Random Chaos

This looks ugly from HRRR (via https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet )
 

7 minutes ago, Sportybx said:

My wife’s cousin just boarded a cruise in Jacksonville on the way to Bahamas . Am I the only one who thinks that is completely crazy ? How the hell does a cruise line even attempt to be out in those waters not knowing the exact tract for the next 5 days ? 

Most likely the cruise line will divert and/or go around the storm. The storm is moving at only 8mph which gives a cruise ship plenty of room to maneuver. But still a bit of a head scratcher.

23 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

I've been thinking about the fact that there's been no sign of an ERC with Dorian. Everybody's been looking for that all day, but there's been nothing. Very weird.

I'm thinking somewhere there's a painting of the hurricane, a picture, as it were... And if you look very closely and carefully at the picture of Dorian, there you will see the Eyewall Replacement Cycles. Only on the picture, while Dorian the storm sails on blissfully and forever unchanging.

Well, it's a theory. I do like the name.

 

One thing that could be preventing an ERC is what appears to be a light consistent easterly shear, which is most evident by the continually reduced convection on the western side. If you think about the properties that make an annular hurricane (and I am by no means saying that Dorian is annular), these are typically light persistent shear, cooler water than what should typically support the system (though not always required), and a lack of banding. This results in a lack of ERCs. With the exception of the cooler water, Dorian has the other properties, and isn't undergoing an ERC (nor does recon indicate any secondary wind maxima developing).

I just took some surface readings of the Chesapeake Bay with my IR temperature gun - not the most accurate, but gives a good idea: 26-27F. Ground is still a bit mushy (not frozen) but the grass is getting very cold too - sub-25F everywhere I checked. Even though the air temperature is still reading 36.4F. I don't know how well calibrated the temperature gun is, but I've used it before and it seemed pretty accurate in warmer weather.

My temps right now:

Several hours after the changeover from ZR to rain, and a heavy line comes through, the sounding still looks very cold, and only a fraction of a degree drop at the surface and this will still be ZR. 6z NAM at 9pm from near Odenton:

2 minutes ago, jackb979 said:

When does the HRRR come in range? 

Around 18 hours before event. HRRRX is up to 36 hours, but...uh... it's at https://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/ which is....shutdown... (unless someone knows somewhere else that currently has it?)

FV3 at 6z looks good too. R/S line slightly north, but at this range 3 runs in a row on a January 1st storm is nice to see! Still fantasy-land, but nice to see!

I did like the look of the upper levels and temps after the 15th better on the weeklies - but maybe we can squeak one out first

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

And the fantasy land storms begin...FV3 is straight porn for New Years. 

Since you brought this up...I'd been hesitating on posting it because we're in the realm of fantasy at 2 weeks out...but....here is the FV3. In two weeks we'll all look back at this post and say "if only that could have been":

18z GFS looks an awful lot like the 6z GFS.

I'm sold on FV3!

Floyd levels surpassed

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

For reference so others know what it looked like:

And the Correlation Coefficient in the bottom left view (the streak of correlation coefficient on the right edge of the blue circle is a radar artifact - it's not moving - but the one right under the couplet is legit):

Is landfall anypart of the eye or the center of the eye? The edge of the eye is now onshore.

Impressive eyewall onshore, but the eye is still offshore. The last 35 minutes of my radar loop the storm looks to have moved maybe one mile.

This has to be the best the hurricane has looked since entering radar; though satellite still isn't that great. Eye finally looks closed off, and vigorous convection spiraling out from it.

Edit:

Here's a video of radar - specifically not embedding due to size:

http://www.vorklift.com/weather/9-2018/9-13-18_10-52pm.gif

When an eyewall is open, the wind field expands and while pressure may stay low the gradient is lessened (and thus the wind field expands while the wind at the eyewall drops). During today's ERC there was a long periods of an open eyewall, and this is one reason why we are seeing the wind field lower than expected for the storm. The result is going to be TS and hurricane force winds at a larger radius, but a less intense eyewall. The eyewall may recover these winds if the central pressure keeps falling, but it's really a wait-and-see state.

Looking at WV loop, it does look like there is some dry air it is ingesting to the SW. This seems to be what is contributing to the ragged appearance:

GFS just pulled the same south hook that the 12z ECMWF did. Um.... 

Since the other thread has a ton of NAM watchers right now... just to prove that NAM is not the worst model out there for hurricanes.... there is always CRAS. And wow is it bad! It already has the storm falling apart into an open wave in something like 24 hours, and the track is equally bad

And now back to our regularly scheduled programming of waiting for the next useful hurricane model

Sterling Radar:

Dover Radar:

Another gauge just south of EC at 13.89"

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDELLIC60

Unfortunately none of these gauges have a MADIS ID to look up their statistcal history.

Catonsville rain gauge now up to 9.87" with 2.4"/hr rate still.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDCATON22

AHPS guage on Patapsco River just east of Ellicott City:

https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?gage=ctsm2&wfo=lwx

Radar estimates for Ellicott City from KLWX are 6.20" and from KDOX are 8.24".