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Everything posted by burgertime
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Good news is NAM looks like a great setup. Good confluence in the NE. Big energy in TX. Bad news is it's 84hrs on the NAM.
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NAM looks pretty darn good. It's picking up the CAD event at the end of the run. 850's don't look great but nothing to worry about as it won't get a clue until about 40 hours out.
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Makes a hecka of a lot of sense. Those kickers have come to bite us in the past on a few storms.
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Yea that high in the north is enough...plus good high over the lakes so probably just being paranoid.
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You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
burgertime replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
It could be worse. I've been here 3 years and the best snow we got stuck around for a whole half a day after it snowed....but we run into the same problems here. Mixing mixing mixing. Someone south of 40 on this storm is gonna get the screwing of a lifetime (and not a good one!) I'll bet. -
I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!
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Living on the edge my friend ....but it is looking like it'll be a fun storm to track at the very least. Everything does look good though from confluence in the north and a good high over the lakes. It certainly has me looking at the models haha.
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Rooting for you just always that pesky WAA that kills the CLT area in these storms. It does look pretty good to my eyes though that you get that big hit up front...and cross your fingers maybe it sticks around longer than expected.
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I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end.
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I tend to agree...that's a really good look to me on the NAM at 84...but it's NAM at 84. My bigger worry with this is always IF in early December that can over take the 925 temps. Seems to always screw folks from around GSO south.
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Given its early December p-type is gonna be crucial...like Allan said The mountains might be the only lock right now for all snow. Be skeptical of these runs until you get into NAM territory....or don't and enjoy the weenie party haha.
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
burgertime replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
You're now entering the NO FUN ZONE! -
Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
burgertime replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
GFS PARA looked like the NAM -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Thought now might be a good time to revive this with a good pattern coming up. Sent from my LG-H811 using Tapatalk -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Added section on CAD...not sure how that wasn't added to start with. Also took CR's links and added them as well. -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Fixed a few grammatical errors on the post. Thanks for the bump Michelle! It's getting about that time. -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
I was thinking of that, and in fact I do mention some storms in the post. However I've found when we mention storms even on here it leads to a lot of, "which one was that?" or "was that the one with X". So that's why I just opted for a short drier explanation. Good catch I'll try to add it this week. Do you possibly have a link for that image? -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Figured now would be a good time to add more to this. Added Miller A and B as well as a section on Upper Level Lows. Again those with more knowledge feel free give your edits and suggestions. -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Here is cross polar flow with the ridge going above Alaska forcing cold air south Here is the basic look of a split flow -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Bumping this as we may actually have something to follow so that new folks have something to read. -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
Done. Thanks for the suggestion! -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
It hasn't been updated in awhile. I found a better map service so I might use it as it has a heat map function and you can just input from a spreadsheet which makes things a lot easier. -
Weather References and Newbie Information
burgertime replied to burgertime's topic in Southeastern States
I updated this post to include your question. Thanks!