Might have to rely on testing and tracing for future cases to try to contain with a healthy dose of Social Distancing thrown in as well. Depending on how many actually were infected in the first round will play a big part as you do start seeing a somewhat significant impact on the limiting of spread with the larger number of those that have already contracted it.

Yeah. pretty sure they had testing though I would have to go back and check. Doesn't do you any good though if China decides they are no longer going to do the testing. They have also been destroying records as well. We may never truly know exactly when/where this virus originated and our patient zero. Far too many secondary sources have come out that claim that the CCP have for the most part destroyed the records concerning these earlier cases. Really, everything that we are seeing is indicative of a massive cover-up. The question is, will the world allow it and move on its merry way. Sadly, this is research that is vitally important on understanding virus spread at onset and yet none of the research that they have thrown out should realistically be used. If it is used in future studies we are potentially talking a virus model/response that is fatally flawed and could cost us lives, potentially a substantial number on any future outbreak.

Does this possibly help? https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/live-updates-severe-storms-moving-through-metro-atlanta/ar-BB12wO4Z

I am not so sure that may be the case. They locked down Jia County (600,000 people) roughly 2 weeks ago and just shut down this past Wed. Suifenhe City, Heilongjang (100,000 residents). China is such a massive country with many remote regions. It is to be expected that maybe some of these regions will be several weeks if not longer beyond the curve we were seeing in the more populous regions. So when they were claiming victory several weeks ago I had to laugh. There was really no way in Hell that I could see that they had achieved it just for the more populous ares let alone for the more remote regions. eta: Also wanted to add at roughly the same time they were claiming victory there were reports that they were actually refusing to test for the virus. There were far too many reports of this just to ignore this possibility.

You are referring to the herd immunity approach to dealing with a virus. Allowing the virus to play out naturally without any outside interference. You could do that but then you have to deal with the casualties in the wake. And when you have a virus with a fairly high mortality rate that is an awful lot of bodies to bury if we are talking 80% of a population. About the only time I can see this approach being reasonable is if we are dealing with a virus that has an extremely low mortality rate. As far as the ground truth with China's numbers and their accuracy? The way I am seeing it through crunching some numbers they are substantially under playing what we in fact saw. And consensus is growing that this is in fact the case. We could very well be talking 5x, 6x maybe even 10x is the actual ground truth. There is really no way to truly know when they are controlling all the information. All we can do is try to glean an idea from secondary sources.

That has been the problem since day 1. The numbers/graphs made no sense to me with what you would see as far as how a virus evolves. None. Even considering the draconian measures (far too many reports of them welding people into their homes to discount this possibility) that were put into place. Their numbers suggest that they were well into the curve on infections/deaths from virtually day one and that they dropped from the peak to the tail end of the breakout in far to short a period of time. All the numbers in between are for the most part nonsense as well and don't fit a viruses growth and dissipation (though as you said there could have been a clustering of reporting that they didn't differentiate when these cases in fact occurred). The numbers involved on the life cycle of a virus just don't lie. And nothing they threw up came even close to what I would have expected to see.

Think I would be more concerned with possibly contracting corona from fresh foods such vegies and fruits. These don't get cooked liked the meats do where the virus gets killed from the heat.

Latest NAM. And I can't believe I am going to say this. But maybe we should also be keeping an eye on the late Fri time period as well?

You are talking the seasonal type of flu that waxes and wanes over the different seasons. We see breakouts of it during the colder/drier months and it dies out with an increase in temps and humidity. These virus do not like the higher humidities.

This article sort of scratches the surface on why I give no legitimacy to any research/info that is coming out of China. Spent roughly a month initially pouring over the numbers/reports/studies and it became evident very quickly that the numbers made absolutely no sense. In fact two studies that I did see that actually were believable quietly disappeared a few days later. The CCP is firmly in control of all this information. So though I might sound like a hypocritical A-Hole for not accepting China data in any of our discussions on here this is for good reason in my mind. After all, how do you debate numbers that more then likely have been drawn out of a hat? https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-coronavirus-research-block-narrative-documents

Just found out yesterday that there is a good chance my 49 year old brother in VA Beach has the virus as well as some if not all of his immediate family. Little pissed that we had to find out about it on Facebook from a post my wife caught, but that is another story. He has been tested twice (first was a throat swab that from what I understand are very unreliable)(2nd one took 11 days to get back from the labs) and both have come back negative. But the doctors/specialists he has seen are pretty confident that he does in fact have covid despite these negative results. At this point it looks as if he may have caught it at a work conference in late January from an individual that attended that lives/flew out of NY. This individual later tested positive for covid. He first started showing symptoms while on an early March skiing trip up in the Poconos with his wife. Symptoms became so severe so quickly that they cut the trip 3 days short so they could come back to VA just in case. By the time they did get back to VA he was so bad his wife rushed him to the ER where they tested him for covid and took an x-ray to find that he has pneumonia. Since then his symptoms have been severe but not severe enough as of yet to warrant hospitalization despite a second recent visit to the ER. The way he tells it, is that there has been a waxing and waning of the severity of these symptoms. There are some days he is able to move around the house somewhat without major issues but then there are other days that just a simple trip to the kitchen/bathroom drops his oxygen levels so low that he is on the verge of passing out. Now I am no expert when it comes to this but after dealing with the health issues and eventual passings of my Mother, Mother in Law and Father in Law these last 5 years I do have an idea what oxygen levels are acceptable, severe and critical. And the numbers he has thrown out for his down periods are at least border line if not in fact severe. These numbers would probably get someone admitted for treatment and observation and not sent home to convalesce on their own. This makes me wonder if we may see an unintended consequence of this fear of hospitals getting over run. Are we going to see that many are turned away when they should have probably been admitted where there was a much better ability to treat them? Only to have these same individuals come back later farther into the progression of the virus where it is much harder to treat and the probability of death increases greatly? Anyway, talking to him yesterday he was in one of his up periods as he tells it. And yet you could tell he was exhausted, short of breath and a little out of it. He has the ability to telework from home and has made several attempts to do so without much success. Considering we are now talking 6+ weeks without any resolution to this he is talking with his employers and they are trying to determine whether short/long term disability should be considered. He also tells me that his wife has had/continues to have the same symptoms as well though a good deal less severe. Both sons experienced symptoms as well but they were of a very minor nature and were gone within a couple of days.

Any picture with a dog in it gets a like from me. Does that make me a dog person?

Could very well be the case. Just one study and it has it's flaws. There are many variables that are not taken into account. But it does sort of fit in with the study of 80% with little to no symptoms. There are others out there as well. So I just used it to give a rough ballpark figure of what we were probably seeing.

Models can not adjust for age when they have little to no samples (45 down to 0 years of age). Especially when you are seeing such large differences with covid between 45 and up and 45 and down. And this was the case here. Enough said on that front. Now I am not going to debate you in regards to Chinese studies. You already know my opinion that they are nothing more then fantasy. In fact I think they are hurting studies now coming out that incorporate them into their studies. Now if you have other studies outside of these Chinese studies I am more then willing to look into them. Just not going to waste my time with those.

Perfect petri dish? Average age on this cruise was 62 years of age. Considering the virus and it's symptoms are much more severe the older you get you don't think this would influence the numbers whatsoever?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

A virus doesn't just explode from day one, that happens well into the life cycle of the virus. The initial stages themselves are very slow to multiple. So scattered initial cases will take several weeks to get to a point that it might start getting on the radar especially when you are not getting any heads up. Also when you are talking 80% with little to no symptoms and 50% with no symptoms at all it makes it even that more difficult. It really is all about the numbers after all. eta: And as far as your Italy (as well as other EU countries) comparison that is why I mentioned the much higher rate of cases streaming in, in the early days compared to the US. They were probably seeing rates far above what we saw in the States.

Don't go out of your way. Enjoy your Easter. Happy EASTER!!!

Kind of lost on what you are saying. But I will try to answer as best I can with what I think you are saying. As far as what seems to be an earlier initial onset of the virus in these various countries vs. the US that pretty much has to do with the fact they were getting a much heavier concentration of coronavirus flying in vs. what the States were receiving. This resulted in a quicker initial intensification of cases as to where it was obvious more quickly that the coronavirus was within the country. Really, the best way to get an understanding of when we did start seeing the establishment of the virus in the States we need to get an idea of when China in fact started seeing community spread within their own country. That is the point the world started seeing the spread as well. China has not been forthcoming whatsoever in that regard. But secondary sources leaking out, and only have been increasing and collaborative, are pretty much establishing that China was dealing this well before they are willing to acknowledge. You can actually look at other sources as well (community services, commodity use, travel, etc...) to give you a timeline as well. Now maybe I am wrong here, but as more time passes and the case builds for my conclusion I am becoming more and more confident on my thoughts.

How good has MD been with posting information as far as spread in the smaller communities? I know up here it has been very spotting and that is putting it politely. About the best gauge we have to get an idea of what Hanover is experiencing is to look at the total cases county wide which really doesn't tell us much at all.