Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Ah but you have to promise us something if you're wrong--no one sided bets
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Lol There has been unusual ribbing of typos the last week or so...
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Not to speak for him, but I'm in northern Baltimore City (about 7 mins south of Towson), and I got about 5" altogether (maybe 3.5 from the main batch, 1.5" from what fell at night). And March 2018? Yuck...I'm not sure a got more than a couple inches. So altogether, it's been 9 years since I measure anything over 6" (BWI officially hit 6" a couple years ago, but even they got more there than we did here! Kind of a perfect summary of how it's been).
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Yes they are indeed flowed and we no how our flowed storms go...they have a risk if falling apart under 43 hours on Day 4. Know way to tell with those
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This. So to all of you complaining about our complaining, WE HAVE A PASS, hereby granting us immunity from said complaints until we get 7" of snow or more again, so HUSH
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We oughta have a backyardigan emoji for strictly imby perspective, lol
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Alright so we've had no for know (or new for knew) 43 hours for Day 4, and now...back luck! So, how's everybody else's back luck?
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Superstition is not logical, lol And that's what this is. Just like players that wear a lucky sock or cleat--two things that logically should have nothing to do with their performance...thus there's a belief in certain things being bad luck. The whole consternation over starting a thread is one of those things... P.S. I do not have said superstition about starting a thread. Just pointing out what may be behind it for those that do.
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If I gambled I'd bet the house that will not be happening this time, lol
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The overall trend across the models today is only in one direction though (drier less amped). And GFS has been the most amped out of the bunch, so the fact that it's now showing a lower end might be a clue as to what the other guidance will look, imo
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Decent but a clear bleed in the wrong direction. Color me shocked, lol
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Alright that's one (albeit inferior) piece of guidance that's doing the ugly scenario a few of us suspected.
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Yeah I don't get the panic over that. I somewhat understand this Tues-Wed, but goodness gracious y'all!
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Why is it exhausting? It's not like we've seen this pattern get can-kicked or anything (have we?). It's always been after next week, right?
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It's was more that trend of the last three eps runs that made me suspicious. You saw the QPF field shift south and get drier. Ot just feels like one of those things that always gets worse as you get closer from Day. Yeah I know it's technically too soon to give up, but how many times has a negative like that popped up in the shorter range and not gotten worse? Lol
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Whoa, whoa...y'all are giving up on the pattern change already because of what, exactly?
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Yep--that's why emotionally I'm kinda out on it. I can see this thing trending weaker and weaker/washed out. Better to lower expectations
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That thing PSU and Heisy mentioned about the lead wave trending weaker? I'm telling you man that is not the kind of trend that I expect to reverse itself at this range. And that eps gif someone shared earlier shows 3 runs in a row of that precip shield getting weaker and south. Now if it reverses I'll happily be wrong. But until then I'm already halfway off of this one.
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Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward
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South and dry may not be what we wanna see though...could be the start of a trend. We'll see...
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3-6" (or less if the trend continues) immediately washed away kinda feels like 0 inches to me. I mean it will be a nice add to the totals, though! But ya really won't have time to enjoy it even as scenery because of the rain in that scenario. Hoping the lead wave prevails!
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It's never been "least likely". But in setup like this, there's some luck involved. In this case it's whatever is influencing the strength of the wave. Not that a higher snow total in this setup isn't realistic, ya just gotta get a bit lucky. Eh...always felt like we had better luck on the weekends anyway
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It could...although seeing the euro go in the weaker direction is a bit of a flag, no? I'd imagine if it still looks weak by 12z tomorrow, then...
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Darn it. Well we'll just have to try and enjoy the 3-6" for what...24 hours? Ehhh...I'd never kick 3-6 outta bed except in that scenario because it's basically a prolonged thump to rain.
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Shame on you for transferring our insanity onto the poor doggo And hey when it comes to whiplash...I feel like this level of shifting is still more tame than other threats when ya had full blown model wars!
