showmethesnow

There is one thing that I probably should have mentioned but didn't. Been quite a few years since I read a study/report so I am a little fuzzy on the details. But the general gist was that highly deadly viruses very rarely were massive spreaders. Had to do with the fact that they incapacitated then killed the victim very quickly giving very little time for the virus to spread. So you are looking at quick burning fairly localized flareups. Ebola comes into mind as a good example.

Italy and the US banned flights virtually at the same time. Italy on Jan 31 and the US on Feb 2nd. (Mis-posted with the Jan time frame when I actually meant Feb for the US ban.) But I think we might be comparing apples to oranges when comparing the two countries when it comes to the bans. First off, from what I understand we saw a large influx of Chinese nationals from the Wuhan region into Italy just prior to Wuhan being shut down on Jan 23. An influx that we never saw within the US. Now as to why, if we in fact saw this, I have my theories considering Wuhan was deep into the crap at that point. Second, how these bans were implemented probably played into things as well. The US keyed not only on flights out of China but also as well on international travelers themselves and their prior destinations on their trips. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case with Italy where there are indications that there were quite a few bypassing the restrictions by taking connecting flights from other countries. Now the above doesn't even take into account the multitude of differences with both countries in other areas. Genetic makeup, implementation of mediation internally, healthcare, populations density, age, etc..., etc..., etc... So I am not so sure I would look at Italy's ban and their results then maybe try to argue that the ban in the US had no impact.Think that is flawed logic. There are just far too many unknown factors to consider to make that leap at this time. Now we might find after the fact when the numbers are crunched that the ban did have little effect in the US. But I am not expecting that. When all is said and told I think we are going to find it made a significant difference to the outcome as it helped to significantly flatten the curve. As far as the rest of your comment? I really have made a point of trying to avoid any discussion involving the US. Some of my points of view would not be popular on these boards and would more then likely be met with derision if not open hostility. I prefer not to start a flame war so... I will say though, I thought mentioning the travel ban was a safe enough topic considering there is a growing consensus among the professional field that it has made a significant impact. Guess I was wrong.

Horrible news. Really hits home when friends you know are having to deal with this first hand. Stay strong, will be praying for you and yours.

Wish I had your optimism but I think the odds have actually increased if anything. If we were talking in past times when the spread was limited to the speed of foot or horse (barring animal transmission such as birds, bats, etc...) then I would definitely agree given our current technology and resources and the amount of time we would have because of the slow spread. But I fear we are now looking at globalization where travel between countries is very prevalent. Where many travel from one side of the globe to the other in mere hours. So we could have a contagion in it's infancy just breaking out being spread world wide before we are even aware of it. In fact that is what we are pretty much seeing now. We were very lucky with the Corona virus, if you want to call it lucky. We had almost the perfect storm as far as world wide spread of this disease as the Chinese sat on the outbreak for a month plus before they were forced to acknowledge that there was a problem. Then they waited a month plus to quarantine and shut down all travel in and out of Wuhan. Through this window of opportunity we were seeing millions in the way of international travelers moving from in and out of China to all parts of the world. In fact I think the saving grace for our country was the limited ban put in place to restrict travel from China Jan 1'st. Didn't go far enough as far as I am concerned as it did still allow a small flow of of travelers into the States through various loop holes but it did mitigate a great deal the influx of the virus being carried in. If it were me I probably would have also instituted a limited ban on all international travel in particularly from Europe at the same time. Without that initial ban that bought us much needed time to start preparing I feel quite strongly that we would be looking at a scenario in the States more closely matching that of Italy at this time instead of what we are now seeing. Now I mentioned that we were lucky as far as this pandemic. Let me explain why. Now this is a nasty bug, no denying that. But it could have been so much worse. The mortality rate is very low compared to some bugs we have seen recently. Though it does spread fairly easily it is looking as if it isn't a true airborne which is the last thing we want to see. Also it is a form of virus (corona) we are familiar with so we don't have to start totally from scratch into deciphering it as we already have a foundation to build off of. Think that is one reason why we have seen the move to try the various malaria drugs to mitigate the impacts of the virus as they are working off of previous experiences/knowledge. Time will tell if this is a fruitful endeavor on their part but right now it does look somewhat promising in my eyes. Now back to your bolded statement above. Now picture the rapid world wide spread of a virus that we are now seeing as mentioned above. A virus that shares many of the characteristics now displayed by the corona virus. But lets add the mortality rate of Ebola (90+%). Now with Ebola we had factors in play that very much limited its scope. Both its somewhat remote location limiting spread and the rapid onset of symptoms and death (a matter of days) which basically kills off the victims before they are able to widely spread the disease. But take those two factors out as we see with the Corona virus. Where travel in and out of the region is extensive and world wide. Where victims don't become symptomatic until roughly day 5 on average and then take many days if not a week+ to pass away after initial onset. Where the symptoms start off slowly where most are not even aware they are sick and slowly worsen over days. Where there are some indications that people are infectious even before the onset of symptoms. To add a further twist make this virus a true airborne. Throw in a virus that isn't of a seasonal variety where it waxes and wanes. And also add in that it is of an unknown pathogen where we had no foundation to work off of as seen with Ebola in the early days. Essentially we are talking a perfect storm in the way of viruses. Throw all this together and we are probably looking at 50+ % of the population gone within a couple of months even before herd immunity can start playing a part. Hell, even taking out some of the ingredients above still probably results in 25+% gone in a short period of time. And hoping for a rescue from mass immunizations is a fantasy as we are not afforded near enough time.

I really don't understand your need to underplay this. Is it the big one where we see mortality rates of 25 even 50+% as we saw in times past in Europe and elsewhere? Not by any stretch of the imagination. But none the less it is still a very serious situation in both the number of deaths and the impact to the worlds economies. And when all is said and told I would not be surprised to see the far bigger impact may actually be in the aftermath of the virus as we probably see a general restructuring of certain aspects of society, governments and the general world order to fit the new reality. So you dismissing this for the most part defies logic. *** I wish you would quit dismissing corana virus deaths because the victims had underlying health issues. The Corona virus was the initiating reason for these people dying and without them contracting it these people would still be alive. So they count. END OF STORY.

I know this is an outlier opinion from many on these boards but I have felt for a couple of weeks now that we were probably talking a .75-1.25 % mortality rate in the States (With true infection rate and not just tested) as long as we did not allow our healthcare system to become substantially overwhelmed. Other wise we probably double that, 1.5- 2.5%. The next couple of weeks will be key in that regard.

My bad. Thinking stupid on my part. I still question a 15% mortality rate as I think it will be much lower but we probably will never know the true number as more then likely many cases of infection will go undetected. Best way of getting a read on that is probably to try to figure out the total infection rate for the country through modeling and base it off that.

So you seriously see 9+ million deaths in Italy? I know they were hit hard but nothing I see remotely suggests such numbers.

For those that continue to use the information from China in the discussion or even the studies that incorporate this data I probably wouldn't. To put it bluntly they are basically worthless IMO. Keep in mind that everything is filtered through the CPC (Communist Party of China) with the sole intent of looking good in the world's eyes. Any and all detractors from the CPC script within the communities and professional services were stomped on and hard. Despite the CPC's efforts much has leaked out that paints a very bleak picture of what actually occurred. We are also seeing much in the way of peripheral sources (raw data on services within the communities, source allocations, containment strategies, etc...) that collaborates the witness accounts. That said it isn't a stretch whatsoever to piece together a somewhat more accurate idea of what the ground truth was. And that is one that if you increase the numbers by a multitude of 8-10 times you are probably going to get a much more accurate read of the ground truth. Now keep in mind, the above is mostly in reference to Wuhan the epicenter of the original outbreak where the international communities focus was keyed on. But what I question is what we actually saw in other portions of China. Where the information has been sparse and filtered through the CPC filter and there has been very little questioning in that regards from the rest of the world. So what did we actually see? Now I suppose that it is possible that China was able to pretty much contain the virus within the Wuhan region and mitigate the spread elsewhere. But I think there are things arguing against this. First and foremost, Wuhan is the hub of industry and commerce within central China. Many in China travel through the city on their way to other portions of China as it is also a focal point of travel from north to south China as well as East to west. Now consider, cases of the virus in Wuhan started popping up in early December (there are now reports coming out of China of possible cases even earlier, as early as mid-November but let's wait to see what comes of that). But we in fact didn't see Wuhan shut down until Jan 23. So we are pretty much talking a time frame of a month to a month and a half that this virus was able to spread to other portions of China (this doesn't even consider international travel out of Wuhan but that is another story). Now if that wasn't bad enough, what we saw just prior to the shutdown was that upwards of 5 million people left to beat the quarantine. Need I mention how many vectors of this virus this implies that were spread throughout China? The above facts alone argue strongly that China was hit even harder in other regions then they are letting on to especially considering what we are seeing in regards to it's spread in other countries. Now was it a factor of 8 to 10 times what I feel we possibly saw in Wuhan? That I have no idea. All I am pretty certain of is it was worse, possibly much worse then what China is letting on to. Now I am sort of scratching the surface on the above. There is much more out there that implies that China was hit much harder then they care to admit. Unfortunately I don't believe we will ever truly know how badly considering these facts will never be released by the CPC and that doesn't even consider that China may never know themselves as some of the practices they were employing were purposely done to down play the extent of the virus' impacts. For all we know we just saw a very significant humanity crisis in China and yet China will neither admit nor seek help, for fear of looking bad in the eye's of the world.

You too as well.

Weis? Neighbor had mentioned the precautions they had put in place which sound very similar to what you have described. Of course it might be standard protocol across the board at this point.

Might I suggest you take a hiatus from the computer and the TV and the news they bring? You seem to have come too emotionally invested in this virus and it shows. This seems to be quite obvious from your disjointed, conspiratorial and often contradictory postings of late. Take a break for a few days and try to get your head back on straight.

Pretty much in bunker mode here. Went out yesterday for a quick trip to Turkey Hill for milk but besides that my wife and I have been home since last Tuesday afternoon. So am not really sure what measures are being put in place locally besides what my neighbor tells me over the fence and our local community boards. Pretty much stocked up (for a month+ of self enforced exile) on most of our needs 5-6 weeks ago when it was obvious there was probably going to be issues headed our way. Will be contingent on how the virus evolves here but right now I am planning on making a quick weekly trip to the grocery store for a few perishables but if things get bad I can forgo that. Getting bored as crap but at least we are getting some much needed work done around the house.

@PDIII While I do find your posts entertaining I have unfortunately encountered a side effect I wasn't expecting. I have found my IQ drops a couple of points after each one of your posts. I never knew that there was such a thing as a neg. IQ. But lough and behold I think I have now achieved it after your last several posts.

You didn't miss anything.

I hear you can get a room at just about any hotel/casino in the region for rock bottom prices. You should give it a shot for your big day. Of course most of the casinos at these resorts are closed ... Happy B-Day!!!!

Didn't last long here, maybe 15 20 minutes during a heavier rain band. Temp dropped 3-4 degrees during that time.

Actually have snow mixing in with the rain here in Hanover. Currently sitting a touch under 38 degrees.

And here is why I wish we would see politics left off of these boards. Being a moderate Conservative I really have taken issue with several statements you and others have said in the past and now especially this one. Now I don't attack liberals on here and have even gone out of my way not to respond in some cases even though I was chomping at the bit. I just wish that could be reciprocated in kind. Now I am not a fool and have realized for a long time that these boards are heavily liberal which wasn't an issue for me as we for the most part played nicely together. But if this is going to be the new norm (Conservative bashing) then I want no part of it. No reason to come here when I can get all the division and anger on a daily basis out in the real world.

Guess you are one of the well behaved younger adults. Teenagers in general are rebellious as they learn their limits, even those that have had a solid up bringing. That said, schools had to be closed even though it may bring up other issues. Was the far better option then allowing the sharp unmanageable increase we saw in Italy. Keep the flat curve and we should get through this with minimal damage.

Never said keeping them in school was the better option for controlling the spread. Just pointed out the fact that we will still have issues with them being home though it will be to a much lesser degree. And the problem here is that from what I understand roughly 80% of people experience minor if not no symptoms and yet are still contagious. So how many kids are going to think they are fine and head on out the door?

That is another aspect, the children, in particular the teenagers. Going to be very difficult to keep them at home for such an extended period of time without them sneaking out and joining up with friends.

Kind of ironic. We are now putting in place measures to stop the spread by creating social distancing and yet everyone is now congregating in Super Markets/Food stores etc... stocking up on supplies to ride out the storm. Think chances are pretty good we end up seeing a sharp spike in the next week or so from this.

Really don't like giving advice when it comes to other people's money especially when it comes to the Stock market (God knows I have been wrong on occasion). But you might want to reconsider dumping most if not all into the C Fund at this time (maybe 50% into the C if you really want to gamble). Been playing the dips for quite awhile now and have done markedly well over the the normal returns on the S&P. What we are seeing now isn't a typical dip. I think the market stands to lose at least another 10-15% and those are probably optimistic as it wouldn't surprise me if we may be looking at a 45-50% drop when all is said and done. As we are seeing the country is starting to shut down and this will most likely pick up in the next week or so. This alone would hammer the Stock Market but we are also seeing an oil war in progress which doesn't look to end soon which also would typically drag the market down. Pretty bad combo (There are also a couple of other things I have been keeping an eye on (Global tensions, aggressions, over hyping/sensationalism by the media)) So though we will likely see temporary positive spikes here and there in the market with any good news the underlining issues still remain and probably will so for the next several weeks/month at least. I myself right now have our funds safely parked in the G Fund. And though the returns are minimal at least they are returning something and not taking huge chunks away. What I will be looking for is when the market starts stabilizing where we aren't seeing these massive swings. When we can get the swings within roughly a point consistently from day to day trading over a period of time is when I will start considering dumping back into the C fund. I might lose a couple of points on the rebound by waiting for some stability but with the market shedding 24+% at this time there is plenty to work with in that regard. *** The two transfer limit (3 transfers if the last is going back into the G) per month plays into my thinking as well but that gets a little convoluted.

The music really fits in.