Random Chaos

50.7/42.4

15mph N/NNW wind

Temp still falling.

For all the people that are talking about "cant have snow after a 60 degree day" back in college I had a upper 70's day followed by 16" of snow. This was in NY state not MD, and April not January, but it definitely can happen.

Wind is really picking up. Temps not falling yet.

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

We need the storm to hit when tides are low.  High tides adds more warm water and won't let temps fall.

Dang, they have a coastal flood advisory up too. Guess no snow. Time to write off winter. Bust. I’ll be back in 2023.

*end sarcasm*

6 hours ago we were saying: "It's the NAM, don't trust it." now we're saying "It's back on board, storm happening!"

How I long for the days when all models were this bad

I'll take my 14" and run!

--

On another topic, COBB output from GFS was indicating 12:1 ratios on average, with some insanely high 22:1 ratios at times. Any chance that will occur? Typically we see 8:1 around here.

Also gale warning on the bay. This is going to be fun!

Where is CRAS when you need something to make the NAM look good?

At least NAM is on its own for now, but I do worry with these systems where we sit on the northwest side being a cutoff forecast challenge. SREFs look good 

Incredible. This -142mph is right next to a +130mph on radar:

46 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

0642 PM COASTAL FLOOD SOLOMONS ISLAND 38.32N 76.45W 10/29/2021 ANZ542 MD MESONET THE NOAA TIDE GAUGE AT SOLOMONS ISLAND INDICATED THE GREATEST TIDAL CREST IN ITS RECORDED HISTORY, REACHING 4.46 FEET THIS EVENING AT 6:42 PM EDT. THE PERIOD OF RECORD INCLUDES THE PREVIOUS HIGHEST CREST, WHICH WAS RECORDED DURING HURRICANE ISABEL ON SEPTEMBER 19, 2003.

I wonder, NOAA Tides and Currents indicates the height was based on high water mark and NWS report on isabel (think it was the SLOSH analysis) indicated Solomons Island guage failed, might be the previous record used by AHPS and LWX is pre-failure height and not the high water mark based height?

27 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Solomons Island, MD, easily beat their all-time record highest water level, with water still rising until 10 pm. Here are the storms tonight's water level beat, from now 2nd place on down to 7th place: Isabel, Ernesto, Ash Wednesday '62, Connie, Fran, and Juan remnants.  

Not seeing anything close to this on official guages:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/inundation.html?id=8577330&units=standard&bdate=20211029&edate=20211031&timezone=LST/LDT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=

Max today MHHW 3.33 ft

Isabel MHHW 5.18 ft

Anne Arundel County, near Chesapeake Bay Bridge:

2.11" and managed to miss the tornado by a few miles.

Here’s some helicopter footage:

https://www.wbaltv.com/article/skyteam-11-video-of-aftermath-of-ida-in-annapolis-maryland/37457104

Not liking the track of that Annapolis area tornado. Way too close to home. Good couplet, debris ball signature. 

4 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

162kt (186mph) maybe 100m above the surface.

132mb vortex message:

URNT12 KNHC 291215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL092021
A. 29/11:56:10Z
B. 28.47 deg N 089.57 deg W
C. 700 mb 2519 m
D. 932 mb
E. 230 deg 34 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 104 kt
I. 059 deg 12 nm 11:51:30Z
J. 159 deg 138 kt
K. 059 deg 10 nm 11:52:30Z
L. 105 kt
M. 295 deg 10 nm 12:01:00Z
N. 018 deg 133 kt
O. 298 deg 12 nm 12:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3038 m
Q. 23 C / 3052 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF305 1409A IDA    OB 11
MAX FL WIND 138 KT 059 / 10 NM 11:52:30Z

1 minute ago, Taylorsweather said:

Will the shape of the coastline as Ida approaches cause any wobbles left or right, and any contraction in the eye  due to frictional effects?

Frictional effects often pull hurricanes right of their extrapolated track just before landfall. Doesn’t always happen though, and that part of LA is extremely low and flat. Hoping not with Ida as that would be worse for NOLA.

Seeing lightening in the eyewall again:

163mph radar indicated at 15k feet.

28.2 / 17.6

9 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Could Capital Weather Gang use your picture with the branch and ruler?  I'm not sure they'll use it bu think it's a good one.

 

Yes, they can use it.

Turned into a major ice storm here outside Annapolis. Looks like around 1/3" accretion.

Freezing rain and temperatures have dropped back below freezing.

I'm ready for Sunday!