showmethesnow

Because what we think we saw in China, or more accurately what China was telling us and WHO, were for the most part lies. Becoming much more evident as time passes and more collaborating information comes out from secondary sources that China was dealing with and aware of this well before they are willing to acknowledge. You can also look at how we saw the initial stages of the breakout evolve as well as the locations to get a sense that we were in fact at the beginning stages of community spread here in the US. This same evolution was evident as well in some other countries that I looked at as well. Really very little doubt in my mind at this time that China was dealing with this as early as late Nov/Early Dec and we were getting international travelers already spreading it to the far corners of the globe. eta: I don't know what can be more telling then looking at the growth rate that we saw in China after their first acknowledgement. The rapid explosion we saw was far more indicative of a virus that was well into it's growth rate indicating a much earlier onset.

We don't need unpredictable models to predict rain up here in Hanover. Going by Hanover Lore is as accurate as you can be. "When the stench in the air has its say. You know rain is surely on its way." This is one of the benefits of having a paper mill a few miles to your NE.

There has been very little doubt in my mind for a couple months now that we were seeing cases in the States mid to late December. Just about everything I was seeing was arguing for this.

I am pretty sure the nation as a whole is well past the peak infection rates. (I really don't think it is wise to use tested results to get a gauge on that). I have been mentioning a timescale (as of now 3-5 weeks max seven) for several weeks now on when we as a nation as a whole would start seeing a relaxation of the mitigations in place and a movement to a more normal life and it hasn't for the most part changed. Of course different regions, States will have different timescales depending on multiple factors. But I did mention that I thought with the social distancing and how I thought that might impact things there was the possibility we might see a slower ebbing (slower decrease of infection rates) on the backside of the curve. And in fact it looks as if we are seeing this. So in consideration of that I am now starting to favor more towards week 5 vs 3. By week 5, by my projections, we are seeing a 17% infection rate* vs. peak which is within my thoughts of where we need to be (10-20%) to be able to somewhat easily contain any further infections, Of course this will be heavily dependent on having a readily available supply of Johnny on the spot testing that can get results fairly quickly. If we are dependent on lab testing this will make it more difficult to control new infections so we will need to see a lower infection rate/later startup date. So at this point I am thinking a startup back to normalcy on avg in the nation (as well as our region) roughly in the 2nd/3rd week of May. *(Using %s here but what I am really looking at is getting the daily totals nation wide at a bare minimum of under 500 cases a day)

I have said from day 1 that this virus has been far more widespread then the models and the authorities have been aware of. Reports now starting to come out are supporting this. But that aside, I never said things were fine and dandy all I am doing is comparing what we are seeing now compared to peak and nothing more.

You really can't go by the testing. Really just no way to establish a base line with all the unknowns we have seen as far as testing. Much better way is to look at deaths and extrapolate from that which can give you a far more accurate baseline and even that has some issues as well.

Considering the issues I have had with mosquitoes some years I am probably going to hit them hard and often this year. Not knowing if they could possibly spread this virus or not is playing into that. Would hate to go through this whole thing just to have one of those suckers catch us unawares.

What? Thinking about your harvest of mosquitoes and how a drought would impact your little buddies?

Just going by the IHME, which has had its issues, our nation as a whole is well into the downward curve on infection rates. This is in consideration of a roughly 14 day period from infection until death given globally that I noted a couple of weeks ago (Numbers may have since changed). Going by that, as well as hospital resources which can be loosely correlated to deaths, we can get a good idea of where we now stand as far as the infection rate occurring at this time. And at this point the IHME has the national death rate peak as of 2 days ago and the resource usage at 1 day. Which means peak infection rates were seen 2+weeks ago. And this is actually a conservative figure as I have noted numbers coming out of 3+ weeks from infection to death in the US itself. So the more probable number since peak of infection is more like 3+ weeks. Of course these numbers will vary state to state and region to region but all told we are beyond the most perilous part of this virus and well on the way to a semblance of recovery. eta: Just rough figures here but y my estimates we are probably looking at a range on the infection rate of 59% of peak going by the conservative 2 week period above, down to 45% for 3 weeks.

I know. It is hard. But since we did start a thread I have been for the most part impressed that it has stayed for the most part apolitical. Would like to keep it that way. It is a topic of interest after all.

Oh, I can think of plenty of reasons we should start up the economy sooner rather then later. You can go to the top of page 21 and read my thoughts in that regards. But the above idea isn't one of them and it wasn't being presented as so.

Ok, Fine. I wasn't really trying to make an issue of this because I highly doubt this would come into play with our current situation. The infection rates needed to see this possibly come into play are probably 50% if not 75+%. That is if it even did. The only reason I mentioned was just to get a little intellectual play with the idea. Guess that really didn't work out the way I thought it would. eta: And no, I wasn't trying to make an argument for seeing a quicker timetable on starting the economy back up if that is what you thought.

I don't disagree with this. I just brought up the fact that I believed that there is probably diminishing returns the higher the infection rate is when social distancing is first instituted. I also questioned where there might be a point that the infection rate was so great that it could possibly have negative impacts. After all this isn't some simple A+B=C equation. It is more like a complex mathematical equation that can possible bring up some surprising numbers that would seem counter intuitive.

You are attributing your family unit to others. Do you have teens that basically live outside their household 90% of the time. Do you or your spouse engage in interests that differ so many times you are out and about engaging in those activities? Do you both work different jobs outside of the house? I think you would be surprised how much time you all in fact spend elsewhere instead of with your family. But then again, maybe you do spend 95% of your time with your family. I don't know. But it wouldn't be representative of a typical family if that was the case.

Now my thinking on this aspect is very convoluted and is still in the formative state and I have tried for the last 20 minutes to try to word this in an understandable way. I just can't. What it pretty much comes down to is the chances of you infecting someone in your household vs. out in the community. Also comes down to a polluting of the potential hosts within the household and the community. So at larger infection rates in the community you have a reduction in probability of transmitting it. Yet your chances of transmitting it to your uninfected family remain the same. At some point as you increase the infection rate you probably reach a threshold point where the probability of infecting someone within your family becomes greater then infecting someone outside in the community. There are other factors as well but again I am really struggling to present this. Needless to say, I am not necessarily saying that I am correct in my thinking nor that I particularly believe it. I am just saying I can see the possibilities. Really need to think it through much more then I currently have. Would also like to see some hard data come out as well that may either support or refute my thoughts or help me to refine them.

Not to the same degree that we would see if the family is sharing most if not all activities within the family unit. Activities that otherwise each member would be engaging with elsewhere. It really comes down to how many contacts an infected person has with the uninfected as to how likely we are to see infection. Interaction between family members will significantly higher during social distancing measures not to mention what we would see during a total lock down. Thus we are looking at even higher infection rates within the family unit then would otherwise be expected. But then you have to consider if you can catch the viruses off of surfaces and if the virus stays viable for an extended period of time (right now it looks as that is of a low order of probability). If the infection rate of contracting the virus through that method is high then you can pretty much throw everything I said about the increase in contacts in the family unit above into the trash. Really, my thoughts on the Social Distancing are in the formative state and just rattling around in my head at this time. Just trying to understand the obvious impacts and the not so obvious and how to adjust that to my thoughts on this virus' spread.

Excuse me, and what subject are you now on in the Covid thread? Need I bring up your post over in the observation thread? Shame on you.

Looking at 39 at this time. One would maybe guess a low a degree or 2 lower? But considering we now have about 90% cloud coverage it really depends on when that moved in overnight? Low could have been reached well before sun break.

Weather? Who has time for that? But to answer your question, I have no idea, never checked. But just for you I will run out now and see what it is.

To be honest, I really am not sure how to gauge the Social Distancing. I think for the most part it has been a benefit. But there is one sticking point with it and that has to deal with the family unit. Now I hope this is somewhat understandable. If you consider that if one person is infected with the virus within the family chances are very good, one if not all other members, will become infected as well due to the longer close quarters which this family would not typically have otherwise. So considering you have a 4 family unit we are now talking multiply that one person into 2, 3 or even 4 cases. You also have to consider that no matter how well we try to, by far most families will still have some minimal interaction of some form outside of this family unit. So though it may be small, there is still a chance that someone will get infected with an otherwise healthy family unit. And this isn't even considering that one of these individuals may be of a reckless nature increasing their chances substantially. That one infection then gets multiplied by a factor of 2, 3 or even 4. Considering that as well as some other factors I really think it becomes an issue of when social distancing actually was enacted. If it gets enacted while we are still seeing low infections rates it can have a very positive impact. But on the other hand if we are seeing large infection rates when it gets enacted I can actually see it of having little to no benefits if not even possibly being of a negative nature.

Kind of find it an intellectual study at this point. Does that make me a bad person considering that it is effecting so many at a personal level? As far as the virus, I prepared for the worst hoping for the better. Right now it looks as if the better scenario will win out barring any major surprises.

Dear Diary, Day 18 of lock down. TP crisis averted. Have found enough supply to take care of business as one of our plants has leafed out enough to meet demands. Correction to above. After my a** started burning took the time to research plant. Thought poison sumac looked different. TP crisis continues.

Where's the dam DGEX when you need it.

What? Weather? How can you all be talking weather when we have a crisis on our hands. I tell you, some people.

German study just came out that suggests we are massively under counting infections within the US. Says we are only detecting 1.6% of cases and the total number of infected is more in the number of 26 million. Which would break down to roughly an 8% infection rate currently. Haven't looked into their numbers at this time so I have no idea on the validity of the their premises to reach these numbers but I will say the numbers they are throwing out are more in line with my thinking for awhile now. Also have seen other reports popping up in recent days that are also favoring the thoughts of much higher infection rates as well. https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/04/09/german-study-u-s-only-detecting-1-6-covid-19-cases/5120978002/