Gyx doesn't make one very optimistic... Of course my P&C has no mention of rain at all but consistency is optional (sorry OceanSt)
On Friday evening a developing area of low pressure will be moving
over the Great Lakes region before moving into eastern Ontario or
Quebec by Saturday morning. There remains significant disagreement
in the ensemble low tracks with this system as a fair number of the
ECWMF individual ensembles have two main clusters, one is located
over the Great Lakes region whereas the other is further to the
southeast offshore of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England at
12Z Saturday. These two separate solutions then eventually converge
with a mean low track almost directly over our area. The CMC
ensembles generally are in decent agreement with the ECMWF in terms
of timing but on average they are a little further east. Finally,
the GEFS ensemble mean low locations are somewhere in between those
of the ECMWF and CMC. The ultimate track of this system will have
large implications on precipitation type for our area as a more
westward track would favor mostly rain whereas an eastward track
would favor more in the way of winter precipitation. Generally
favored the more westward solution in this forecast package due to
the location of the 500 mb trough which will be located across the
center of the country on saturday morning and the 500 mb ridge over
the Pacific northwest. This keeps the majority of the precipitation
liquid, even across the north.
In terms of total QPF from this system, the ECMWF ensemble mean by
06Z Sunday has a swath of around 1" of precipitation across central
NH and ME with between 0.50-0.75" further to the north and south.
The GEFS ensemble mean by this same time is in overall good
agreement with again locally 1" or greater of QPF across central
regions. Finally, the NBM is overall somewhere in the middle but
still indicated the potential for locally up to around 1" of liquid
equivalent precipitation for some locations. This amount of rain
combined with dew points up to around 40F will likely melt much if
not all of the remaining snow and ice that is on the ground in many
locations.