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roardog

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Everything posted by roardog

  1. roardog
    Even the CFSv2 with its super Nino forecast has 1.2 peaking now and falling. Some of the members have it barely above 0 by December.
  2. roardog
    I'm sure he is talking about Tonga.
  3. roardog
    Even the vehicle in the driveway melted away.
  4. roardog
    I remember in summer 2014 when the talk was of a strong Nino coming on, the SOI never averaged strongly negative. If you were forecasting based off the SOI, you would’ve forecasted a weak Nino and sure enough that’s what we ended up with. The 30 day is barely negative right now. It’ll be interesting to see what it looks like this summer.
  5. roardog
    It’s a hinderance to its development though. It reminds me of Spring 2016 when we had models going crazy predicting a strong Nina. The CFS V2 had a super Nina predicted. The PDO never went negative though and the best we could do was a weak Nina that winter despite what the models were forecasting.
  6. roardog
    I guess that’s why I hate twitter. Other than some of the models, there’s nothing IMO that indicates a strongest Nino ever by late summer. This isn’t just random guy tweeting either. It’s Paul Roundy. That’s what frustrates me.
  7. roardog
    This is the kind of stuff that frustrates me. I’d love some reasoning as to why he believes this could be the strongest ever by late summer. It’s late April and the 3.4 anomaly is still around 0.
  8. roardog
    I’m going to be an outlier and say +.9-1.2 peak.
  9. roardog
    So +1.5-1.9 tri monthly peak?
  10. roardog
    What strength do you forecast this Nino to peak at?
  11. roardog
    I never said anything about what you thought would happen. lol
  12. roardog
    Yeah. You were right on with intensity despite all of twitter telling us it was going to be the strongest in 5000 years(maybe I exaggerated a bit there).
  13. roardog
    I remember all the tweets snowman 19 posted last year about how we were going to have a strong Nina this past Winter.
  14. roardog
    I went to Tennessee for the 2017 eclipse. Be prepared for traffic like you’ve never seen. Map out and plan back road routes because if it’s anything like I experienced in 2017, traffic will be at a stand still on the interstates.
  15. roardog
    This is why I don’t agree with people who say we’re in a -PDO period that started in the late ‘90s.
  16. roardog
    December 72 didn't look anything like a Nino across the US. The coldest temp anomalies were in the northern plains. Maybe from the -PDO?
  17. roardog
    I meant the pattern we had in winter not a winter like pattern. lol
  18. roardog
    It looks like the winter pattern is coming back with troughs digging into Mexico.
  19. roardog
    Anywhere on the map between the normal line and the plus one line is above normal. So, the entire east coast is above normal on that map. Obviously, it was much warmer than that forecast but my point was that there wasn’t any big east coast cold and snow hype in Weatherbell’s forecast like George claimed.
  20. roardog
    Weatherbell had above normal temps forecasted for last winter for the entire east coast. Other than maybe DT, I don’t think there were many forecasts for below normal temperatures in the east.
  21. roardog
    I feel like some of the models overreact to the sub surface temps. I feel like that’s what happened in 2012. It also happened with the Nina in 2016. I remember how many of the models in the spring were showing a strong Nina coming. In reality it remained very weak and the PDO remained positive that winter I believe.
  22. roardog
    It reminds me of this time last year when the hype was about how strong the Nina was going to be. That hype didn’t pan out.
  23. roardog
    Isn’t there often cold water around Australia before a stronger El Niño which also correlates to a more negative SOI?
  24. roardog
    I wonder if a strong -PDO such as we have now would hamper the development of a very Strong Nino. What was the PDO like before the ‘72 Nino? I know the Pacific was primed and ready for the ‘15-16 Nino.
  25. roardog
    ‘92 wasn’t a super, just strong. He’s talking about Super El Niño. It was only 10 years between the ‘72 and ‘82 Super Nino though.
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